Doorman Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Why do you keep on using the GFS? The GFS has been shifting non stop with this event. If this coastal is real, the GFS will not latch on until the last minute. The Euro mean still has a decent signal. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navm.html?model=ecmwf-ens®ion=us&pkg=T850&runtime=2015010900&fh=168&xpos=241&ypos=1133 88 you know i use a blend of the models this system is not a Snowstorm......my track record this season will hold up on this call trust me 1010mb and gone with the next frame on that euro ens loop +NAO = Fish Storms this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 I wouldn't trust the gfs either it's far too inconsistent. It doesn't mean a coastal will happen of course and I'm betting against it but I'd use other models at this time for tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 88 you know i use a blend of the models this system is not a Snowstorm......my track record this season will hold up on this call trust me 1010mb and gone with the next frame on that euro ens loop +NAO = Fish Storms this winter +NAO doesn't equal fish storm automatically. If that's the case, we wouldn't have cashed in last winter. Sure, it's a big player on the field, but not always. A well timed +PNA spike can work wonders with an embedded shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Here's the 0z from 18z.... Still a miss, but if this is the run to run consistency you want to use to forecast long range: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45191-january-forecast-discussion/page-22#entry3242987 Please......forgive me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 I hate to admit it, but Doorman has been spot-on with his prognostications so far. I hope he's wrong, but it seems like the pattern just doesn't want to give us something meaningful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 The coastal is a week away. Lets get through this clipper right now and the overrunning on Monday before we talk in definites about the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 The NWS has rain for the area on Monday with a high of 39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 The NWS has rain for the area on Monday with a high of 39. I guess they aren't seeing the low level cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 I guess they aren't seeing the low level cold. Yeah, right now taking the models for what they show I don't see anyone being rain except for central and eastern LI, surface winds are W-SW through the event, thats not going to effectively warm the low levels west of those areas given the air mass in place. That may change if this wave ends up stronger, MT Holly seems to be more on the frozen train than Upton but this is still far out given the way this year has gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 1001mb that aint strong for snow the 850 looks very warm also ecmwf_T850a_eus_8.png Cant base a snow forecast off of 850 temp anomalies in January....it can still snow if above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Cant base a snow forecast off of 850 temp anomalies in January....it can still snow if above normal. That storm depends heavily on how strong it is, if its weak the air mass in place looks terrible and it may be rain, even west of the track, if it deepens into the low 990s or less there is enough cold air to tap it would be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 What track record lol. You have never from what I've seen made any forecast of your own. Sure it may rain, it may go out to sea, or as snow goose said it could be a snowstorm. Anyone can post images of model runs etc and you do post interesting graphics but it is all one sided is the reason people have become annoyed with you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 What track record lol. You have never from what I've seen made any forecast of your own. Sure it may rain, it may go out to sea, or as snow goose said it could be a snowstorm. Anyone can post images of model runs etc and you do post interesting graphics but it is all one sided is the reason people have become annoyed with you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 What track record lol. You have never from what I've seen made any forecast of your own. Sure it may rain, it may go out to sea, or as snow goose said it could be a snowstorm. Anyone can post images of model runs etc and you do post interesting graphics but it is all one sided is the reason people have become annoyed with youI thought the same thing lol. No offense but his posts lack substance....usually just random maps which usually make no sense with a random quote. Very knowledgeable but his posts need more substance and he actually needs to make a forecast before beating his chest saying he has a perfect track record. His credibility just went down the tubes with that comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 I thought the same thing lol. No offense but his posts lack substance....usually just random maps which usually make no sense with a random quote. Very knowledgeable but his posts need more substance and he actually needs to make a forecast before beating his chest saying he has a perfect track record. His credibility just went down the tubes with that comment. What makes it more outlandish is that for last winter, he was very bullish for each snow threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 dude its one run...smh ur the worst poster here He actually knows what he's talking about, but he's been trolling in here all winter long. He thinks its funny and obviously gets a rise out of the reactions he gets. Dude cherry picks only the models that he knows will needle people. Should be warned and then banned if he continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 RE: the coastal, we've seen the players now and know how delicate this is. Things to watch out for today:#1. Most important is the speed/timing of PAC energy that slams into British Columbia.#2. Sharpness and duration of the PNA ridge, which are directly impacted by #1.#3. Amplification of the trough along the EC downstream, which is directly impacted by #1 and #2#4. High latitude blocking above Hudson Bay that locks in the PV over Hudson Bay to help keep cold air in#5. Amount of northern stream energy dropping down from the rotating PV, which is directly impacted by #4. This also has a direct impact on the preceding overrunning event#6. More specific to #5, look for that specific winter saving piece of energy dropping down into Minnesota/Lakes area around day 5/6, as this can mitigate some of the negative impacts of a faster PAC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 What track record lol. You have never from what I've seen made any forecast of your own. Sure it may rain, it may go out to sea, or as snow goose said it could be a snowstorm. Anyone can post images of model runs etc and you do post interesting graphics but it is all one sided is the reason people have become annoyed with you His forecasts are the maps. He comes out when we weenies are thinking "snow" and cold he shows the maps that say "rain and warm". Notice, he wasn't here the week prior to the cold outbreak. By doing what he's doing, he's saying "rain." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 He actually knows what he's talking about, but he's been trolling in here all winter long. He thinks its funny and obviously gets a rise out of the reactions he gets. Dude cherry picks only the models that he knows will needle people. Should be warned and then banned if he continues. The cherry-picking is what makes it a forecast. He's choosing the model runs that best reflect his thinking -- and he's been right quite a bit. When I saw he was posting again, I said to myself, "uh-oh." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 The cherry-picking is what makes it a forecast. He's choosing the model runs that best reflect his thinking -- and he's been right quite a bit. When I saw he was posting again, I said to myself, "uh-oh." Whatever works for you. I prefer straight talk instead of poems and cryptic messages. But I agree that he is forecasting, in a way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Whatever works for you. I prefer straight talk instead of poems and cryptic messages. But I agree that he is forecasting, in a way. BTW, I don't care for the method either, but it's his way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 I hate to admit it, but Doorman has been spot-on with his prognostications so far. I hope he's wrong, but it seems like the pattern just doesn't want to give us something meaningful. THIS... He has been spot on all year (and the many years I've followed him) - if it's not a popular opinion - people have no time for it.. I'll take his realism over false optimism any day.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 What track record lol. You have never from what I've seen made any forecast of your own. Sure it may rain, it may go out to sea, or as snow goose said it could be a snowstorm. Anyone can post images of model runs etc and you do post interesting graphics but it is all one sided is the reason people have become annoyed with you He pretty clearly said this will not be a snowstorm on D6-D7 - how is that not making a forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 What makes it more outlandish is that for last winter, he was very bullish for each snow threat. and how did last winter pan out? wasn't he right to be bullish? SMH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 This is a weather discussion thread. Take the discussion about people elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 The 12Z GFS is a pretty bad ice event Monday, LI may be rain but everyone from the 5 boroughs west is FZRA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Lol. He got the last 10 days of Dec Right. OK and ???? He got the 1st 15 days of Dec wrong He got the pattern change wrong Never posted on these 2 clippers . What's the forecast for Monday ? You guys Wana slob the ... because you haven't seen a snowstorm yet so that makes him right. Lol. No one has been calling for a big storm. Most posters stop posted here because the baby stuff that goes on here. From a make believe red tagger who adds zero and prob gets slapped around daily in his personal life. To the fighting that goes on when we don't get snow is comical . You lost most of your good posters and have become Accuweather jr. Congrads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 On the road what's the gfs and para showing for the late week storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 On the road what's the gfs and para showing for the late week storm? GFS OTS PGFS a close call skirts the area. Temps are marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Guess not bad thanks ralph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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