wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 The 12z EPS should have everyone's attention. Nice signal for overrunning and the ampled trough singal at d10, as IL said above. The Control run is a MECS. Euro has caved to the GFS on the PNA spike, and now the MJO. Let's hope the GFS caves to the Euro on this period of storminess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Yeah, it's really something how much the Euro ensemble guidance completely caved to the GFS guidance with the colder weather lingering through next week, and particularly the PNA spike. People forecasting this month to finish above normal in temperatures are in trouble, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 I think any significant winter weather is confined to the MA or SE next week, the Euro is not giving the high pressure centers coming from Canada enough credit and it has had a tendency to do that this winter beyond Day 4 or 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 As Geof said, the Euro guidance has also been behind the 8 ball with the MJO in this new regime as well. That could be one of the reasons why it's been playing catchup to the GFS guidance with the PNA spike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 I think any significant winter weather is confined to the MA or SE next week, the Euro is not giving the high pressure centers coming from Canada enough credit and it has had a tendency to do that this winter beyond Day 4 or 5. Agree that this is definitely possible with respect to the coastal. The overrunning is ours for the taking IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 I haven't been this optimistic about a potential event all season. The initial overrunning and coastal combo is very exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Wind chill advisory issued for tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Check out the Euro ensemble mean 500mb pattern from January 2nd at 288 hours, and then look at today's valid for 192 hours (both are valid for 12z, Wednesday, January 14th). It's night-and-day with the ridging out west. It's a big reason why the initial overrunning is a threat -- the PNA ridging helps to try and pull that north as well as keep some troughiness in the east and cold air around...and then it can hopefully help with the follow-up coastal as well. Though the follow-up coastal could easily get suppressed. It's not necessarily a "woof" pattern, as poor timing with some features could easily lead the waves to miss, but the general theme of departing Arctic air but still kinda hanging around, as well as increased ridging out west and high-ish heights across the US is a good pattern for overrunning snows and potentially a cutoff. Edit: It would even be better to compare the 12z Euro Ensemble mean run from New Year's day at 312 hours to today's at 192 hours. The 1/1 GEFS had the PNA spike, btw, and pretty much never budged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Both the 0z euro and 6z GFS ensembles this morning were just flat out cold. Not cool. Cold. Not one. But both. Day 12 thru 14 on the euro ensembles has a trough under higher heights with the 0 line at 850 running through the MA There could be a cut off over the MA With that look. For the record since new years the euro ensembles have rallied to the colder GFS look and is cold day 2 thru 14. Will just re post this . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Let's play a game. Which is the 12z Euro Ensemble run from New Year's Day, valid for January 14th, and which is today's Euro ensemble run, valid for January 14th? These are crops of the WSI Model Lab products. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 It's clear as day that the gefs are schooling the eps d11-16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Let's play a game. Which is the 12z Euro Ensemble run from New Year's Day, valid for January 14th, and which is today's Euro ensemble run, valid for January 14th? These are crops of the WSI Model Lab products. Yea it's not even close. I'm still having a hard time believing anything past day(s) 3-5. I definitely like the look and there's no denying the Euro has been playing catch up to the gfs in this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Let's play a game. Which is the 12z Euro Ensemble run from New Year's Day, valid for January 14th, and which is today's Euro ensemble run, valid for January 14th? loleuro1_1.png loleuro2_2.png These are crops of the WSI Model Lab products. I'm not surprised. Euro Ens mean has been lowering heights over West Coast since we had the +PDO. I've seen some radical shifts towards the GEFS in 9-10 day range too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 WPC says how dry we are no snowstorms in site - PERIOD ! http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-7.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Seems a bit nitpicky, but that we agree overall. That's good, because I am saying how it is. Snoski is just saying it won't happen just because. That crap shouldn't be in this thread. Actually you're right it is more of an overrunning solution instead of a coastal my apologies. I think Snowgoose mentioned something about PD II how the moisture essentially slammed into the massive high pressure over us. How would this scenario compare to that if only a little bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Seems like overunning next week will be quite the challenge based on the relative fast flow across much of the lower 48. I definitely dont see a coastal in this pattern, and the overrunning solutions seem a little aggressive imo. I would venture to guess if there is a threat next week that it would be confined mainly to the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Seems like overunning next week will be quite the challenge based on the relative fast flow across much of the lower 48. I definitely dont see a coastal in this pattern, and the overrunning solutions seem a little aggressive imo. I would venture to guess if there is a threat next week that it would be confined mainly to the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast.Did you look at h5 on the Euro or its enensembles? The thermal gradient adds fuel to the overrunning. Its actually plausible. But again I don't trust anything this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Did you look at h5 on the Euro or its enensembles?Yes. Needs support tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Yes. Needs support tho. The ggem has a similar idea (even though I'm not a fan of the ggem). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 The ggem has a similar idea (even though I'm not a fan of the ggem).Didnt see that. Maybe thats the support we need. 0z will be telling! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Seems like overunning next week will be quite the challenge based on the relative fast flow across much of the lower 48. I definitely dont see a coastal in this pattern, and the overrunning solutions seem a little aggressive imo. I would venture to guess if there is a threat next week that it would be confined mainly to the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast. Your call of there was no pattern change is coming means that you are missing things that you should easily see . Why would the euro ensembles at 500 not produce an east coast storm day 10 or 11 . Why would that POS PNA not lead to pressure falls on the east coast with a SE trough cutting underneath it during that time allowing for a SW to come N . What fast flow ? There's no PAC jet crashing into the west coast. You are using terms that no longer exist in this pattern. If it doesn't snow the only thing you said that makes sense is it could get caught in the MA because if the confluence due to pressing highs . But not because the heights are being knocked down on the west coast and flattening the flow. These are coming out of the Gulf and having to interact w low level cold air. There is support for over running already. The Canadian and the GFS see it. Keep in mind not every OP run from here on in is going to see some monster cut off. But if it's going to happen that's the 500 mb set up you would want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 words get in the way.... but some people in here write wonderful lyrics to very poor songs -imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 The GEFS also support the general overrunning idea, along with the idea of a trough in the east around d10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 ens-jan.gif words get in the way.... but some people in here write wonderful lyrics to very poor songs -imho Do they use the only gfs OP for the temp/precip 8-14 day image?All other guidance including the gfs' own ensembles disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Do they use the only gfs OP for the temp/precip 8-14 day image? All other guidance including the gfs' own ensembles disagree The end of the 18z GEFS supports the moderation idea, but looks like it would be transient. Also some blocks in the GEFS, but they too are transient. We need to get the MJO into phase 7 or 8 to have a legit chance of locking in some blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Do they use the only gfs OP for the temp/precip 8-14 day image? All other guidance including the gfs' own ensembles disagree This image someone posted after Christmas.... only one of those days were significantly above normal and the last 4 days of this outlook...well \ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 The end of the 18z GEFS supports the moderation idea, but looks like it would be transient. Also some blocks in the GEFS, but they too are transient. We need to get the MJO into phase 7 or 8 to have a legit chance of locking in some blocking. Yea I saw the moderation but the NOAA 8-14 day outlook looked wrong to me with no below normal temps anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Do they use the only gfs OP for the temp/precip 8-14 day image? All other guidance including the gfs' own ensembles disagree. Read their take here.... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO A PREDICTED LOW-AMPLITUDE FLOW BY THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS AND RELATIVELY POOR AGREEMENT AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC GFS SOLUTIONS. FORECASTER: SCOTT HANDEL lots of Hugification today Blizzards- MECS - PDII ------- all from one op run??? my goodness http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850std1_f144_ussm.gif Jan 21st ESRL prog http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850std1_f360_ussm.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Enough with the hyperbole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 This image someone posted after Christmas.... only one of those days were significantly above normal and the last 4 days of this outlook...well \ As I noted then, I don't think warm anomalies all along the East Coast is a slam dunk proposition for the period in question, especially during a time when the guidance has had less than normal run-to-run continuity in the medium- and extended-range. The Southeastern U.S. has the best chance of being warm. The GFS ensembles, in particular, suggested that a colder outcome was possible farther up the Eastern Seaboard. CPC is as good as one gets. Nevertheless, sometimes the uncertainty can be sufficient that such forecasts don't verify. It will be interesting to see the final outcome along the East Coast (the area that had the greatest uncertainty) once the data is in. Certainly, Boston, New York, and Philadelphia have sliced deeply into the warm anomalies that had accumulated in the 1/3-5 timeframe and the 1/7-9 period will very likely be much below normal, on average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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