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January Forecast Discussion


REDMK6GLI

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 The ultimate weenie statement  ... BUT  lest say you are  100%  correct

12z GEFS   DAY 9/10  looks about the same ..so whats the excuse this time ?

Nygmen, on 09 Jan 2015 - 3:53 PM, said:

 

idk if uve been paying attention lately chief but the EPS have been absoulutely worked by the GEFS

 

 

attachicon.gifgfs-ens_z500a_sd_namer_37.png

 

i was referring to the AO tanking on it vs the EURO having a spike per what you said...

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The latest Euro weeklies keep the +AO theme going until the end of the forecast range.

Even the GEFS maintain the PV near Baffin Island through the 25th. Beyond that time

we'll see if the -EPO ridge can build over the Pole and make it a little closer to

Greenland. But who knows for sure. 

 

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2015/01/08/wild-gorge-wind-ski-areas-close-a-look-ahead/

Ugh.  Sounds like it could be warm and snowless no matter how you slice it if that verifies.   Was it the GFS that has the AO tanking?  Snowgoose posted it above.

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dude cmon not trying to disrespect but the EURO and its ensembles and the weeklies and evrything about it has been horrible...tbh it has been the worst out of the 4 big global models ur foolish to listen to it

Keep in mind DT's forecast for the clipper and what ultimately happened.. I've watched him for years - he's wrong almost as much as he is right - not saying he isnt smart but wow do I see him bust..

 

For the clipper he was mocking others forecast - so I pulled his up.. I think you know how his worked out lol

 

All that said - I do agree with his analysis here... I wouldnt be betting on many pure snow events in and around the NYC area the next 2-3 weeks. 

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   saw this  coming  back mid  DEC   

 

  the  PV     going onto a  football    alignment   is     VERY VERY  bad new for  mid / late JAN

 

  happens  alot on Phase 6  MJO / January 

    EVEN  worse the MJO   Jan 5  6 7 8  is  STALLED  on  phase 5/6  ... 

 

attachicon.gifecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.png

 

With all due respect, DT (cough, cough)....you're long term analysis has been disastrous.  It often busts terribly.  

 

  I think to forecast a football shaped PV with the ECMWF /  CFS guidance is foolish given their performance as of late.

 

Also, everyone knows that the MJO has very little chance of verifying (10 days out).

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The latest Euro weeklies keep the +AO theme going until the end of the forecast range.

Even the GEFS maintain the PV near Baffin Island through the 25th. Beyond that time

we'll see if the -EPO ridge can build over the Pole and make it a little closer to

Greenland. But who knows for sure.

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2015/01/08/wild-gorge-wind-ski-areas-close-a-look-ahead/

I know you prefer the weeklies for long range but today's eps and gefs look good in the 11-15 day..ridge bridge..with -aol

I can only hope

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Bluewave, you may already know this but just in case. The euro weeklies are an extension of the previous 0z euro ensemble run. Identical through d15. So week 2 being bad goes along with d11-15 not doing so hot on the ensembles lately. The GEFS has been sniffing out the shifts faster lately. Just like this cold shot we're having now. GEFS started showing it days before the EC. 

 

Now we have another model war emerging with the GEFS digging the +pna/-epo idea while the Euro ens is favoring the coldest anomalies and lowest heights in the western half of the conus (although today's 12z run shifted more towards the GEFS idea). It will be another test of the d11-15 between the 2. 

 

My biggest issue with the weeklies is that if the regular ensembles blow the d10-15 period, week 3 is already going to fail more often then not. 

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well storms have been coming north as of late, so if it is south of us at 7 days out I think we are in a good position. Hopefully it doesn't come to far north

Not much chance of that, it's more likely to go out to sea, there is a piece of energy up near the lakes but it's just too far north and the configuration of the jet and trof doesn't support is phasing in to pull this inland

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The pacific jet has been extremely impressive this "winter" with another impressive strengthening which will be maxing out to over 215 knots at 300mb. This looks quite similar to an event in mid-December where the velocity wasn't as intense, but the configuration was very similar.This will gradually break down the impressive ridging in the West and end this extreme cold...

 

ScreenHunter_104Jan100017.png

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In all candor, the next two weeks or so do not have a particularly wintry or January like look to them...not just here...but across much of the United States.  There's an outside the chance the area could get lucky with a little (but rather wet) offshore cyclone around January 15th...but the next 15 days look fairly bleak at the moment as far as cold & snow go.  I went with about 7 inches of snow for the Park for January...there are still 3 weeks left in order to edge closer to that figure. 

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dude its one run...smh ur the worst poster here

 

When I read your commentary, I am reminded of what the staff psychologist said to Sean Penn in the 1982 flic Bad Boys upon his arrival at the juvenile detention center (after having perused his lengthy rap sheet)..."How you haven't done any time here previously (insert "been 5 posted")...is a miracle."

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In all candor, the next two weeks or so do not have a particularly wintry or January like look to them...not just here...but across much of the United States.  There's an outside the chance the area could get lucky with a little (but rather wet) offshore cyclone around January 15th...but the next 15 days look fairly bleak at the moment as far as cold & snow go.  I went with about 7 inches of snow for the Park for January...there are still 3 weeks left in order to edge closer to that figure. 

Making seasonal snowfall predictions is fraught with peril around here where one snowstorm can bring you to average, but the likelihood of reaching the yearly average for Central Park looks unlikely right now.

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