bluewave Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 ahh another voice of reason - the bolded I can agree with. Without the 50/50 - you need a perfect track, esp immediate NYC metro.. People see a model suite that brings them snow and pounce - too funny Yeah, we are going to need to see that AO dip negative to have a shot at viable 50/50's. The other alternative would be more of an Amarillo to Delmarva track to boost our front end thump potential like we saw with the one storm last December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stemwinder Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Impressive squalls with convective features along the arctic front this afternoon. This picture taken out of my window in Queens, looking northwest. Bursts of snow have been observed across much of the area ahead of this arctic boundary. This is what an arctic front looks like: Nice pic. Ditto in C NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015010712/ecmwf_T850a_eus.html http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015010712/ecmwf_T850a_eus_9.png bash again http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015010712/ecmwf_T850a_eus_10.png Cherry-picking again. Positive 850mb anomalies in the middle of January does not mean rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Euro control is 3- 6 area wide with wave 1 on Monday . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Euro eps is plenty cold for the Monday overrunning and huge storm signal for the late week storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 EPS is an strong signal for the overrunning and coastal storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Euro control is 3- 6 area wide with wave 1 on Monday . The Op Euro is pretty damn good...don't buy into that being rain, the only period that really would be rain is when that funky second wave around 135 hours forms off NJ and forces more warm air in and that wave may never even develop...its very possible by 108 hours we'd be snowing, thats a very good long duration overrunning setup if you believe the Euro, unfortunately the models have sucked beyond 84-90 hours so its hard to believe anything yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Individuals clustered around the BM. Still a long ways out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 The Op Euro is pretty damn good...don't buy into that being rain, the only period that really would be rain is when that funky second wave around 135 hours forms off NJ and forces more warm air in and that wave may never even develop...its very possible by 108 hours we'd be snowing, thats a very good long duration overrunning setup if you believe the Euro, unfortunately the models have sucked beyond 84-90 hours so its hard to believe anything yet. I think wave 1 is 3 to 6 ( there is snow and frozen precip in the air for 30 hours ) it could probably end as some drizzle as some of the cold at the BL erodes BUT WAVE 2 which is 8 days away has the " potential " to be a show . Willing to look at the Fri Clipper then the Monday over running event before going onto the day 8 system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 EPS is an strong signal for the overrunning and coastal storms. The Canadian may have scored another win, its not likely that it's very dynamic big storm setup inside 150 will verify, but its idea of ejecting that energy out of Texas before the high can escape may be correct, the other models have trended that way today. It was hard to believe that energy was going to get stuck down there in the pattern we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Its January. There is cold air around. There is a storm to track. To those who wrote off winter.... We are due for a nice overrunning event ice and all. This has a 94 look to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Word of caution to all the lovers of warm weather . We are below normal and active through day 10 , there is moderation 11- 12 -13 . but as per the Euro ensembles those positive height rises retreat back towards Hudson Bay , The PNA rises there`s a new NEG EPO developing and the trough is already coming out so by day 14 and 15 the warm up is over . A little side note , if we wave 1 and 2 put down some " deep " snow cover it will mute the day 11- 13 warm up as the BL will not spike the same as if there was bare ground . Fri Clipper Mon over running Day 8 ...................... Good luck . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Just insane what could happen between Christmas and Now. Had a nice snow quall earlier. Gusted to about 45mph. Snow was blowing everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Cherry-picking again. Positive 850mb anomalies in the middle of January does not mean rain. Using one op euro run means snow???? http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1420666263 http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9nhwbg_conus.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Arctic front. Queens, NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 The discussion was the ensembles showing support for the overrunning and potential coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 The 18z GFS is a lot more robust with the system for Monday/Tuesday. Still showing a setup that would be mostly ice just NW of the city. This run is actually a good bit colder as the coastal passes well offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 With regard to the CPC outlook for the January 3-9 period that showed warm anomalies up the entire East Coast (to Downeast Maine), as a reminder that poor run-to-run continuity can undermine such forecasts, after today, such cities as Boston, New York, and Philadelphia will have cold anomalies for the 1/3-7 portion of this period. Those cold anomalies will increase tomorrow and Friday. If anything, the GFS ensembles from 12/26 appear poised to have performed very well in that they showed cold anomalies for New England down into the Middle Atlantic region. In any case, once the data is available, I'll post a comparative map. Uncertainty can be a big factor to consider when one is reviewing forecasts. Even the best (e.g., CPC) can miss during periods of high uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/model/mod/index.php?type=18-GFS-NA-850-temp-0-1 run the loop and understand my vibe (half empty half full) GFS 18z 850mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 That is a scary sounding for the NYC area at 135 hours on the 18Z GFS...it very well may be sleet but that is amazing that the GFS can actually see that setup this far out, usually it'll think the surface is above 32 this far out, shows how strong the high over NNE is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 That is a scary sounding for the NYC area at 135 hours on the 18Z GFS...it very well may be sleet but that is amazing that the GFS can actually see that setup this far out, usually it'll think the surface is above 32 this far out, shows how strong the high over NNE is. NWS hazards outlook shows the concern (possibly extended for our region? ) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 That is a scary sounding for the NYC area at 135 hours on the 18Z GFS...it very well may be sleet but that is amazing that the GFS can actually see that setup this far out, usually it'll think the surface is above 32 this far out, shows how strong the high over NNE is.I'm worried about the depth of the cold air. With 925mb temps above freezing that's a ZR profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015010800/gfs_mslp_pcpn_us_22.png para http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2015010800/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus.html Thursday (second wave) OTS with tonight's run http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015010800/gfs_uv250_us_32.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 The Para took a step towards the old GFS this run for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Still many model runs to go; will be curious to see where we are at by saturday. ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Well the Euro did not look like the rest of the 0z guidance. Storm signal definitely still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 I must be looking at wrong model run as precip looks very lite in this time period. Where is the storm. checked the 6 z gfs and still don't see this storm. Where is the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 checked the 6 z gfs and still don't see this storm. Where is the storm It shows that major thaw that's now well advertised but it's unclear how long it lasts. I'm guessing 5-7 days. Bring on the thaw because if it's not going to snow it might as well be mild instead of this frigid, uncomfortable cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Watch the PNA trend. If the models continue to show a weak or flatter PNA ridge, we will not get a storm. The good news is that the EPS looked the best they've looked yet. Mean was a perfect track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 The GFS is more or less the only model without the storm, the ensembles show it, maybe 3-4 of them at 00Z...I would not concentrate on that yet but more on Monday's event. The Euro, at least the Op tends to think Monday's event is mostly south of us, I didn't see what the ensembles have, the GFS, both of them are more north giving us snow and sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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