January Forecast Discussion

[SnoSki14]

In the New England some are giving this winter till about Jan 15 to produce something and that's a good bet. If we see little to no snow by Jan 15-20 and the forecast pattern beyond is unfavorable with no signs of significant changes then we are likely looking at a below normal snow winter.

Right now unless there's a massive change towards a favorable snow pattern, we can likely write off any historic winter regarding snowfall and the chances of an above normal snowfall winter is also decreasing.

[IsentropicLift]

While the upcoming pattern change may not be one that is more favorable for East coast snow chances, nobody can deny that the pattern change is coming. For one, the last several weeks have featured a screaming Pacific jet into the extreme NW US and SW Canada.

 

With the EPO ridge moving south and the southeast ridge flexing its muscles the obvious thought is SWFE and sheared out southern stream systems.

 

But...the global models are dumping a great deal of energy into the SW US and cutting it off from the rest of the flow. Meanwhile, the Pacific jet becomes refocused in the Canadian Rockies instead.

 

So what does that all mean? As the PV begins to pull northeastward there will be an oppertunity for something to come down from Western Canada and interact with the energy in the southwest. Right now that's showing up in the form of a cutter right after New Years.

 

Of course, it will come down to the timing of the various pieces, but if we manage to get a well timed northern stream wave dropping through the Rockies to coincide with the energy ejecting out of the southwest we would have a substantial storm barreling towards the northeast attempting to undercut the retreating PV in southeast Canada. And while that might not be your classic KU setup, it would certainly make things interesting for the possibility of rain/snow/ice and an assortment of other scenarios and possibilities.

 

We go through this every year. When you don't have blocking you really need the pieces to fall perfectly into alignment. It's 12/26, we have at least the next 60 days to cash in.

[donsutherland1]

I think a KU is always possible and impossible to predict this far in advance - if all the players needed for a KU are on the field at the same time odds increase drastically - all in the timing and locations of these players..........

For January, Almost all of the KU snowstorms have occurred when the AO was negative and the PNA was positive at the onset of the storm.

[Brian5671]

While the upcoming pattern change may not be one that is more favorable for East coast snow chances, nobody can deny that the pattern change is coming. For one, the last several weeks have featured a screaming Pacific jet into the extreme NW US and SW Canada.

 

With the EPO ridge moving south and the southeast ridge flexing its muscles the obvious thought is SWFE and sheared out southern stream systems.

 

But...the global models are dumping a great deal of energy into the SW US and cutting it off from the rest of the flow. Meanwhile, the Pacific jet becomes refocused in the Canadian Rockies instead.

 

So what does that all mean? As the PV begins to pull northeastward there will be an oppertunity for something to come down from Western Canada and interact with the energy in the southwest. Right now that's showing up in the form of a cutter right after New Years.

 

Of course, it will come down to the timing of the various pieces, but if we manage to get a well timed northern stream wave dropping through the Rockies to coincide with the energy ejecting out of the southwest we would have a substantial storm barreling towards the northeast attempting to undercut the retreating PV in southeast Canada. And while that might not be your classic KU setup, it would certainly make things interesting for the possibility of rain/snow/ice and an assortment of other scenarios and possibilities.

 

We go through this every year. When you don't have blocking you really need the pieces to fall perfectly into alignment. It's 12/26, we have at least the next 60 days to cash in.

Agree, but the big cold the next 7 days has largely disappeared and it's a few degrees below seasonable temps and it's snowless everywhere. Sensible weather is largely the same despite a different pattern

[Doorman]

 

Don't believe the HYPE folks

 

gosh dang almighty......this ain't right.....right???

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

 

 

 

[rgwp96]

814temp.new.gif

 

Don't believe the HYPE folks

 

gosh dang almighty......this ain't right.....right???

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

the long term outlook cold  guys are going to go in hiding

[PB GFI]

the long term outlook cold guys are going to go in hiding

Nah we just sitting here watching all the b$!ing and whining.

CPC doesn't match the euro or its own GFS ensembles 2m 5 day temp means in its 8 to 15

Cry among yourselves.

[rgwp96]

Nah we just sitting here watching all the b$!ing and whining.

CPC doesn't match the euro or its own GFS ensembles 2m 5 day temp means in its 8 to 15

Cry among yourselves.

Crying ? Lol If it's not going to snow I enjoy the lower heat bills . I do t think any of my posts have indicated crying or whining

[Doorman]

Nah we just sitting here watching all the b$!ing and whining.

CPC doesn't match the euro or its own GFS ensembles 2m 5 day temp means in its 8 to 15

Cry among yourselves.

And as my friend VWF said

 

I thought Denial....was in Egypt!   

 

Euro Means

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2014122612/ecmwf-ens_T850a_eus.html

[donsutherland1]

814temp.new.gif

 

 

 

I don't think warm anomalies all along the East Coast is a slam dunk proposition for the period in question, especially during a time when the guidance has had less than normal run-to-run continuity in the medium- and extended-range. The Southeastern U.S. has the best chance of being warm, but even a somewhat weaker Southeast ridge and/or somewhat more favorable Arctic Oscillation could easily blunt the warmth from predominating farther up the East Coast. If the ECMWF's January 3-4 storm track leading to a surge of warmth up the East Coast with readings well into the 50s into New England doesn't verify, that would also undercut that scenario.

 

The GFS ensembles suggest such caution is warranted.

 

 

The recent runs of the operational GFS have hinted at the arrival of some Arctic air. All of that is way out there, so much can still change.

[Doorman]

The GFS ensembles suggest such caution is warranted.

 

 

The recent runs of the operational GFS have hinted at the arrival of some Arctic air. All of that is way out there, so much can still change.

Thanks Don

 

closer look at the

GEFS

2m Temperature Anomaly Charts

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014122618/gfs-ens_T2ma_eus.html

 

hit or miss trends

certainly nothing sustained

-imho

[PB GFI]

Crying ? Lol If it's not going to snow I enjoy the lower heat bills . I do t think any of my posts have indicated crying or whining

Not you. The usual suspects. You asked if we were hiding.

So you got responded to

[WintersGrasp]

Thanks Don

closer look at the

GEFS

2m Temperature Anomaly Charts

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014122618/gfs-ens_T2ma_eus.html

hit or miss trends

certainly nothing sustained

-imho

Good thing here though, is that since they are anomaly charts, the cold of January even at normal or slightly below could definitely be sufficient as long as we can spin up a coastal. The trend on most models including the GFS, though I know the idea has been pressed over and over to seemingly no avail, has been to increase the likelihood of colder than normal temps in the 150-200+ hour period. We definitely appear to also be entering a stormier period than we've been in. All in all, though conditions are not ideal for frigid cold to press in while frequent coastals spin up, it clearly will be our best chance of meteorological winter SO FAR, at least. Once we get into February, if similar temp anomalies/storminess occurs, things could become more favorable as well. Sometimes we battle the cold to get snow, sometimes the other way around

[PB GFI]

Thanks Don

closer look at the

GEFS

2m Temperature Anomaly Charts

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014122618/gfs-ens_T2ma_eus.html

hit or miss trends

certainly nothing sustained

-imho

There's a pull back because both see the cutter. So it's cold before and after. But overall when you add it up. It's below on EC from the 29th thru the 10th. Both models see that N of the Mason Dixon line

[rgwp96]

Not you. The usual suspects. You asked if we were hiding.

So you got responded to

Ah ok. I'm just not a believer in long term outlooks . It will get cold and snow eventually . It's winter

[donsutherland1]

Thanks Don

 

closer look at the

GEFS

2m Temperature Anomaly Charts

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014122618/gfs-ens_T2ma_eus.html

 

hit or miss trends

certainly nothing sustained

-imho

The charts I posted were 5-day averages. There are daily fluctuations below and above normal in the mix due to storm tracks. If, however, Arctic air gets involved, a more sustained stretch of daily cold anomalies could develop. Until I see evidence of developing blocking, it's a little premature to buy into that scenario, although the GFS has started pointing in that direction in terms of temperatures.  

[Doorman]

. Sometimes we battle the cold to get snow, sometimes the other way around

Nice work WG

run this loop

updated daily, they give such a great rough sketch

 

money ----right here-imho

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850std1_ussm_animation.html

[WintersGrasp]

Nice work WG

run this loop

updated daily, they give such a great rough sketch

money ----right here-imho

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850std1_ussm_animation.html

Nice link ! I just bookmarked it...and true, the maps there are definitely not supportive of any MAJOR arctic outbreak.....but at the very least do show better odds for us to be at/below normal for a nice period of time. I think much of the confusion and banter between folks over the whole "it won't get cold!" and "yes it will get cold!" thing, is that it may get cold, but more like SEASONABLY cold.....And since we are headed into January, seasonably cold conditions to slightly below, are definitely more than enough to get significant snows. So all in all, I think both sides are correct in their own ways!

[PB GFI]

6Z GFS ENSEMBLE 2M TEMPS .( The Euro is colder the 30 - 4  ). The GFS is N on the EC . The cutter warms us up for 2 days and here is the 7-12 .

 

Just showing you both options . No pattern change there .......

[donsutherland1]

The operational GFS continued to show Arctic air moving into the region in the extended range and the operational ECMWF showed at least a moderate snow event for the region. In the past, either outcome would have been enough to provide a little more hope, as well as the patience to wait a little longer for winter to return. The non-response suggests that, at least implicitly, Winter 2014-15 may already have been written off (and not just in this subforum). Of course, perhaps I'm being foolish still holding to the idea that January could wind up on the cold side of normal (not exceptional, though) and that there is potential for the month to have above normal snowfall.

 

A lot will depend on the evolution of the Arctic Oscillation. If the AO soars to +2 or above during the first ten days of January, that will be an ominous indication. At that point, there will be a clear signal that the polar vortex has sufficient staying power to drive a warm outcome. With no SSW events on the modeling horizon, there won't be much argument against the polar vortex's staying power. Hence, at least for me, it will be that timeframe that will inform me where January is headed.

 

For January, the AO and PNA are hugely important for KU snowstorms. 85% of January KU snowstorms commenced with an AO-/PNA+ pattern. 92% occurred when the AO was negative. 92% occurred when the PNA was positive.

 

For 6" or greater snowstorms, there's a little more spread. Nevertheless, the AO- and PNA+ remain important.

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Great stats as always Don. Thanks for the research!

Fwiw the epo ridge has even less staying power on the last couple of runs. Not liking where January is headed after the first few days....

[SnoSki14]

Great stats as always Don. Thanks for the research!

Fwiw the epo ridge has even less staying power on the last couple of runs. Not liking where January is headed after the first few days....

January will likely end up colder departure wise than December because of the EPO and Nino climo and February typically can often be the coldest departure month of the three, which is why EL Ninos are often so backloaded.

Chances are that we'll eventually get something going unless the AO does spike like Don suggests.

[donsutherland1]

In #80, I mentioned the importance of an AO-/PNA+ pattern for KU snowstorms and NYC's 6" or greater snowfalls (January 1950-2014).

 

That pattern also has some impact on measurable January snowfalls (0.1" or more). The following is the data for the January 1950-2014) period:

 

AO-/PNA+: 1 measurable snowfall every 6.8 days in January

AO+/PNA-: 1 measurable snowfall every 10.0 days in January

 

1950-2014: 1 measurable snowfall every 7.5 days in January

[Doorman]

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml

 

 GFS NAO  forecast

 

 this correlation (relationship)

has very minor discrepancies (disagreements)

 

AO

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_mrf.shtml

[CIK62]

Anyone have the correlation between above / below normal January mean temperature and January monthly snowfalls?   Should probably use +/- 1SD which might be the same as +/- 3degs on the monthly mean, whatever it was at that time, ie. allow for rise in current mean.

Unrelatedly:

I know that reaching Jan. 1 with almost no total snowfall condemns the rest of the season and confers  less than 50-50 chance on getting to the average of 28", whereas a Jan. 1 total of at least 10" gives you a 50-50 chance of a seasonal total of 40"+. (or something like that)

[PB GFI]

Great stats as always Don. Thanks for the research!

Fwiw the epo ridge has even less staying power on the last couple of runs. Not liking where January is headed after the first few days....

Through day 15 .

[Ralph Wiggum]

Yep we have the GEM hanging tough though I urge caution as it has been ice cold lately....no pun intended. The euro breaks it down (cold streak as well) as does the GFS which has actually been on a little roll. Guess we will know in about a week or so whether or not the epo ridge can muster some staying power.

[PB GFI]

Yep we have the GEM hanging tough though I urge caution as it has been ice cold lately....no pun intended. The euro breaks it down (cold streak as well) as does the GFS which has actually been on a little roll. Guess we will know in about a week or so whether or not the epo ridge can muster some staying power.

 

Ralph the EPO does not break down . That is not our problem . As a matter of fact all 3 Ensembles are strong through day 15 .  Our problem is the strong PAC  jet cutting underneath  it and while Canada and the GLC are really COLD and stays cold,   we get cold and from day 3 through  15 . 2 of those days are above as a system cuts to the lakes .  Our issue is that  the strong jet shoves strong system into the CONUS it kicks the ridge up in front of it ( see day 7) and they cut . When there is no system the NEG EPO  overwhelms the EC and it`s cold and dry .

 

The MJO will be into phase 7 by the 15th  " that may weaken the ridge enough "  on the EC so that any weak appendages that sneak under the confluence can come to the coast . It does not mean you can`t snow in the meantime , it means we need weaker systems to come out of the Rockies and get E of the MISS and hope the SE ridge can turn them .

That`s the 1st 10 days of Jan .

[White Gorilla]

Great analysis, thank you. Like DT alluded to before, the QBO has to rise for major improvements in the Pac Jet.

Ralph the EPO does not break down . That is not our problem . As a matter of fact all 3 Ensembles are strong through day 15 .  Our problem is the strong PAC  jet cutting underneath  it and while Canada and the GLC are really COLD and stays cold,   we get cold and from day 3 through  15 . 2 of those days are above as a system cuts to the lakes .  Our issue is that  the strong jet shoves strong system into the CONUS it kicks the ridge up in front of it ( see day 7) and they cut . When there is no system the NEG EPO  overwhelms the EC and it`s cold and dry .

 

The MJO will be into phase 7 by the 15th  " that may weaken the ridge enough "  on the EC so that any weak appendages that sneak under the confluence can come to the coast . It does not mean you can`t snow in the meantime , it means we need weaker systems to come out of the Rockies and get E of the MISS and hope the SE ridge can turn them .

That`s the 1st 10 days of Jan .

[Nygmen]

is it just me or does the para look like it just took a step towards the euro regarding the january 3-5th event?