PB GFI Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 The GFS is more or less the only model without the storm, the ensembles show it, maybe 3-4 of them at 00Z...I would not concentrate on that yet but more on Monday's event. The Euro, at least the Op tends to think Monday's event is mostly south of us, I didn't see what the ensembles have, the GFS, both of them are more north giving us snow and sleet. The error is at 126 - the GFS is too fast with a trough west of the BAJA so it tries to lean the 4 corners SW back west and doesn't eject it east The PNA is great on the Euro those height extend into BC . Not sure what all the " PNA breakdown " stuff is about . That's the error , you can see it at 500 . Typical GFS too fast on the west coast with a system so its pinches the SW off . The Euro ensembles are on this for the 6th straight day . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 It shows that major thaw that's now well advertised but it's unclear how long it lasts. I'm guessing 5-7 days. Bring on the thaw because if it's not going to snow it might as well be mild instead of this frigid, uncomfortable cold.Thaw is showing up as transcient so likely will be limited to 3-4 days Scientists use science not guessing. It has recently snowed and looks to possibly snow again next week maybe twice. Im unclear on your statement about it not snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Thaw is showing up as transcient so likely will be limited to 3-4 days The latest models are less transient with it than they had been, it may be more like 7-10 days, the entire period won't torch but most of it may be above normal...but there may be snow threats in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 The latest models are less transient with it than they had been, it may be more like 7-10 days, the entire period won't torch but most of it may be above normal...but there may be snow threats in there.Havent seen this last I saw was guidance from yesterday. Things change quickly....a sure sign there will be a change to a different pattern in about 10 days. I'll take the thaw after this cold...my wallet can only handle so much in heating fuel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 It's been one bad suite (0z) that has shown little or no coastal and a more lengthy thaw. Way too soon to jump on that bandwagon though I am sure we will hear it all day from Doorman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 The latest models are less transient with it than they had been, it may be more like 7-10 days, the entire period won't torch but most of it may be above normal...but there may be snow threats in there. Goose , I respectfully disagree . The 6z GFS has another trough moving through on Day 14 , the Euro control has a NEG coming through Day 12- 13 . The Euro ensembles are back to the NEG EPO by day 13 . 3 days ish . We recycle . If the euro is right and we get that kind of snow cover , the BL probably never gets really warm and maybe a few days of just above . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Paul, that would then not classify as a thaw. It would be more of a reload. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Enough already. Which part of my analysis did you not agree with? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Which part of my analysis did you not agree with?Im guessing the part about trolling doorman? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 So confused we have three threats on the table tomorrow's light snow event, the Monday overrunning and the potential coastal in a week. Why is everyone complaining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Im guessing the part about trolling doorman? Yeah, probably could have left that out. Anyway, EPS was great and we do have some known biases at play at this range. Doesn't mean the storm WILL happen, but we still have a decent shot. Keep watching that PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 So confused we have three threats on the table tomorrow's light snow event, the Monday overrunning and the potential coastal in a week. Why is everyone complainingTrying to figure out the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Time to lighten the mood some... The 00z ECMWF was a MECS for the area. The high res Euro Maps indicate greater than 6" everywhere except Central NJ and most of Long Island. The JP zone was NE NJ up through Rockland/Westchester and into SW CT with as much as 15". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Showing a Day 8 fantasy storm FTL. Did we not learn our lesson yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Thaw is showing up as transcient so likely will be limited to 3-4 days Scientists use science not guessing. It has recently snowed and looks to possibly snow again next week maybe twice. Im unclear on your statement about it not snowing. Sometimes it might as well just be a guessing game. Seasonal forecasting certainly appears to be because there's still so much we don't know. Yes it snowed but we're still way below normal in the snow department. We shall see how the overrunning plays out it's way too far to know for sure same goes with the thaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Both the Ukie and the Navgem are in the Euro camp for the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Showing a Day 8 fantasy storm FTL. Did we not learn our lesson yet? Seriously? this potential has been discussed since last weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Seriously? this potential has been discussed since last weekend. This. It's also a different pattern and no one is saying it's definitely happening. In fact, we've pretty much laid out the case for it happening or not happening. That's what this thread is all about. Right now, it's totally up in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 It's been one bad suite (0z) that has shown little or no coastal and a more lengthy thaw. Way too soon to jump on that bandwagon though I am sure we will hear it all day from Doorman. in all fairness - there was one good suite yesterday and everyone jumped on that... can;t have it both ways.. DM is excellent at this - been following him a long time - and has one of the best track records of anyone I follow (earthlight up there too) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Dealt with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 in all fairness - there was one good suite yesterday and everyone jumped on that... can;t have it both ways.. DM is excellent at this - been following him a long time - and has one of the best track records of anyone I follow (earthlight up there too) This is misleading. The GFS and PGFS, yes. The Euro and EPS have had this event more or less in the same spot for 4 or 5 consecutive runs. The GGEM also had it for several runs before losing it last night for a run. The Navgem has been consistent and the Ukie/JMA are just now coming into range. It as much a threat now as it was yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Both the 12z GFS and PGFS want to warm things up enough on Monday to give us some plain rain. The theme over the last few GFS OP model cycles has been to weaken the high to the northeast limiting any CAD scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Both the 12z GFS and PGFS want to warm things up enough on Monday to give us some plain rain. The theme over the last few GFS OP model cycles has been to weaken the high to the northeast limiting any CAD scenario.Agreed. I just posted in the Philly forum that it would be our luck to have rain with system 1 then miss system two as it passes south. Would be a terrible waste of a decent pattern. But alas, I dont think that happens. Unsure right now which system has the better shot to deliver the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Well the 12z GGEM sort of delivers the goods for a low-mid end advisory snowfall for about the southern 2/3rds of the area on Monday. Most of the activity slips by to the south but the temperature profiles would support snow for most areas with a possible icey scenario in the I-78 corridor. QPF is actually 0.50"+ in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Both the 12z GFS and PGFS want to warm things up enough on Monday to give us some plain rain. The theme over the last few GFS OP model cycles has been to weaken the high to the northeast limiting any CAD scenario. Thankfully this has little support . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Well the 12z GGEM sort of delivers the goods for a low-mid end advisory snowfall for about the southern 2/3rds of the area on Monday. Most of the activity slips by to the south but the temperature profiles would support snow for most areas with a possible icey scenario in the I-78 corridor. QPF is actually 0.50"+ in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 The 12Z GFS ensembles mostly support the Op for Monday, they have all come in significantly warmer although a few would be cold enough for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 The 12Z GFS ensembles mostly support the Op for Monday, they have all come in significantly warmer although a few would be cold enough for snow. Whats the reason for the sudden warm up? Yesterday we were looking at an all snow scenario of long duration over running , even Upton appeared fairly bullish on that scenario in their AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Whats the reason for the sudden warm up? Yesterday we were looking at an all snow scenario of long duration over running , even Upton appeared fairly bullish on that scenario in their AFD. A lot of if has to do with placement of the departing high pressure system to our northeast. A few days ago it was in a more favorable position for CAD. The GFS has shifted towards a more progressive scenario and that's also allowing for more northern stream influince. So you have both the high shifting eastward limiting cold air damming and the shortwave shearing out some as the grinder tries to drop in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Whats the reason for the sudden warm up? Yesterday we were looking at an all snow scenario of long duration over running , even Upton appeared fairly bullish on that scenario in their AFD. On the GFS the system ejects at the perfect time to come up as we are between the 2 arctic highs, if it came up 24 hours later of earlier it's mostly frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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