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January Forecast Discussion


REDMK6GLI

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On the GFS the system ejects at the perfect time to come up as we are between the 2 arctic highs, if it came up 24 hours later of earlier it's mostly frozen

What's your thinking on this goose? Think this solution will come to fruition, or a solution similar to this? Would really be terrible if it did haha

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On the GFS the system ejects at the perfect time to come up as we are between the 2 arctic highs, if it came up 24 hours later of earlier it's mostly frozen

Interesting to see how this evolves in future runs and if there is other model support. In a less than ideal or preferable pattern, placement and timing of those Highs are critical to our snow chances.

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Never a good sign when temps are borderline on a Day 4 prog with zero blocking. What exactly is there to stop the warming trend like the gfs shows. 

nothing to stop it - also tomorrow might produce another coating south of 80 maybe 1 -2 north of 80 - later next week looks the most promising by that time there may be a 50/50 in place with fresh cold air arriving prior to a storm 

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Never a good sign when temps are borderline on a Day 4 prog with zero blocking. What exactly is there to stop the warming trend like the gfs shows. 

 

Its more timing than anything...if the system threads the needle between the highs we won't see squat, if its weaker and becomes more sheared out and or slower the next high sets up shop to the north and we're probably frozen.

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Never a good sign when temps are borderline on a Day 4 prog with zero blocking. What exactly is there to stop the warming trend like the gfs shows. 

What is it that you expect living in this area? Here's a hint, 90% of all winter weather events are borderline in this region, and most times the difference between snow and rain comes down to luck with timing. The big seasons are anomilies for a reason. Be happy that we at least have something to look at on the models because that's far from always the case. Some people need to severly lower there expectations of what a normal winter season is like in the Tri-State area.

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Never a good sign when temps are borderline on a Day 4 prog with zero blocking. What exactly is there to stop the warming trend like the gfs shows.

What are you talking about. You still think the pattern hasn't changed. This stuff is getting silly .You don't need F in blocking to snow. Not now not ever. If you think that then you are totally lost.

This not Dec and there is nothing but confluence. Due to a NEG EPO that in last 7 plus days has forced low level cold air into Canada and the POS PNA has funneled it south and east.

As the precip is falling the 850 and surface are falling because of the constant HP being pushed through the lakes into the NE.

The GFS is a low res global model and is warming the BL too fast. Not because it's coming top far north but because it's eroding the low level cold air at the BL to fast.

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What is it that you expect living in this area? Here's a hint, 90% of all winter weather events are borderline in this region, and most times the difference between snow and rain comes down to luck with timing. The big seasons are anomilies for a reason. Be happy that we at least have something to look at on the models because that's far from always the case. Some people need to severly lower there expectations of what a normal winter season is like in the Tri-State area.

I think most people's expectations by now have been greatly lowered including mine. Having a normal season would be considered a huge win right now. The PNA will be the best thing we'll have going for us but a lot has to go right. One system at a time though maybe we'll get a little bit of snow from the clipper fingers crossed. 

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I think most people's expectations by now have been greatly lowered including mine. Having a normal season would be considered a huge win right now. The PNA will be the best thing we'll have going for us but a lot has to go right. One system at a time though maybe we'll get a little bit of snow from the clipper fingers crossed. 

I'm guessing that you're uspet because we really haven't had anything showing up that resembles a KU event. Some winters we get to average by having 10 smaller events and sometimes we get close to our average with one system. This year looks like the former, and last year would have been the same way if it wasn't for getting lucky with one or two higher end systems.

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What are you talking about. You still think the pattern hasn't changed. This stuff is getting silly .You don't need F in blocking to snow. Not now not ever. If you think that then you are totally lost.

This not Dec and there is nothing but confluence. Due to a NEG EPO that in last 7 plus days has forced low level cold air into Canada and the POS PNA has funneled it south and east.

As the precip is falling the 850 and surface are falling because of the constant HP being pushed through the lakes into the NE.

The GFS is a low res global model and is warming the BL too fast. Not because it's coming top far north but because it's eroding the low level cold air at the BL to fast.

 

The old AVN used to be a big offender of being too warm with split flow overrunning events, the GFS I believe at one point DID have imprint of the old AVN, it may not anymore after all these years and upgrades

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I'm guessing that you're uspet because we really haven't had anything showing up that resembles a KU event. Some winters we get to average by having 10 smaller events and sometimes we get close to our average with one system. This year looks like the former, and last year would have been the same way if it wasn't for getting lucky with one or two higher end systems.

Of course not I don't need a KU last year was a great winter and most systems were of the 4-8" variety. I'm usually happy with just one 6-10" storm in a season. I certainly don't expect a KU to happen when the AO has been strongly positive. The NAO could be ignored but not the AO. 

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You think that's what the euro us showing you ?

It's the atlantic ?

post deleted as not to cause any confusion - looked way too quickly... still not thinking we're in a good place for a winter storm for D7 - but time will tell. my interpretation of the Euro was off - that I will admit 

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Of course not I don't need a KU last year was a great winter and most systems were of the 4-8" variety. I'm usually happy with just one 6-10" storm in a season. I certainly don't expect a KU to happen when the AO has been strongly positive. The NAO could be ignored but not the AO. 

Do you realize historically speaking how rare 6"+ events are where you live?

 

That Monmouth/Middlesex/Essex County JP that's been going on the last 18 years has clearly spoiled some posters. There is a reason why the seasonal averages are what they are.

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The old AVN used to be a big offender of being too warm with split flow overrunning events, the GFS I believe at one point DID have imprint of the old AVN, it may not anymore after all these years and upgrades

The higher res euro seems to reading the low level air 4 days away.

Anyway. Too many caught up in day 7 stuff

There's a chance of 1 to 2 tomorrow just N of the city and Monday could be a 2 to 4 type event.

I will worry about day 7 on day 6

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post deleted as not to cause any confusion - looked way too quickly... still not thinking we're in a good place for a winter storm for D7 - but time will tell. my interpretation of the Euro was off - that I will admit

OK. The PAC could b our issue. If it knocks the height down it will flatten the flow on the EC .

Something MOD could still be possible but it's a week out w 2 smaller events over the next 4 days.

Rather focus there.

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The higher res euro seems to reading the low level air 4 days away.

Anyway. Too many caught up in day 7 stuff

There's a chance of 1 to 2 tomorrow just N of the city and Monday could be a 2 to 4 type event.

I will worry about day 7 on day 6

Wouldn't that mean we're more likely to see sleet or freezing rain than snow. I could see how the low level air is being underestimated in that regard. 

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Wouldn't that mean we're more likely to see sleet or freezing rain than snow. I could see how the low level air is being underestimated in that regard.

No your 850s are minus 2 at hour 102. BTW 18z nam for the morning rush.

Careful

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