Nygmen Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 The ultimate weenie statement ... BUT lest say you are 100% correct 12z GEFS DAY 9/10 looks about the same ..so whats the excuse this time ? Nygmen, on 09 Jan 2015 - 3:53 PM, said: idk if uve been paying attention lately chief but the EPS have been absoulutely worked by the GEFS gfs-ens_z500a_sd_namer_37.png i was referring to the AO tanking on it vs the EURO having a spike per what you said... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 The latest Euro weeklies keep the +AO theme going until the end of the forecast range. Even the GEFS maintain the PV near Baffin Island through the 25th. Beyond that time we'll see if the -EPO ridge can build over the Pole and make it a little closer to Greenland. But who knows for sure. https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2015/01/08/wild-gorge-wind-ski-areas-close-a-look-ahead/ Ugh. Sounds like it could be warm and snowless no matter how you slice it if that verifies. Was it the GFS that has the AO tanking? Snowgoose posted it above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 dude cmon not trying to disrespect but the EURO and its ensembles and the weeklies and evrything about it has been horrible...tbh it has been the worst out of the 4 big global models ur foolish to listen to it Keep in mind DT's forecast for the clipper and what ultimately happened.. I've watched him for years - he's wrong almost as much as he is right - not saying he isnt smart but wow do I see him bust.. For the clipper he was mocking others forecast - so I pulled his up.. I think you know how his worked out lol All that said - I do agree with his analysis here... I wouldnt be betting on many pure snow events in and around the NYC area the next 2-3 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Euro weeklies have blown chunks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Euro weeklies have blown chunks yup some people dont get that though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Could be back in biz Jan 25 .Since the GEFS has schooled the Euro right ? I think Hemispheric has . The warm up looks to be about 7 days on the GFS . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 -2.6 temp departure in NYC for January so far -3.5 here after today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 saw this coming back mid DEC the PV going onto a football alignment is VERY VERY bad new for mid / late JAN happens alot on Phase 6 MJO / January EVEN worse the MJO Jan 5 6 7 8 is STALLED on phase 5/6 ... ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.png With all due respect, DT (cough, cough)....you're long term analysis has been disastrous. It often busts terribly. I think to forecast a football shaped PV with the ECMWF / CFS guidance is foolish given their performance as of late. Also, everyone knows that the MJO has very little chance of verifying (10 days out). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 The latest Euro weeklies keep the +AO theme going until the end of the forecast range. Even the GEFS maintain the PV near Baffin Island through the 25th. Beyond that time we'll see if the -EPO ridge can build over the Pole and make it a little closer to Greenland. But who knows for sure. https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2015/01/08/wild-gorge-wind-ski-areas-close-a-look-ahead/ I know you prefer the weeklies for long range but today's eps and gefs look good in the 11-15 day..ridge bridge..with -aol I can only hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Bluewave, you may already know this but just in case. The euro weeklies are an extension of the previous 0z euro ensemble run. Identical through d15. So week 2 being bad goes along with d11-15 not doing so hot on the ensembles lately. The GEFS has been sniffing out the shifts faster lately. Just like this cold shot we're having now. GEFS started showing it days before the EC. Now we have another model war emerging with the GEFS digging the +pna/-epo idea while the Euro ens is favoring the coldest anomalies and lowest heights in the western half of the conus (although today's 12z run shifted more towards the GEFS idea). It will be another test of the d11-15 between the 2. My biggest issue with the weeklies is that if the regular ensembles blow the d10-15 period, week 3 is already going to fail more often then not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Take a look GFS 18Z 250mb loop http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/model/mod/index.php?type=18-GFS-WLD-250-spd-183-1 the upper jet level gives you clear guidance for the 16th 17th system -imho beautifully simple tools that work Euro 12z 200mb for good measure http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/ECMWF/12/US/ecmwfUS_200_spd_168.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Take a look GFS 18Z 250mb loop http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/model/mod/index.php?type=18-GFS-WLD-250-spd-183-1 the upper jet level gives you clear guidance for the 16th 17th system -imho SF.gif beautifully simple tools that work Of course it provides guidance, as long as it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 GFS is closer with the coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Hey. The old saying ..you never want to be in bulls eye 7 days out ..I will watch models but let's see where we are on that event by tue oz suite .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 GFS is closer with the coastal Even if it misses us it's still a pretty intense system... we just need to get it closer to us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Even if it misses us it's still a pretty intense system... we just need to get it closer to uswell storms have been coming north as of late, so if it is south of us at 7 days out I think we are in a good position. Hopefully it doesn't come to far north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Para -run http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfsp®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015011000&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=0 wpc update http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=6&fcolor=wbg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 UKMET is warm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 UKMET is warm: It is warm, but keep in mind the 12 hour increments. All models show the temp rising throughout day... A lot of precip falls before Hr 72 when the UKMET is indicating that temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 well storms have been coming north as of late, so if it is south of us at 7 days out I think we are in a good position. Hopefully it doesn't come to far north Not much chance of that, it's more likely to go out to sea, there is a piece of energy up near the lakes but it's just too far north and the configuration of the jet and trof doesn't support is phasing in to pull this inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Great point Blizz, I keep forgetting that with this model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 The pacific jet has been extremely impressive this "winter" with another impressive strengthening which will be maxing out to over 215 knots at 300mb. This looks quite similar to an event in mid-December where the velocity wasn't as intense, but the configuration was very similar.This will gradually break down the impressive ridging in the West and end this extreme cold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015011000/ http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015011000/ecmwf_T850_eus_6.png Nothing more, my son. But if you choose to think there may be more, you are welcome to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 In all candor, the next two weeks or so do not have a particularly wintry or January like look to them...not just here...but across much of the United States. There's an outside the chance the area could get lucky with a little (but rather wet) offshore cyclone around January 15th...but the next 15 days look fairly bleak at the moment as far as cold & snow go. I went with about 7 inches of snow for the Park for January...there are still 3 weeks left in order to edge closer to that figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 dude its one run...smh ur the worst poster here When I read your commentary, I am reminded of what the staff psychologist said to Sean Penn in the 1982 flic Bad Boys upon his arrival at the juvenile detention center (after having perused his lengthy rap sheet)..."How you haven't done any time here previously (insert "been 5 posted")...is a miracle." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 In all candor, the next two weeks or so do not have a particularly wintry or January like look to them...not just here...but across much of the United States. There's an outside the chance the area could get lucky with a little (but rather wet) offshore cyclone around January 15th...but the next 15 days look fairly bleak at the moment as far as cold & snow go. I went with about 7 inches of snow for the Park for January...there are still 3 weeks left in order to edge closer to that figure. Making seasonal snowfall predictions is fraught with peril around here where one snowstorm can bring you to average, but the likelihood of reaching the yearly average for Central Park looks unlikely right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skinsfan18 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 6z GFS looks much better for Thursdays/Fridays storm. Warm but comes up the coast and not OTS Something to track?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 6z GFS looks much better for Thursdays/Fridays storm. Warm but comes up the coast and not OTS Something to track??No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skinsfan18 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 No No, what does that mean? Certainly up the coast, warm and not OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 No means no, lol. But there is hardly any cold air around. It takes the perfect track and rains. I dont see this one as a threat in the big cities like NYC or PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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