Absolute Humidity Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Poor Run-to-Run Continuity Can Undermine Forecasts (even the best ones)... Back on December 26, I noted in Message #70 in response to another message in which the CPC forecast had been cited favoring a warmer than normal outcome along much of the East Coast for the January 3-9, 2015 period, that such an outcome was not a "slam dunk," as the guidance had been experiencing less than normal run-to-run continuity in the medium- and extended-range. I noted that the GFS ensembles were suggesting caution and even showing the arrival of "some Arctic air." Indeed, the Arctic air arrived, resulting in NYC having its first consecutive winters with a minimum temperature below 10° in ten years. A comparison of the CPC probabilistic idea and the temperature anomalies is below. In sum, uncertainty should garner a measure of respect in discussions, especially during times when the guidance is showing inconsistent solutions. One should at least know that there is a lot of risk during such times and that things are not necessarily cast in proverbial stone. That was an excellent caution call Don, once again great insight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 It pretty clear now January will finish below avg...the war and se ridge will not bring us above avg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 GGEM is trending towards no storm for Wednesday. Just light flurries for Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 GGEM is trending towards no storm for Wednesday. Just light flurries for Wednesday. Was there a doubt? By tomorrow, there won't even be flurries in the forecast. Welcome to winter 2014-2015. Not that I'm bitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 ECM has an interesting 10 day look to it . To bad its going to change next run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Our January thaw begins on the the 15th as the Arctic air retreats north. NEW YORK CITY-CENTRAL PARK KNYC GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 1/12/2015 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 MON 12| TUE 13| WED 14| THU 15| FRI 16| SAT 17| SUN 18| MON 19 CLIMO X/N 42| 25 28| 19 34| 26 36| 28 40| 30 41| 34 45| 35 45 24 38 It's a short warmup according to the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Our January thaw begins on the the 15th as the Arctic air retreats north. NEW YORK CITY-CENTRAL PARK KNYC GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 1/12/2015 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 MON 12| TUE 13| WED 14| THU 15| FRI 16| SAT 17| SUN 18| MON 19 CLIMO X/N 42| 25 28| 19 34| 26 36| 28 40| 30 41| 34 45| 35 45 24 38 That will not be enough to bring us above avg for the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Both the GFS and the Euro is from the 17th -25th . Pretty good agreement that it`s a week long and then we head right back to BN. Should keep Jan below normal when all is said and done . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 We never got that big cutter to Chicago to help split the PV. Instead we've had storms moving into the eastern lakes and then SE Canada which has only helped to strengthen the PV. As much as people hate cutters, they are absolutely necessary if you want to break up a bad pattern. Otherwise the best we can hope for is some type of over running event and to date they have been poorely timed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 We never got that big cutter to Chicago to help split the PV. Instead we've had storms moving into the eastern lakes and then SE Canada which has only helped to strengthen the PV. As much as people hate cutters, they are absolutely necessary if you want to break up a bad pattern. Otherwise the best we can hope for is some type of over running event and to date they have been poorely timed. The PV just went through a pretty good split. It was the main player from last weeks cold shot. its recovering as we speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 The MJO remains at a very high amplitude (currently Phase 6). Since 1974, there were 12 January cases that saw the MJO reach an amplitude of +2 or higher while in Phase 5 and/or 6. The February snowfall outcomes varied and the development of strong blocking (AO) was key. The following are the February snowfall totals for NYC following the high amplitude Phase 5 or 6 January cases. AO fell to -2.5 or below in the January 20-February 10 timeframe: 1978 23.0" 1986 9.9" 2006 26.9" 2013 12.2" AO did not fall to -2.5 or below in the January 20-February 10 timeframe; 1976 5.0" 1989 0.3" 1990 1.8" 1993 10.7" 1995 11.6" 2007 3.8" 2008 9.0" 2011 4.8" The main point is not to worry so much about the current state of the MJO. It is to watch for the development of strong blocking. Without it, odds would be skewed toward below normal snowfall for February. On the other hand, with the development of such blocking, there would be an increased probability of above normal snowfall. That connection between the AO and February snowfall is based on the 1950-2014 dataset. The MJO cases merely reflect that larger set of data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 The PV just went through a pretty good split. It was the main player from last weeks cold shot. its recovering as we speak. That has been the main problem this winter. Everytime it splits, it recovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Our January thaw begins on the the 15th as the Arctic air retreats north. NEW YORK CITY-CENTRAL PARK KNYC GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 1/12/2015 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 MON 12| TUE 13| WED 14| THU 15| FRI 16| SAT 17| SUN 18| MON 19 CLIMO X/N 42| 25 28| 19 34| 26 36| 28 40| 30 41| 34 45| 35 45 24 38 The thaw doesn't look to be long-duration or impressive in magnitude, unless we get a cutter to surge us over 60 in that time frame. By and large appears to be 40s, maybe a day or two of 50s, which isn't that impressive. The -EPO is already reloading by the 20th-21st. The final temperature departures for January will probably be -2 to -3 or colder for NYC IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 +NAO,+PNA,-EPO by late January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toople Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Does WPO have any effect in our weather? I am just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Good to see the +NAO start heading south, if that's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 But the +AO will keep the SE RidgeWAR as just enough of a factor to limit our snowfall potential so the temperature departures won't be the big story. You saw the SE Ridge pulse up ahead of todays storm which turned out to be rain at the coast. There can still be below normal temps on average with a SE Ridge/WAR nearby, but the gradient gets pushed too far north with an amplified storm that delivers heavier precip amounts. Agree. Great to see you stand ur ground. You have been correct on many points this winter. Even we that wholfsheep guy trolling u Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 So I guess more of the same going forward...with limited snow chances with no neg AO ..plus the Pv is in a bad spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 So I guess more of the same going forward...with limited snow chances with no neg AO ..plus the Pv is in a bad spot I find it hard to believe the GFS ensembles are going to be this wrong on the AO, the average beyond Day 10 is now almost -1 on the ensembles with 0.5 being about the highest any one member shows...I think the AO is going to at least neutral, its just a question of whether its for more than 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 So I guess more of the same going forward...with limited snow chances with no neg AO ..plus the Pv is in a bad spot Gona have to take your chances with the cold . What comes along with these 2m temps is any ones guess . These are the 2M temp We get cold again Jan 24 as the trough is back in the east . I already posted the next 10 days there is no blowtorch the warmth is transient . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Agree. Great to see you stand ur ground. You have been correct on many points this winter. Even we that wholfsheep guy trolling u Cute. Trolling me across boards now. Looking at today's 12z runs, we have some agreement on a -EPO/+PNA in the LR and the EPS wants to dump some very cold departures into the NE, pump the -EPO and continue with high latitude blocking over Greenland. How things turn out is up in the air. YOU have seen many pros and hobbyists with way more knowledge than you, give explanations in great detail as to why things may yet turn around by the EOM. If it provides you more comfort to side with those calling for less snow and more se ridge influence, cool. That may in fact happen. And far be it for me to question anything Bluewave says, as you are right, he has been dead on all winter long. The wildcard, I think, this time, is the MJO, which has not yet been favorable. The Euro now has this moving through phase 7 by EOM, and possibly continuing into the COD thereafter. It comes down to whether one believes the QBO or the MJO is the main factor in governing our weather so far this winter. If you think it is the QBO, you will likely be resistant to believing that backloaded winter forecasts. If you believe that the MJO is the main player, you have no choice to accept the possibility that we may have a backloaded winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Gona have to take your chances with the cold . What comes along with these 2m temps is any ones guess . These are the 2M temp We get cold again Jan 24 as the trough is back in the east . I already posted the next 10 days there is no blowtorch the warmth is transient . Still, a little bit of white to go with those shades of blue would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Cute. Trolling me across boards now. Looking at today's 12z runs, we have some agreement on a -EPO/+PNA in the LR and the EPS wants to dump some very cold departures into the NE, pump the -EPO and continue with high latitude blocking over Greenland. How things turn out is up in the air. YOU have seen many pros and hobbyists with way more knowledge than you, give explanations in great detail as to why things may yet turn around by the EOM. If it provides you more comfort to side with those calling for less snow and more se ridge influence, cool. That may in fact happen. And far be it for me to question anything Bluewave says, as you are right, he has been dead on all winter long. The wildcard, I think, this time, is the MJO, which has not yet been favorable. The Euro now has this moving through phase 7 by EOM, and possibly continuing into the COD thereafter. It comes down to whether one believes the QBO or the MJO is the main factor in governing our weather so far this winter. If you think it is the QBO, you will likely be resistant to believing that backloaded winter forecasts. If you believe that the MJO is the main player, you have no choice to accept the possibility that we may have a backloaded winter. Can't say I disagree with any of this...but as u said I'm on bluewaves train and feel the the reload will be no diff then early january. Will it get cold yes and this month will finish below avg...but the same old song with dry cold and cutters/buzzsaw. Hopefully I'm wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 The warmup looks really muted on all of the models. MJO going into 7 and possibly 8 is great for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 But the +AO will keep the SE RidgeWAR as just enough of a factor to limit our snowfall potential so the temperature departures won't be the big story. You saw the SE Ridge pulse up ahead of todays storm which turned out to be rain at the coast. There can still be below normal temps on average with a SE Ridge/WAR nearby, but the gradient gets pushed too far north with an amplified storm that delivers heavier precip amounts. What will be the impetus for the maintenance of a +AO in your view? Do you believe it will persist through late month and February? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 For us to really torch in the winter (60F+) we need higher than normal heights generally centered south of the area. Over the next week, the most anomalous high heights will be across the nern tier and SE Canada, such that high pressure is present at the surface, acting to keep some low level chilly air around the Northeast. We'll likely have several days of 40s, maybe into the 50s one day, but I'm not seeing a major surge of warmth in the thawing period 1/17-1/23. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Getting the cold air hasn't been the the issue. Getting well timed storm systems to tap into it has. That's what happens when you don't have blocking. It's always a game of roulette. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Getting the cold air hasn't been the the issue. Getting well timed storm systems to tap into it has. That's what happens when you don't have blocking. It's always a game of roulette. I miss 2010-2011 ( well the first half ). Huge -Nao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Almost all rain today and Thursday looking like it will be OTS -- who could have seen this coming? (and I'm not talking about myself).... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Almost all rain today and Thursday looking like it will be OTS -- who could have seen this coming? (and I'm not talking about myself).... who could of seen it coming...the only thing that saw it coming on its own was the GFS originally... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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