SnoSki14 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 No your 850s are minus 2 at hour 102. BTW 18z nam for the morning rush. Careful Not sure how well the Nam verified the previous clipper but it's got the Rgem's support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Don't include Essex it is easier there to get a 6+ Inch storm, historically. But Monmouth and middlessex have been getting spoiled. Essex County is split with inland areas historically doing much better than the Newark area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Tremendous storm signal for the day 7 event on the 12z EPS ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 The 18Z Para took the slightest step away from the warmer old GFS idea for Monday...looking at the last 2 NAM runs at 84 hours they are not as N and W as the GFS and colder...that could be an indicator to toss the GFS idea for Monday but not a guarantee, the NAM may just see the strength of the high better initially, does not mean it will end up being mostly frozen in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Day 7 Snapcast 168 hrs lock it or mock it the data consensus ATM lines up nicely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 gfs with a major step towards the euro for the day 7 storm FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Yup huge changes on the gfs much closer to the euro PAC looks better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Three threats over the next 7 days....gotta love it. Enjoy it while it's here....this is why we hang out here all season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 The GFS looks a FZRAPL event Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 gfs with a major step towards the euro for the day 7 storm FWIWYes. Better PAC...sharper PNA ridge...better EC trough + a faster phase = moderate snow storm. Very close that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 what does the PARA show??? Iit will be the new op GFS for this system..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 what does the PARA show??? Iit will be the new op GFS for this system..... The current Para has not be fully assimilated with its new super computers as yet so who cares. It's mearly a control test model thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 The current Para has not be fully assimilated with its new super computers as yet so who cares. It's mearly a control test model thus far. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2015010900/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_30.png Dity A.control test .....HMMMMMM let me speak to the chief! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2015010900/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_30.png Dity A.control test .....HMMMMMM let me speak to the chief! images (4).jpg These are the frames of interest on the PARA However this model is so horrible ..despite being implemented soon...why bother? Operational GFS ( in operation now) took steps towards the ECM...that is the take away here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 What are the frames of interest here??? it looks Out to Sea and rainy maybe it comes back west??? then what??? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015010900/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_29.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 That's not a bad look one week out decent trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 What are the frames of interest here??? it looks Out to Sea and rainy maybe it comes back west??? then what??? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015010900/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_29.png Para which you asked is NOT out to sea..It just has moisture moving thru earlier.. GFS is out to sea but if it was not with the cold air in place over the east coast it would be a snow maker. And it took steps towards the ECM..plenty of time for this to unfold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Or you could look like the ECM does at 168 hrs out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Or you could look like the ECM does at 168 hrs out.. ecm.png 1001mb that aint strong for snow the 850 looks very warm also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 1001mb 1001mb that aint strong for snow Strong signal for a storm system..as is its 4-6 inches here...Details aside..the point is that the ECM is pointing and has been pointing to a storm system in this time frame.. GFS is OTS right now but that also could very well be its SE bias at play (need to know those model biases ) as i said plenty of time to watch this one unfold Also 850s are what I posted... What you posted is anomoly 850s based on climatology.. 850s on ECM are cold enough inland and just slightly to warm 95 east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 So the Euro shows the storm but it looks like rain? I can't tell by those maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 So the Euro shows the storm but it looks like rain? I can't tell by those maps. Verbatim looks slightly to warm east of 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 So the Euro shows the storm but it looks like rain? I can't tell by those maps. Snow just NW of city, maybe 20-25 miles. Precip gets pretty far west even though track is further east. NW NJ does well fwiw this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 this model stinks .......BAD three lows to one low then nothing???? 2am and I eat wiener schnitzel from Europe I read the WPC from now on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 1001mb that aint strong for snow the 850 looks very warm also ecmwf_T850a_eus_8.png You keep posting anomalies and I'm not sure why. I will try and explain this 1 more time a plus 3 or 4 anomaly at 850 means instead of the 850's being minus 3 or 4 which is normal for Jan 9th a plus 3 anomaly means the 850's are minus 1 or 0 . Now is that warm with precip falling with the BL 32 ? You can see how the 1st question , is that warm? Because they see the a F in orange color on a map. The 0 line is through KNYC it's highest BL is 32 there but why is anyone looking at temps 6 days away . The GFS totally missed this mornings event. I mean missed never saw it. It's cooling down for Monday as per it's 6z. Let's hope we get through these 2 events before we look at the models 6 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 There are 2 chances of snow next week on the models. The first chance will be from the overrunning and the second chance will be from the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015010906/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus.html This is a Coastal 88 ...come on now http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=7&fcolor=wbg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Why do you keep on using the GFS? The GFS has been shifting non stop with this event. If this coastal is real, the GFS will not latch on until the last minute. The Euro mean still has a decent signal. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navm.html?model=ecmwf-ens®ion=us&pkg=T850&runtime=2015010900&fh=168&xpos=241&ypos=1133 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015010906/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus.html This is a Coastal 88 ...come on now ots.png http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=7&fcolor=wbg pp.gif dude its one run...smh ur the worst poster here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015010906/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus.html This is a Coastal 88 ...come on now ots.png http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=7&fcolor=wbg pp.gif Here's the 0z from 18z.... Still a miss, but if this is the run to run consistency you want to use to forecast long range: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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