TwcMan Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 On the GFS the system ejects at the perfect time to come up as we are between the 2 arctic highs, if it came up 24 hours later of earlier it's mostly frozen What's your thinking on this goose? Think this solution will come to fruition, or a solution similar to this? Would really be terrible if it did haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Whats the reason for the sudden warm up? Yesterday we were looking at an all snow scenario of long duration over running , even Upton appeared fairly bullish on that scenario in their AFD. No blocking, no ridge out west. Par for the course this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 On the GFS the system ejects at the perfect time to come up as we are between the 2 arctic highs, if it came up 24 hours later of earlier it's mostly frozen Interesting to see how this evolves in future runs and if there is other model support. In a less than ideal or preferable pattern, placement and timing of those Highs are critical to our snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 On the GFS the system ejects at the perfect time to come up as we are between the 2 arctic highs, if it came up 24 hours later of earlier it's mostly frozen http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015010812/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 One again the GFS shows it`s superior.. at being a POS . Both the Canadian are mostly frozen for Monday . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 What does euro show ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 What does euro show ? 2 plus like the Canadian . Just not warm like the GFS at is does not see the low level confluence . The GFS warms the BL and has no support . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 2 plus like the Canadian . Just not warm like the GFS at is does not see the low level confluence . The GFS warms the BL and has no support . What about later next week? Any juicy changes on GGEM or Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 2 plus like the Canadian . Just not warm like the GFS at is does not see the low level confluence . The GFS warms the BL and has no support . Euro Ens----- brassiere----- http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2015010800/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 What about later next week? Any juicy changes on GGEM or Euro? The storm is on the EC Day 7. Could get 1- 2 tomorrow 2 -4 Monday then worry about Day 7 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Euro Ens----- brassiere----- http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2015010800/ EE.gif ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 track the euro mslp http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015010812/ecmwf_T850_eus.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Never a good sign when temps are borderline on a Day 4 prog with zero blocking. What exactly is there to stop the warming trend like the gfs shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Never a good sign when temps are borderline on a Day 4 prog with zero blocking. What exactly is there to stop the warming trend like the gfs shows. nothing to stop it - also tomorrow might produce another coating south of 80 maybe 1 -2 north of 80 - later next week looks the most promising by that time there may be a 50/50 in place with fresh cold air arriving prior to a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Never a good sign when temps are borderline on a Day 4 prog with zero blocking. What exactly is there to stop the warming trend like the gfs shows. Its more timing than anything...if the system threads the needle between the highs we won't see squat, if its weaker and becomes more sheared out and or slower the next high sets up shop to the north and we're probably frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Never a good sign when temps are borderline on a Day 4 prog with zero blocking. What exactly is there to stop the warming trend like the gfs shows. What is it that you expect living in this area? Here's a hint, 90% of all winter weather events are borderline in this region, and most times the difference between snow and rain comes down to luck with timing. The big seasons are anomilies for a reason. Be happy that we at least have something to look at on the models because that's far from always the case. Some people need to severly lower there expectations of what a normal winter season is like in the Tri-State area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Never a good sign when temps are borderline on a Day 4 prog with zero blocking. What exactly is there to stop the warming trend like the gfs shows.What are you talking about. You still think the pattern hasn't changed. This stuff is getting silly .You don't need F in blocking to snow. Not now not ever. If you think that then you are totally lost. This not Dec and there is nothing but confluence. Due to a NEG EPO that in last 7 plus days has forced low level cold air into Canada and the POS PNA has funneled it south and east. As the precip is falling the 850 and surface are falling because of the constant HP being pushed through the lakes into the NE. The GFS is a low res global model and is warming the BL too fast. Not because it's coming top far north but because it's eroding the low level cold air at the BL to fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 keep up the great work DM - learn a lot from you... Euro shows that without the 50/50 in place - you can forget about next week's "storm" The Euro gives the area 1-3" on Monday and 3-6" later in the week, and we still have several more days to sort all of it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 keep up the great work DM - learn a lot from you... Euro shows that without the 50/50 in place - you can forget about next week's "storm" You think that's what the euro us showing you ? It's the atlantic ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 What is it that you expect living in this area? Here's a hint, 90% of all winter weather events are borderline in this region, and most times the difference between snow and rain comes down to luck with timing. The big seasons are anomilies for a reason. Be happy that we at least have something to look at on the models because that's far from always the case. Some people need to severly lower there expectations of what a normal winter season is like in the Tri-State area. I think most people's expectations by now have been greatly lowered including mine. Having a normal season would be considered a huge win right now. The PNA will be the best thing we'll have going for us but a lot has to go right. One system at a time though maybe we'll get a little bit of snow from the clipper fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 I think most people's expectations by now have been greatly lowered including mine. Having a normal season would be considered a huge win right now. The PNA will be the best thing we'll have going for us but a lot has to go right. One system at a time though maybe we'll get a little bit of snow from the clipper fingers crossed. I'm guessing that you're uspet because we really haven't had anything showing up that resembles a KU event. Some winters we get to average by having 10 smaller events and sometimes we get close to our average with one system. This year looks like the former, and last year would have been the same way if it wasn't for getting lucky with one or two higher end systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 What are you talking about. You still think the pattern hasn't changed. This stuff is getting silly .You don't need F in blocking to snow. Not now not ever. If you think that then you are totally lost. This not Dec and there is nothing but confluence. Due to a NEG EPO that in last 7 plus days has forced low level cold air into Canada and the POS PNA has funneled it south and east. As the precip is falling the 850 and surface are falling because of the constant HP being pushed through the lakes into the NE. The GFS is a low res global model and is warming the BL too fast. Not because it's coming top far north but because it's eroding the low level cold air at the BL to fast. The old AVN used to be a big offender of being too warm with split flow overrunning events, the GFS I believe at one point DID have imprint of the old AVN, it may not anymore after all these years and upgrades Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 I'm guessing that you're uspet because we really haven't had anything showing up that resembles a KU event. Some winters we get to average by having 10 smaller events and sometimes we get close to our average with one system. This year looks like the former, and last year would have been the same way if it wasn't for getting lucky with one or two higher end systems. Of course not I don't need a KU last year was a great winter and most systems were of the 4-8" variety. I'm usually happy with just one 6-10" storm in a season. I certainly don't expect a KU to happen when the AO has been strongly positive. The NAO could be ignored but not the AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 You think that's what the euro us showing you ? It's the atlantic ? post deleted as not to cause any confusion - looked way too quickly... still not thinking we're in a good place for a winter storm for D7 - but time will tell. my interpretation of the Euro was off - that I will admit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Of course not I don't need a KU last year was a great winter and most systems were of the 4-8" variety. I'm usually happy with just one 6-10" storm in a season. I certainly don't expect a KU to happen when the AO has been strongly positive. The NAO could be ignored but not the AO. Do you realize historically speaking how rare 6"+ events are where you live? That Monmouth/Middlesex/Essex County JP that's been going on the last 18 years has clearly spoiled some posters. There is a reason why the seasonal averages are what they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 The old AVN used to be a big offender of being too warm with split flow overrunning events, the GFS I believe at one point DID have imprint of the old AVN, it may not anymore after all these years and upgrades The higher res euro seems to reading the low level air 4 days away. Anyway. Too many caught up in day 7 stuff There's a chance of 1 to 2 tomorrow just N of the city and Monday could be a 2 to 4 type event. I will worry about day 7 on day 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 post deleted as not to cause any confusion - looked way too quickly... still not thinking we're in a good place for a winter storm for D7 - but time will tell. my interpretation of the Euro was off - that I will admit OK. The PAC could b our issue. If it knocks the height down it will flatten the flow on the EC . Something MOD could still be possible but it's a week out w 2 smaller events over the next 4 days. Rather focus there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 The higher res euro seems to reading the low level air 4 days away. Anyway. Too many caught up in day 7 stuff There's a chance of 1 to 2 tomorrow just N of the city and Monday could be a 2 to 4 type event. I will worry about day 7 on day 6 Wouldn't that mean we're more likely to see sleet or freezing rain than snow. I could see how the low level air is being underestimated in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Wouldn't that mean we're more likely to see sleet or freezing rain than snow. I could see how the low level air is being underestimated in that regard.No your 850s are minus 2 at hour 102. BTW 18z nam for the morning rush. Careful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Don't include Essex it is easier there to get a 6+ Inch storm, historically. But Monmouth and middlessex have been getting spoiled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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