SnoSki14 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Cold night statewide current temps in the teens for most of NJ with some single digits in extreme NW NJ. Already at 16F with forecast low 15F. http://www.njweather.org/maps/nj-statewide-air-temperatures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Yeah, the GEFS didn't see the trough digging into the East with the Arctic outbreak when those charts were made but nailed the -EPO. The ensembles are notorious for seeing parts of the 8-14 day forecast and missing others. But that's what makes long range forecasting such a big challenge. 12-27 forecast A.png Verification B.png It did seem like there was more spread along the east coast than the Alaska region, but not sure how meaningful the difference was. I could only find mslp but I'm guessing the idea is the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Your call of there was no pattern change is coming means that you are missing things that you should easily see . Why would the euro ensembles at 500 not produce an east coast storm day 10 or 11 . Why would that POS PNA not lead to pressure falls on the east coast with a SE trough cutting underneath it during that time allowing for a SW to come N . What fast flow ? There's no PAC jet crashing into the west coast. You are using terms that no longer exist in this pattern. If it doesn't snow the only thing you said that makes sense is it could get caught in the MA because if the confluence due to pressing highs . But not because the heights are being knocked down on the west coast and flattening the flow. These are coming out of the Gulf and having to interact w low level cold air. There is support for over running already. The Canadian and the GFS see it. Keep in mind not every OP run from here on in is going to see some monster cut off. But if it's going to happen that's the 500 mb set up you would want to see. Yeah, one of the last things I would associate this pattern with is a fast flow. It's a pretty slow flow, actually. Doesn't mean that a shortwave won't get beaten down by confluence and ultimately suppressed, but there is no fast flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015010700/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus.html GFS 0Z snapshot Para http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2015010700/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_26.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Tommy the cut off we are talking about is at day 10. Not sure where 156 fits here. There over running on the euro and canadian are 166 to 193 but that's not a fight anyone cares to have. Those are hit or misses. The cut of if it happens is at 240. Thats the one that can cause. damage. If it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 PGFS has light snow inland but rain for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Tommy the cut off we are talking about is at day 10. Not sure where 156 fits here. There over running on the euro and canadian are 166 to 193 but that's not a fight anyone cares to have. Those are hit or misses. The cut of if it happens is at 240. Thats the one that can cause. damage. If it happens. PB my money is on this horse http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850std_f240_us.html http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/prec_f240_us.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 OK my man at least we are both cold. That's progress Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 00z GFS is a full out torch in the LR... fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 00z GFS is a full out torch in the LR... fwiw No wonder no one has been talking about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Your call of there was no pattern change is coming means that you are missing things that you should easily see . Why would the euro ensembles at 500 not produce an east coast storm day 10 or 11 . Why would that POS PNA not lead to pressure falls on the east coast with a SE trough cutting underneath it during that time allowing for a SW to come N . What fast flow ? There's no PAC jet crashing into the west coast. You are using terms that no longer exist in this pattern. If it doesn't snow the only thing you said that makes sense is it could get caught in the MA because if the confluence due to pressing highs . But not because the heights are being knocked down on the west coast and flattening the flow. These are coming out of the Gulf and having to interact w low level cold air. There is support for over running already. The Canadian and the GFS see it. Keep in mind not every OP run from here on in is going to see some monster cut off. But if it's going to happen that's the 500 mb set up you would want to see. Respectfully disagree. While the flow off the PAC might not be screaming right now, the fast flow under the PV in SE Canada is going to shred things apart and not allow the GOM to open up for business...at least not in terms of apparent weather for you or I. This is what I was referring to. I'm still liking the idea of a MA or even a Southeast special for next week. Plenty of time for nature to adjust things to become more favorable for us folks farther North, but I'm just giving my opinion on how I think guidance might be hinting that this will play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 GGEM has 2 noteworthly systems next 10 days, first is a 997mb low off the east coast, close to something big at Hr 165 Then this a few days later... Hugs the coast and ends up as a 985mb Low in the Gulf of Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 +20C 2m temp anomalies? Wouldn't that be close to 70F? I guess that's why it's 300+ hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 CONTROL run? Only 1 person looks at the euro control l run and that is JB... and his fans The 12z EPS should have everyone's attention. Nice signal for overrunning and the ampled trough singal at d10, as IL said above. The Control run is a MECS. Euro has caved to the GFS on the PNA spike, and now the MJO. Let's hope the GFS caves to the Euro on this period of storminess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 MJO PLOTS have been showing this for 2 weeks +20C 2m temp anomalies? Wouldn't that be close to 70F? I guess that's why it's 300+ hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 +20C 2m temp anomalies? Wouldn't that be close to 70F? I guess that's why it's 300+ hr. Pazzo, 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 yes yes we all know its stay cold to JAN 16 after that its collapses even the wretched GFS ens moves the trough off the coast the Ridge over the Rockies move into the Plains and everyone tuns mild JAN 17/18 - jan 23/24 PB my money is on this horse http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850std_f240_us.html http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/prec_f240_us.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Pazzo, 50s. Uh, that's at 1200 UTC, which is 7am. 50s to near 60 at 7am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 yes yes we all know its stay cold to JAN 16 after that its collapses even the wretched GFS ens moves the trough off the coast the Ridge over the Rockies move into the Plains and everyone tuns mild JAN 17/18 - jan 23/24 January thaws are rarely denied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 The Canadian model has been on fire the last 2 events, everyone better hope it is still on fire because it has something here with the arctic front and brings a big winter storm to the MA and SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 The Canadian model has been on fire the last 2 events, everyone better hope it is still on fire because it has something here with the arctic front and brings a big winter storm to the MA and SE. For early next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 yes yes we all know its stay cold to JAN 16 after that its collapses even the wretched GFS ens moves the trough off the coast the Ridge over the Rockies move into the Plains and everyone tuns mild JAN 17/18 - jan 23/24 I think that is going to be fairly transient. I don't forsee a 09-10 or 10-11 pattern developing anytime soon but I definitely think Feb/Mar will be generally colder and snowier than normal in the East with a +PNA generally dominating as well as the AO/NAO eventually going negative although it may take til 2/10-2/15 til it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 For early next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 CMC is alot of ice for JAN 12-13 in middle atlantic The Canadian model has been on fire the last 2 events, everyone better hope it is still on fire because it has something here with the arctic front and brings a big winter storm to the MA and SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Hopefully, that trends in our direction. I want a snow day next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Hopefully, that trends in our direction. I want a snow day next week. The Canadian may be right, the pattern in the southern branch does not really scream of one where a S/W should get trapped over Texas like the GFS/Euro want to show, its a progressive pattern down there, the only concern I'd have is it ends up mostly an MA event. The biggest red flag right now to me is the NavGEM agrees almost perfectly with the GFS and Euro, that does not usually end well beyond Day 5 for those 2 models as I've said before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 You COULD BE right I think that is going to be fairly transient. I don't forsee a 09-10 or 10-11 pattern developing anytime soon but I definitely think Feb/Mar will be generally colder and snowier than normal in the East with a +PNA generally dominating as well as the AO/NAO eventually going negative although it may take til 2/10-2/15 til it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Feb '10 incoming, batten down the hatches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 I think that is going to be fairly transient. I don't forsee a 09-10 or 10-11 pattern developing anytime soon but I definitely think Feb/Mar will be generally colder and snowier than normal in the East with a +PNA generally dominating as well as the AO/NAO eventually going negative although it may take til 2/10-2/15 til it happens. I agree. Even the GEFS and EPS already show heights going back up again in the west right after MLK weekend. The relaxation (if there is one...it keeps getting pushed back) may only last 3-4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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