wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Tonight's euro shows one of the many ways the big coastal can go wrong. Too early a phase results in an inland runner. Still a good storm signal and minor adjustments could result in more wintry outcomes for us. Eps sticks with off shore track. Good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 FYI. No one broke news here over nite. The idea that we have not said that we break for about 5 days is a joke. Today is Jan 7 th and we are below normal until the 17th or 18th. Including yesterday that will mean we have a 12 day stretch of cold and potentially wintry weather. Then we break for 5 days and then you see the MJO go into 7 8 1 and a neg EPO by day 14 is already rebuilding. So the warm up is transient. No one broke news here. 2 weeks of winter. Then 5 days of recycling this stuff and then you are gona go right back. Why is anyone concerned about 300 hr 850s with all the next 10 days could offer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 FYI. No one broke news here over nite. The idea that we have not said that we break for about 5 days is a joke. Today is Jan 7 th and we are below normal until the 17th or 18th. Including yesterday that will mean we have a 12 day stretch of cold and potentially wintry weather. Then we break for 5 days and then you see the MJO go into 7 8 1 and a neg EPO by day 14 is already rebuilding. So the warm up is transient. No one broke news here. 2 weeks of winter. Then 5 days of recycling this stuff and then you are gona go right back. Why is anyone concerned about 300 hr 850s with all the next 10 days could offer. Exactly! People wanted a real winter pattern and we have a good one for two weeks but they are looking past it and at a transcient warm up. Go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Tonight's euro shows one of the many ways the big coastal can go wrong. Too early a phase results in an inland runner. Still a good storm signal and minor adjustments could result in more wintry outcomes for us. Eps sticks with off shore track. Good news. Typical euro bias. Things look fine thru 144 until it decides to blowup the system and make a cutter out of it. I dont buy it. The fact the eps is where its at with track should be a red flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 This just goes to show how much a flip of a coin everything past the 10 day forecast can turn out. The models did a great job forecasting the late December -EPO spike. So it looked like at the beginning of December that the late month period would turn cold and potentially wintry. But the trough ended up in the west and the month finished mild in the East. You can see the Euro weekly nail the -EPO but miss the trough in the East from the 12-4 run. But the main problem continues to be that we are still not getting rid of the +AO so that EPO ridge cannot build across to Greenland like we saw last January. The colder trending pattern would be kind of a pyrrhic victory as long as the +AO remains in place. We saw this pattern a lot back in the late 80's and early 90's. https://fox12weather.files.wordpress.com/2014/12/500za_week3_bg_na.png 500.gif Sorry to get back so late , was driving . I see the POS AO. The issue you are going to have is there are MULTIPLE cold signals that it will not be able to overcome . POS PNA NEG WPO NEG EPO ( once again past the 17th ) . Cold Canada No SE ridge . MJO 7-8-1 , I think we get there . Clipper yesterday , snow squall today , 7 tonite , Clipper Fri , Over running Mon and Pot EC snowstorm on day 10 Pyrrhic Victory ? I am down for that kind of Pyrrhic Victory . All kidding aside , this is a very good pattern I hope it can produce . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Wow good pattern enjoy it one day at a time,actually when the weather is in transition sometimes you get a memorable event.arctic air really fudges with my nostrils and static electricity is really rude have a good day.see ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Despite last night euro which ..says no to NYC snow ..I'm taking this one step at time ..Am I correct by saying once the mjo into phase 7-8 snowy potential there ..time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Despite last night euro which ..says no to NYC snow ..I'm taking this one step at time ..Am I correct by saying once the mjo into phase 7-8 snowy potential there ..time will tell.Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 FRI NAM....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 The long range fans will be happy as some of the biggest improvements to the new GFS implementation next week are at days 8 and 10. The ensembles are also getting upgraded. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/wd20rt/vsdb/prhs12/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 The overrunning event is very thread the needle, if the high is too early we miss, if the high is too late its probably rain. Yeah, I would watch Friday, the Canadian has been consistent showing that threat being more south into our area while most other models have been over SNE. There will definitely be a few people who get lucky with it but probably not a widespread snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 RGEM is similiar to the Nam in regards to the clipper for friday. Another 1-3 inch snowfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 RGEM is similiar to the Nam in regards to the clipper for friday. Another 1-3 inch snowfall? I made a thread for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Whats the story on Monday and end of week on both GFS Models? Over running on both occassions? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Radar already popping as a squall line will rip through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Whats the story on Monday and end of week on both GFS Models? Over running on both occassions? Rossi The 12z GFS actually has a nasty ice storm for parts of the area late Monday night with the surface freezing line near 95 and the 850mb freezing line well into Upstate NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 That's a pretty horrific look for a good chunk of the area. The surface freezing line never makes it more than 20 miles or so NW of NYC. Temps are in the 20's with decent precip over the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Temps finally warm up by 12-15z but by then precip is shutting off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 That's a pretty horrific look for a good chunk of the area. The surface freezing line never makes it more than 20 miles or so NW of NYC. Temps are in the 20's with decent precip over the area. The Euro I hope has a colder solution. We do not want ice!!! Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 It's going to change a dozen times over between now and Monday so I'm not going to worry too much about it but verbatim that would be 0.25"+ falling with the surface in the 20's and 850's and 925's above freezing. So it's only the lowest layer of the atmosphere so you get ZR instead of IP. And a bit further North the cold air isn't as shallow so it's probably more IP up that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Another potential event Wednesday/Thursday time frame with a 50/50 low in place, a fresh cold air source and a surface low that tracks from OBX to just outside the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 CCB develops right overhead. Coastal VA/MD/DE/NJ getting destroyed hour 192. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Deepens to at least the 980's in the Gulf of Maine. Exciting times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Another potential event Wednesday/Thursday time frame with a 50/50 low in place, a fresh cold air source and a surface low that tracks from OBX to just outside the benchmark. Been opined . 2 waves 1st one is an over running event the 2nd one is the bigger one . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 GFS is really active next week. Alot of tracking coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 The 12z PGFS is completely dry for Monday/Tuesday BTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 It is scheduled to replace the old GFS next Tuesday so we won't have to keep going back and forth between the two. Yes I know, so far I can't say that I've been impressed. And from the verification scores that I've seen, the old GFS has actually done better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Here is the mid-week threat on the old GFS. The really intense precip makes it up to about Monmouth County, with moderate precip stretching about 75 miles NW of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 The longer duration stats for the new model are slightly better than the old model. But they real improvement seems to be better scores day 8-10 with the increased resolution. The ensembles are also getting upgraded so at least the ensemble means after day 7 will be better than they were before. The PGFS for next week is essentially a very strong clipper that redevelops offshore. A solution with very little support at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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