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January Forecast Discussion


REDMK6GLI

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ahh another voice of reason - the bolded I can agree with. Without the 50/50 - you need a perfect track, esp immediate NYC metro.. People see a model suite that brings them snow and pounce - too funny

 

Yeah, we are going to need to see that AO dip negative to have a shot at viable 50/50's.

The other alternative would be more of an Amarillo to Delmarva track to boost our front

end thump potential like we saw with the one storm last December.

 

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Impressive squalls with convective features along the arctic front this afternoon. This picture taken out of my window in Queens, looking northwest. Bursts of snow have been observed across much of the area ahead of this arctic boundary. This is what an arctic front looks like:

 

 

Nice pic.  Ditto in C NJ.

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Euro control is 3- 6 area wide with wave 1 on Monday .

 

The Op Euro is pretty damn good...don't buy into that being rain, the only period that really would be rain is when that funky second wave around 135 hours forms off NJ and forces more warm air in and that wave may never even develop...its very possible by 108 hours we'd be snowing, thats a very good  long duration overrunning setup if you believe the Euro, unfortunately the models have sucked beyond 84-90 hours so its hard to believe anything yet.

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The Op Euro is pretty damn good...don't buy into that being rain, the only period that really would be rain is when that funky second wave around 135 hours forms off NJ and forces more warm air in and that wave may never even develop...its very possible by 108 hours we'd be snowing, thats a very good  long duration overrunning setup if you believe the Euro, unfortunately the models have sucked beyond 84-90 hours so its hard to believe anything yet.

 

I think wave 1 is 3 to 6 ( there is snow and frozen precip in the air for 30 hours )  it could probably end as some drizzle as some of the cold at the BL erodes BUT  WAVE 2  which is 8 days away has the " potential " to be a show .

 

Willing to look at the Fri Clipper then the Monday over running  event before going onto  the day 8 system

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EPS is an strong signal for the overrunning and coastal storms. 

 

The Canadian may have scored another win, its not likely that it's very dynamic big storm setup inside 150 will verify, but its idea of ejecting that energy out of Texas before the high can escape may be correct, the other models have trended that way today.  It was hard to believe that energy was going to get stuck down there in the pattern we have. 

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Word of caution to all the lovers of warm weather . We are below normal and active through day 10 , there is moderation 11- 12 -13 . but as per the Euro ensembles those positive height rises retreat back towards Hudson Bay , The PNA rises there`s a new NEG EPO developing and  the trough is already coming out so by day 14 and 15 the warm up is over .

 

A little side note , if we wave 1 and 2 put down some " deep " snow cover it will mute  the day 11- 13 warm up as the BL will not spike the same as if there was bare ground .

 

Fri Clipper

Mon over running

Day 8 ......................

Good luck .

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With regard to the CPC outlook for the January 3-9 period that showed warm anomalies up the entire East Coast (to Downeast Maine), as a reminder that poor run-to-run continuity can undermine such forecasts, after today, such cities as Boston, New York, and Philadelphia will have cold anomalies for the 1/3-7 portion of this period. Those cold anomalies will increase tomorrow and Friday. If anything, the GFS ensembles from 12/26 appear poised to have performed very well in that they showed cold anomalies for New England down into the Middle Atlantic region. In any case, once the data is available, I'll post a comparative map. Uncertainty can be a big factor to consider when one is reviewing forecasts. Even the best (e.g., CPC) can miss during periods of high uncertainty.

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That is a scary sounding for the NYC area at 135 hours on the 18Z GFS...it very well may be sleet but that is amazing that the GFS can actually see that setup this far out, usually it'll think the surface is above 32 this far out, shows how strong the high over NNE is.

NWS hazards outlook

shows the concern (possibly extended for our region? )

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours.png

 

 

 

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That is a scary sounding for the NYC area at 135 hours on the 18Z GFS...it very well may be sleet but that is amazing that the GFS can actually see that setup this far out, usually it'll think the surface is above 32 this far out, shows how strong the high over NNE is.

I'm worried about the depth of the cold air. With 925mb temps above freezing that's a ZR profile.
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checked the 6 z gfs and still don't see this storm.

Where is the storm :snowing:

It shows that major thaw that's now well advertised but it's unclear how long it lasts. I'm guessing 5-7 days. Bring on the thaw because if it's not going to snow it might as well be mild instead of this frigid, uncomfortable cold.

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The GFS is more or less the only model without the storm, the ensembles show it, maybe 3-4 of them at 00Z...I would not concentrate on that yet but more on Monday's event.  The Euro, at least the Op tends to think Monday's event is mostly south of us, I didn't see what the ensembles have, the GFS, both of them are more north giving us snow and sleet.

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