BoulderWX Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 who could of seen it coming...the only thing that saw it coming on its own was the GFS originally... ha, I know... this is another use case where a sarcasm font would have come in handy.. My original comment was in jest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Goodness the 18z PARA drops the hammer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Goodness the 18z PARA drops the hammer Can you explain? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 The 0z NAM at 48 is bringing the inverted trough into Monmouth and Ocean Counties . Look similar to yesterday's Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Goodness the 18z PARA drops the hammer Really cold. -Epo ftw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 The 0z NAM at 48 is bringing the inverted trough into Monmouth and Ocean Counties . Look similar to yesterday's Canadian Looks like 4-8" for a small part of SENJ.....Hi-res is pretty much nothing though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Gfs says what warmup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Looks like 4-8" for a small part of SENJ.....Hi-res is pretty much nothing though The RGEM is close to the idea the NAM has but is more offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Seems like the EURO and GGEM came west as well tonight, still doesn't do anything for us up here tho haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 6Z NAM Precip . No other model is in the same ballpark . Curious to see who backs off 1st . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 6Z NAM Precip . No other model is in the same ballpark . Curious to see who backs off 1st . Rgem is quite similar but not as far north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Navgem is on board which is saying alot being a progressive model. I think this is going to happen for the mid Atlantic especially into parts of south jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Watch for it to end up more northeast if it ultimately verifies, these always shift north inside 36 hours. The system at 130 hours developing near the frontal boundary may be something to watch too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Gfs says what warmup This is why I'm not so thrilled that the models say "cold" for the future. They seem to reverse course as they get closer. So now the warm up is muted, what happens to the prospective freeze? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Navgem is on board which is saying alot being a progressive model. I think this is going to happen for the mid Atlantic especially into parts of south jersey You mean the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Watch for it to end up more northeast if it ultimately verifies, these always shift north inside 36 hours. The system at 130 hours developing near the frontal boundary may be something to watch too We can watch it, but with no PAC slowdown in sight, odds are heavily in favor of that missing as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 You mean the GGEM.Both. Progressive navgem even gets precip into south jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Both. Progressive navgem even gets precip into south jersey. Barely anything in NJ and less than the GGEM. Don't weenie out on us now Ralph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Barely anything in NJ and less than the GGEM. Don't weenie out on us now Ralph. Go thru past 4 runs on navgem...clearly a trend to bring precip into south jersey. This is all philly forum talk anyway so I will head back on over there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 In these setups I like to look for trends amongst the various SREF members and on the 09z run there was a slight bump north on the mean, but still nothing that would bring measurable precip into the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 And the 12z NAM is well south of previous runs. Doesn't get much into SNJ. These inverted troughs are nearly impossible to nail down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 The only thing that I can say about the +AO in December and January is that the AO has been more positive since the record March 2013 drop. April 2013 to September 2014 featured the longest streak of monthly averages where AO failed to drop below -1.000 in over a decade. Longest monthly streaks with the AO failing to drop below -1.000 since 2000: 4/13-9/14.........18 months 9/11-9/12.........13 months 6/08-5/09.........12 months 3/07-4/08.........14 months 3/04-1/05.........11 months 1/03-12/03.......12 months 4/99-10/00.......19 months With every positive AO reading, the prospect of negative winter AO average as per the SAI and OPI is decreasing. After today's +1.689 figure, the remainder of the December-February period would need an average AO of -1,840 to achieve a winter average of -0.500 and a mean figure of -2.818 to have a winter average of -1.000. Yesterday, those respective averages were -1.765 and -2.722. Through today, 45% of the days this winter have seen the AO at +1.000 or above, while 7% of days saw it at -1.000 or below. In addition, the lowest AO figure this winter has been -1.280. In contrast, 36% of days have seen the AO average above +1.280. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Go thru past 4 runs on navgem...clearly a trend to bring precip into south jersey. This is all philly forum talk anyway so I will head back on over there. IMO, there's probably enough model support to keep open the possibility of a period of accumulating snow in a portion of southern New Jersey e.g., the Cape May area. The NAM is probably overdone, but a scenario where a few inches accumulates probably should not be dismissed outright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 And the 12z NAM is well south of previous runs. Doesn't get much into SNJ. These inverted troughs are nearly impossible to nail down.Yeah alot of dry air to start. Delaware does ok this run. I wouldn't say the precip was "well south" though. Still close to being a nuisance during tomorrow morning rush hour in those areas (extreme south jersey and delaware). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Models all beginning to agree, with the GFS leading the charge, on a favorable MJO progression as we head into late month, with the PV displaced (possibly from the SSWE that just occurred last week). The thaw appears to be canceled and cold may very well prevail. Not much to cherry pick today. We may only have a two weeks window, but a setup appears to be on the horizon that is very favoriable for east coast snow. Let's see how things progress over the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Euro has a shot of artic air Friday and cancels Sunday's warm up....we get rain from a coastal storm Sunday night and then arctic air rushes in Monday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Euro has a shot of artic air Friday and cancels Sunday's warm up....we get rain from a coastal storm Sunday night and then arctic air rushes in Monday.. How is that rain? The 850mb freezing line is east of the city by hour 132. I agree that it may start as rain on the coast but even they flip to snow before ending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 How is that rain? The 850mb freezing line is east of the city by hour 132. I agree that it may start as rain on the coast but even they flip to snow before ending. The surface is in the great lakes...Might end as some light snow. It's 100% rain for us verbatiam...take the snow goggles off. It's not all about that blue line! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Delusional Hey, the Euro is way better on the MJO forecast now than it was a few days back, it was taking it right back into 5-6 again, now less members do that, it may not go into 7-8-1 for all that long but the COD I think is fine with anyone this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 The surface is in the great lakes...Might end as some light snow. It's 100% rain for us verbatiam...take the snow goggles off. It's not all about that blue line! 700mb is pretty cold and 850's are below freezing at the height of the event West of the city. The only warm layer is 925mb to the surface so it's a snow/rain mix profile or non accumulating snow profile, but you have some room for dynmaic cooling in there if you can get robust enough precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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