January Forecast Discussion

[EasternLI]

Euro continues the massive PV split idea on last night's 0z. Encouraging signs for prolonged cold and storminess in January and beyond.

 

Euro Ens. look to be improving too days 11-15 from previous runs, hopefully that continues. Nice ridging at the pole. Things are looking up today

[rcad1]

Today's Euro doesn't look so good anymore. Another run another solution.

[Mophstymeo]

"Today's Euro doesn't look so good anymore. Another run another solution."

 

**********

 

"Euro Ens. look to be improving too days 11-15 from previous runs, hopefully that continues. Nice ridging at the pole. Things are looking up today"

 

**************

 

 

omg:

someone help us here

The difference is the timing of the posts. Another run, another solution seems to be right.

[SnoSki14]

Euro Ens. look to be improving too days 11-15 from previous runs, hopefully that continues. Nice ridging at the pole. Things are looking up today

When will it ever be days 5 or under? The improvements have been in the day 11-15 timeframe since November and yet here we are.

It will be colder than it was but then again it's supposed to be colder based on climo. Temperatures actually look rather seasonable overall starting the 30th when you average everything out. That's better than a torch and it'll at least offer a few snow opportunities even of small.

[PB GFI]

The pattern changes Dec 28th. Nothing has changed.

It doesn't mean your getting 2 ft of snow on the 29th .

I hope people understand. Temps will b colder. Your source region will now change . And there will b multiple SWs In the pattern to track.

Nothing is 10 days away. It starts the 28th.

[The Plowsman]

"Temps will b colder.." Isn't that more or less how Jan vs Dec goes as you get farther into winter? Let's face it. We still cannot reliably predict *any* weather *anywhere* > 3 days out! Sad, but so very true. Great for passing the time tho

[WintersGrasp]

Interesting.....the GFS has the low track off the NC/VA coast and give us snow Jan 3/4, while the parallel tracks the low to around Cleveland.....so yeah, they don't agree. Storm before that on the 30th, parallel was also further north again which in that case gave us snow, while the GFS gave nothing. Merry Christmas everyone!!

[CIK62]

During days 1-5 850mb temps go from above normal to below normal,   during days 6-10 solidly below normal here but during 11-15 they return to normal with a broad trough over entire US, really below normal 850's are 1000 miles west.   At tail end of period (Jan.10) seems to be retreating  back into Canada  already.

[easternsnowman]

Anything after jan 10 no model has a clue to what happens.

[Allsnow]

Euro keeps us in the freezer next week...also storm threat next weekend

[SleetStormNJ]

Euro keeps us in the freezer next week...also storm threat next weekend

 

Yup.  Even the other models also show a potential threat/system coming from the south on the 3rd.  Have to keep an eye on it once we get to the 29th/30th system.

[EasternLI]

So this upcoming pattern looks like something out of a nina. Yet, we are looking at what should be a nino(albeit weak). I was wondering if there are any thoughts out there as to why? Lag? Something else? Perhaps a combination of factors? Forgive me if this was previously discussed, but I did not see anything on this topic as of yet

 

[Allsnow]

Euro ens are reloading the epo after new years cold...absolutely bone chilling

[SnoSki14]

Euro ens are reloading the epo after new years cold...absolutely bone chilling

I would bet a million dollars that's going to verify warmer.

[dan123]

I would bet a million dollars that's going to verify warmer.

Any reasoning as to why you think this?

[Doorman]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/

 

 

 

Guests

http://i23.photobucket.com/albums/b368/Doorman_/CS_zps1mi9tpnt.gif

                                          

[SnoSki14]

Any reasoning as to why you think this?

We're not talking about a record setting EPO like last season and we are battling against other unfavorable indices. Bluewave made an interesting point about how the record setting SSTs in the west atlantic could potentially play a role in favoring more ridging.

Jan will probably start below normal but then the signals are mixed to say for sure. At least we will have chances for snow because temperatures are decent enough unlike winters like 11/12 where it was nearly impossible.

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

We're not talking about a record setting EPO like last season and we are battling against other unfavorable indices. Bluewave made an interesting point about how the record setting SSTs in the west atlantic could potentially play a role in favoring more ridging.

Jan will probably start below normal but then the signals are mixed to say for sure. At least we will have chances for snow because temperatures are decent enough unlike winters like 11/12 where it was nearly impossible.

What was last years record setting EPO value? What unfavorable indices are we battling? What is the correlation between warm SSTs and our temperatures?

[SnoSki14]

Nice cutter on the 12z gfs op Day 8. Probably a mix to rain type deal as it stands. Before that things look to average below normal and NYE looks fairly chilly.

There's a lot of cold air around in Canada and large parts of the CONUS thanks to the -EPO. The pattern change will have occurred despite what some may think.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Nice cutter on the 12z gfs op Day 8. Probably a mix to rain type deal as it stands. Before that things look to average below normal and NYE looks fairly chilly.

There's a lot of cold air around in Canada and large parts of the CONUS thanks to the -EPO. The pattern change will have occurred despite what some may think.

Yep pattern changing alright. Cutters and avg temps. All looks the same to me here in terms of apparent weather regardless of what the epo does. I dont care that canada gets cold...does nothing for us here...anytime soon anyway. This isn't last winter and the epo is not trumping all other indices as it did last year.

[PB GFI]

Yep pattern changing alright. Cutters and avg temps. All looks the same to me here in terms of apparent weather regardless of what the epo does. I dont care that canada gets cold...does nothing for us here...anytime soon anyway. This isn't last winter and the epo is not trumping all other indices as it did last year.

Ralph the last time the epo was 3 SD below normal was November. Care to take a look at the CONUS departures from normal ?

Either you are emotions irrational or just don't know what ur looking at. We get colder than normal for 2 weeks.

What happens after that will not be know for some time.

You are entitled to your own opinion but not your own facts.

When Canada gets cold under a neg epo that's your cold source if air . It's a pulse through the lakes away.

If a system cuts that's just because the pv retrogrades and stops so the trough axis could get pulled back.

When it pulses again down the low level air comes.

It's a pattern change man. Sorry you don't see it that way.

[stlirish]

Ralph the last time the epo was 3 SD below normal was November. Care to take a look at the CONUS departures from normal ?

Either you are emotions irrational or just don't know what ur looking at. We get colder than normal for 2 weeks.

What happens after that will not be know for some time.

You are entitled to your own opinion but not your own facts.

When Canada gets cold under a neg epo that's your cold source if air . It's a pulse through the lakes away.

If a system cuts that's just because the pv retrogrades and stops so the trough axis could get pulled back.

When it pulses again down the low level air comes.

It's a pattern change man. Sorry you don't see it that way.

This. Thank you for talking in Facts.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[BxEngine]

Yep pattern changing alright. Cutters and avg temps. All looks the same to me here in terms of apparent weather regardless of what the epo does. I dont care that canada gets cold...does nothing for us here...anytime soon anyway. This isn't last winter and the epo is not trumping all other indices as it did last year.

Can we leave the "it doesnt count as a pattern change if i dont see snow in my yard" whining in the banter thread please?

[NEG NAO]

Can we leave the "it doesnt count as a pattern change if i dont see snow in my yard" whining in the banter thread please?

hasn't been snowing in anybody's yard recently - anyways I think we will have a real battle going on between the strong Arctic HP moving in from western Canada and that pesky southeast ridge and add an active southern jet wherever the battle zone ends up in the east near and after the 1st and there will be  some very interesting weather both frozen and liquid - also increased risk for a significant freezing rain events - some serious over running events - question is exactly where it sets up ???...........

[BxEngine]

hasn't been snowing in anybody's yard recently - anyways I think we will have a real battle going on between the strong Arctic HP moving in from western Canada and that pesky southeast ridge and add an active southern jet wherever the battle zone ends up in the east near and after the 1st and there will be some very interesting weather both frozen and liquid - also increased risk for a significant freezing rain events - some serious over running events - question is exactly where it sets up ???...........

Yeah if that pattern comes to fruition as shown, someone (obv the far interior has the best chance) might be dealing with some ugly storms.

[SnoSki14]

We are going to get a few snow events in January with that EPO but all should be minor to moderate. Nothing to support a KU storm.

[Brian5671]

Hideous 12z Euro run....cutters and a big SE ridge.

[NEG NAO]

We are going to get a few snow events in January with that EPO but all should be minor to moderate. Nothing to support a KU storm.

I think a KU is always possible and impossible to predict this far in advance - if all the players needed for a KU are on the field at the same time odds increase drastically - all in the timing and locations of these players..........

[IsentropicLift]

The Euro is going with a cutter right after New Years but we're going to need some northern stream phasing to get an organized system, otherwise it's probably a wash, rinse, repeat of this last storm. Nothing to stop the quick flow or the PV from dropping down and shearing out the vorticy.

 

If we could somehow get the PV to split, that would certainly increase the chances of a more organized system.

[mob1]

Hideous 12z Euro run....cutters and a big SE ridge.

One cutter, and it's like 200 hours out. It's the same storm the PARA GFS moved like 1000 miles SE on one run (not that unusual at that timeframe) Let's go easy on the negativity here, it's not an ideal pattern but it could be worse.