alwaysready126 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 RE: the coastal, we've seen the players now and know how delicate this is. Things to watch out for today: #1. Most important is the speed/timing of PAC energy that slams into British Columbia. #2. Sharpness and duration of the PNA ridge, which are directly impacted by #1. #3. Amplification of the trough along the EC downstream, which is directly impacted by #1 and #2 #4. High latitude blocking above Hudson Bay that locks in the PV over Hudson Bay to help keep cold air in #5. Amount of northern stream energy dropping down from the rotating PV, which is directly impacted by #4. This also has a direct impact on the preceding overrunning event #6. More specific to #5, look for that specific winter saving piece of energy dropping down into Minnesota/Lakes area around day 5/6, as this can mitigate some of the negative impacts of a faster PAC Sheepshead, would you be kind enough to provide your analysis line by line based off of the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Sheepshead, would you be kind enough to provide your analysis line by line based off of the GFS? Sure, but not line by line. Too lazy. GFS was slightly less favorable than last night's 0z run, but had a late phase with the northern stream and was out to sea. Yesterday at 0z, the GFS had no phase/coastal at all, so it's better overall. If we can get the northern stream energy to dive in 6-12 hours sooner, or more of the southwest energy to eject prior to the PAC flattening the PNA ridge, we're in business. The Para was even closer to a big event (its best run yet), but also had a messy H5 phase in the east. One interesting point about the para is that there was a close miss on a triple phase, as the arctic jet phased with the northern jet, but the southern jet lagged behind. GGEM as well...same situation. Overall, PNA ridge has been sharper on 12z models and Northern stream has been more active. These are good signs. But, the PAC has been a stronger player and is flattening the flow in time to not allow any phase in the east to fully mature an east coast low. This is not good. So much potential here. Anyone flatly dismissing the d6/7 threat at this juncture is foolish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Overrunning on the surface of things (pardon the pun) looks worse so far after looking at the 12z runs. My initial inclination was to think the Confluence pressing down was being underdone, and H5 still looks favorable on these runs, so I will stick to that and the thought that this will be more frozen than wet. But, that's just me being pridefully. There will be a battle of air masses leading up to the overrunning. Impossible to say for sure how it will turn out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Sure, but line by line. Too lazy. GFS was slightly less favorable than last night's 0z run, but had a late phase with the northern stream and was out to sea. Yesterday at 0z, the GFS had no phase/coastal at all, so it's better overall. If we can get the northern stream energy to dive in 6-12 hours sooner, or more of the southwest energy to eject prior to the PAC flattening the PNA ridge, we're in business. The Para was even closer to a big event (it's best run yet), but also had a messy H5 phase in the east. One interesting point about the para is that there was a close miss on a triple phase, as the arctic jet phased with the northern jet, but the southern jet lagged behind. GGEM as well...same situation. Overall, PNA ridge has been sharper on 12z models and Northern stream has been more active. These are good signs. But, the PAC has been a stronger player and is flattening the flow in time to not allow any phase in the east to fully mature an east coast low. This is not good. So much potential here. Anyone flatly dismissing the d6/7 threat at this juncture is foolish. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Getting very close to the freezing mark for the first time since Monday even after Upton lowered my high temp to 29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 12z Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 12z Euro? For which threat? Assuming you mean the day 6-7 one, OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 It won't look as good tomorrow, so everyone party now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 If that AO does indeed tank, I like our chance for a pattern re-load Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 If that AO does indeed tank, I like our chance for a pattern re-loadThat's a bold thought... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 That's a bold thought... LOL. Meant to add that with a continued -EPO and a -AO we could get out of this nickel and dime stuff and get some semblance of blocking-any word on the NAO trends? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 LOL. Meant to add that with a continued -EPO and a -AO we could get out of this nickel and dime stuff and get some semblance of blocking-any word on the NAO trends? Not as good, but something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 -2.6 temp departure in NYC for January so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 saw this coming back mid DEC the PV going onto a football alignment is VERY VERY bad new for mid / late JAN happens alot on Phase 6 MJO / January EVEN worse the MJO Jan 5 6 7 8 is STALLED on phase 5/6 ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Dave, how long do you think the mild pattern lasts? Some have suggested only 3-5 days due to rebuilding heights in AK and do you see a full on torch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 ECMWF EPS from WXballs as EXACT opposite .. HUGE positive spike in AO to JAN 25(wxballs- wxbell) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 ECMWF EPS from WXballs as EXACT opposite .. HUGE positive spike in AO to JAN 25 (wxballs- wxbell) We need a total reshuffle for snow lovers...hopefully we see changes going into Feb. The -epo alone will not get it done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Dave, how long do you think the mild pattern lasts? Some have suggested only 3-5 days due to rebuilding heights in AK and do you see a full on torch? he looks at the same data that everyone else does he doesnt have access to something anyone else here doesnt and weve had multiple METS say they believe it will only be a few days...i respectfully dont care what he thinks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 ECMWF EPS from WXballs as EXACT opposite .. HUGE positive spike in AO to JAN 25 (wxballs- wxbell) only positive there is that the Euro has been bad in the LR this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 ECMWF EPS from WXballs as EXACT opposite .. HUGE positive spike in AO to JAN 25 (wxballs- wxbell) idk if uve been paying attention lately chief but the EPS have been absoulutely worked by the GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 he looks at the same data that everyone else does he doesnt have access to something anyone else here doesnt and weve had multiple METS say they believe it will only be a few days...i respectfully dont care what he thinks if he said cold and snow next 4 weeks, I bet you would Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 if he said cold and snow next 4 weeks, I bet you would i bet i wouldnt lol i dont listen to 4 week forecasts there useless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Bluewave what are your thoughts going forward into February? Euro and gefs want to reload and possibly a -pna...thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 the PV over far North Canada has to1) come MUCH further south 2) it cannot be aligned west to east (shaped like a football)I have NOT given up on winter in feb / march BUT euro WEEKLIES Move the mjo back into neutral circle .. ever reaching phase 8 or 1 and then back into 5 and 6 in n FEB .. which is warm and dry and would kill the winter Dave, how long do you think the mild pattern lasts? Some have suggested only 3-5 days due to rebuilding heights in AK and do you see a full on torch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 WRONG he looks at the same data that everyone else does he doesnt have access to something anyone else here doesnt and weve had multiple METS say they believe it will only be a few days...i respectfully dont care what he thinks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 he looks at the same data that everyone else does he doesnt have access to something anyone else here doesnt and weve had multiple METS say they believe it will only be a few days...i respectfully dont care what he thinks The ultimate weenie statement ... BUT lest say you are 100% correct 12z GEFS DAY 9/10 looks about the same ..so whats the excuse this time ? Nygmen, on 09 Jan 2015 - 3:53 PM, said: idk if uve been paying attention lately chief but the EPS have been absoulutely worked by the GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 the PV over far North Canada has to 1) come MUCH further south 2) it cannot be aligned west to east (shaped like a football) I have NOT given up on winter in feb / march BUT euro WEEKLIES Move the mjo back into neutral circle .. ever reaching phase 8 or 1 and then back into 5 and 6 in n FEB .. which is warm and dry and would kill the winter dude cmon not trying to disrespect but the EURO and its ensembles and the weeklies and evrything about it has been horrible...tbh it has been the worst out of the 4 big global models ur foolish to listen to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 The ultimate weenie statement Nygmen, on 09 Jan 2015 - 3:53 PM, said: idk if uve been paying attention lately chief but the EPS have been absoulutely worked by the GEFS not really i could care less if it snows...doesnt take a MET to realize the EPS have been absolutely horrible... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 The ultimate weenie statement Nygmen, on 09 Jan 2015 - 3:53 PM, said: idk if uve been paying attention lately chief but the EPS have been absoulutely worked by the GEFS not really i could care less if it snows...doesnt take a MET to realize the EPS have been absolutely horrible... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 NYGMEN whatever..I posted almost IDENTICAL 500 MB GEFS and ecmwf eps maps S and you excuse is that the euro ensembles siuck.. Ok sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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