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January Forecast Discussion


REDMK6GLI

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The 18Z Para took the slightest step away from the warmer old GFS idea for Monday...looking at the last 2 NAM runs at 84 hours they are not as N and W as the GFS and colder...that could be an indicator to toss the GFS idea for Monday but not a guarantee, the NAM may just see the strength of the high better initially, does not mean it will end up being mostly frozen in the end.

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http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2015010900/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_30.png

 

Dity  

A.control test .....HMMMMMM let me speak to the chief!

 

attachicon.gifimages (4).jpg

 

These are the frames of interest on the PARA

post-342-0-09189600-1420781846_thumb.png

post-342-0-77482600-1420781860_thumb.png

 

However this model is so horrible ..despite being implemented soon...why bother?

 

Operational GFS  ( in operation now) took steps towards the ECM...that is the take away here!

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What are the frames of interest here???

it looks Out to Sea and rainy

 

maybe it comes back west??? then what???

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015010900/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_29.png

Para which you asked is NOT out to sea..It just has moisture moving thru earlier.. 

 

GFS is out to sea but if it was not with the cold air in place over the east coast it would be a snow maker. And it took steps towards the ECM..plenty of time for this to unfold 

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1001mb 

 

1001mb that aint strong for snow

 

Strong signal for a storm system..as is its 4-6 inches here...Details aside..the point is that the ECM is pointing and has been pointing to a storm system in this time frame.. GFS is OTS right now but that also could very well be its SE bias at play (need to know those model biases ;) ) as i said plenty of time to watch this one unfold

 

Also 850s are what I posted...

 

What you posted is anomoly 850s based on climatology.. 850s on ECM are cold enough inland and just slightly to warm 95 east

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1001mb that aint strong for snow

 

the 850 looks very warm also 

attachicon.gifecmwf_T850a_eus_8.png

You keep posting anomalies and I'm not sure why. I will try and explain this 1 more time a plus 3 or 4 anomaly at 850 means instead of the 850's being minus 3 or 4 which is normal for Jan 9th a plus 3 anomaly means the 850's are minus 1 or 0 .

Now is that warm with precip falling with the BL 32 ?

You can see how the 1st question , is that warm?

Because they see the a F in orange color on a map.

The 0 line is through KNYC it's highest BL is 32 there but why is anyone looking at temps 6 days away .

The GFS totally missed this mornings event. I mean missed never saw it.

It's cooling down for Monday as per it's 6z.

Let's hope we get through these 2 events before we look at the models 6 days away.

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Why do you keep on using the GFS? The GFS has been shifting non stop with this event. If this coastal is real, the GFS will not latch on until the last minute. The Euro mean still has a decent signal.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navm.html?model=ecmwf-ens&region=us&pkg=T850&runtime=2015010900&fh=168&xpos=241&ypos=1133

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