Eduardo Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 A lot of work went into that post to have it taken down . Enjoy . Repost without the paid maps! Would love to read it Paul! Always value your input and analysis! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 GFS at 132 hours looks like something nice is brewing up.....probably a storm day 7-8. It's really not a terrible pattern that we're in. We're left feeling frustrated by the lack of snow so far, but looking forward it simply does not look bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 LOL the GFS has an afternoon temp of 0 on the 17th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 LOL the GFS has an afternoon temp of 0 on the 17th Temperature scale issues on this run. Seems to have gotten Celsius and Fahrenheit mixed up. Nonetheless.....it is a very cold and active run. To be believed ? Maybe not exactly, but surely better than seeing it warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Temperature scale issues on this run. Seems to have gotten Celsius and Fahrenheit mixed up. Nonetheless.....it is a very cold and active run. To be believed ? Maybe not exactly, but surely better than seeing it warm Of course 2 days later its 50 and raining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 New euro weeklies much colder in week 4. There goes the warmup!! Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 LOL the GFS has an afternoon temp of 0 on the 17th I commented on this earlier today and wondered how a sub-zero 2mT could be derived from such non-supportive UL numbers. Well they are more realistic at the UL this run-----this does not mean sub-zero will happen. UL now at least comparable to those on the 8th where a single digit low is predicted. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KNYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Oh my.... today's 12z Euro, Euro ensembles and weeklies were just flat-out horrendous per the New England sub-forum. I'm surprised this was not emphasized in this forum. There is so much sugarcoating in this thread. Bluewave has been stellar with his outlooks from early December; not sure why everyone is trying to steal his thunder so much. Anyway, a major, and I mean a major prolonged thaw starting on MLK weekend. Raging Pacific jet, very flat look in the West... just, simply, a firehose pattern ala 1997-98. DT posted images about this in the banter thread. And guess what? Even if the AO goes negative, all that cold will spill over the other side of the globe because the cold will have to take the path of least resistance, per a New England met. The only real threat during the next 10-15 days will be between the 13-14th; and that looks to be mainly rain, as most of the cold would have retreated back into Canada. GEFS is on its own now, so no brainer here on the eventual outcome now. I will say this now: this January has a 92% chance of being worse than January 2012. No. Just no. This is not only idiotic, it's flat out wrong. Stop rip and reading from AMWXNE, learn to read the models, and develop your own opinions, it'll do you good. EURO weeklies looked good in week 4 after a brief warmup week 3 with the cold returning and the Scandinavian block forming(I wouldn't put much stock in them though, they've been horrendous all winter in their LR), ensembles have been trending towards the GEFS idea of a stronger MJO pulse into phase 7 which is a colder composite for our area, the op EURO is below normal the entire run with a couple of storm chances in there(With ens support), and your AO comment makes absolutely no sense. Furthermore, the EURO products have been playing catchup to the GEFS guidance which has been much better in this pattern that we are now in, and they have been consistently too warm in their long range relative to eventual forecast and likely verification. The pattern isn't perfect, don't get me wrong, but this is way over the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Gfs is cold. It shows below 0 on the 17-18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Gfs is cold. It shows below 0 on the 17-18. I have mentioned that, but how do you get to 0deg. with this: So far from the OP. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/z500anom_f312_us.html The 850's are in the normal range, near this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 6z gfs really close to a significant snow storm Sunday/Monday....as is gives a little snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Euro was 2-3" for most next week. The EPS looks increasingly better. Good low cluster off the delmarva on d9 now deepening. The Control run is a high end SECS. Haven't seen many of those from the Control run this season. CMC also has the system, but a tad too warm for most. Loads of moisture. Para had something around d10 as well. GFS is progressive with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 The Euro weeklies have done a great job timing the -EPO pulses in the Pacific and the next one comes around week 4. It looks like the general theme is a moderation in temperatures here weeks 2 and 3 from the Arctic cold this week with the potential for more Arctic to arrive late January or early February. But the one disappointment is that there continues to be more of a +AO throughout as all the best blocking continues to focus on the Pacific side instead of the Atlantic. Lets hope that we can at least get a brief -AO sometime before this winter is over. https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2015/01/05/ecmwf-weekly-maps-19/ Same argument as always but do we really need a -ao to produce a snowstorm? Or is this info posted somewhere else? Just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 The Euro weeklies have done a great job timing the -EPO pulses in the Pacific and the next one comes around week 4. It looks like the general theme is a moderation in temperatures here weeks 2 and 3 from the Arctic cold this week with the potential for more Arctic to arrive late January or early February. But the one disappointment is that there continues to be more of a +AO throughout as all the best blocking continues to focus on the Pacific side instead of the Atlantic. Lets hope that we can at least get a brief -AO sometime before this winter is over. https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2015/01/05/ecmwf-weekly-maps-19/ Thoughts on the euro now moving the MJO into phase 7 and impacts that may have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Why was my post regarding the potential for early next week deleted? This has the potential to be the most significant storm since Thanksgiving, and it's only 138hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Why was my post regarding the potential for early next week deleted? This has the potential to be the most significant storm since Thanksgiving, and it's only 138hrs out. 12z ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Same argument as always but do we really need a -ao to produce a snowstorm? Or is this info posted somewhere else? Just curious. Some statistics for NYC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Some statistics for NYC: Thanks for the great stats as always, Don! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 The 12z Euro is a bit of a mess aloft but it has a really nice setup overall for multiple threats early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 The 12z Euro is a bit of a mess aloft but it has a really nice setup overall for multiple threats early next week.Stole my thunderSetup looks good plenty of cold air to be tapped as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Jan 12-14 guidance slide show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 I don't believe we'll see anything from this as there's nothing that would support any coastal like solution. Currently given the pattern the snow will come from clippers and SWFE or maybe some overunners considering the recent strong highs coming south and resultant cold air masses. We need a large PNA ridge to really get a nice coastal storm if the NAO doesn't cooperate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 I don't believe we'll see anything from this as there's nothing that would support any coastal like solution. Currently given the pattern the snow will come from clippers and SWFE or maybe some overunners considering the recent strong highs coming south and resultant cold air masses. We need a large PNA ridge to really get a nice coastal storm if the NAO doesn't cooperate. Its not really a coastal. Its more of an overrunning situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Some statistics for NYC: Some analogs like 1951-52 and 1982-83 had a positive ao on average for December and January and negative for February and March... year...Dec...Jan...Feb...Mar AO...1952 1.927 0.368 -1.747 -1.859 1983 0.967 1.359 -1.806 -0.567 if the AO goes negative in February and March chances of a good ending for the winter rises... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 I don't believe we'll see anything from this as there's nothing that would support any coastal like solution. Currently given the pattern the snow will come from clippers and SWFE or maybe some overunners considering the recent strong highs coming south and resultant cold air masses. We need a large PNA ridge to really get a nice coastal storm if the NAO doesn't cooperate. I'd agree for something big that bombs out-need to buckle the flow and get it to slow down. This looks more over-running like, which we could do well from depending on the exact evolution-something to watch at least! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Its not really a coastal. Its more of an overrunning situation. I was going to say the same thing, it's overrunning that transfers to the coast which can be a very exciting situation, especially for inland areas that normally get screwed by miller A's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 The 12z Euro is a bit of a mess aloft but it has a really nice setup overall for multiple threats early next week. I disagree that it is a mess aloft. It is a classic overrunning situation, generated by a PNA spike, with us just north of the baroclinic zone, cashing in. Toward the end of the run, a series of well timed vorts buckle the trough enough to give us a probable blizzard after the 240 hour mark. Everything about the run made sense both within the params of the individual run and the larger pattern. Verbatim, the best Euro run of the season and would result in MECS snow depth across the entire area. It is supported by last night's Euro Ens as well. Clearly, the coastal solution will change, as it depends so much on vort spacing/timing/strength. Overall, I feel quite good about the overrunning setup to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 I disagree that it is a mess aloft. It is a classic overrunning situation, generated by a PNA spike, with us just north of the baroclinic zone, cashing in. Toward the end of the run, a series of well timed vorts buckle the trough enough to give us a probable blizzard after the 240 hour mark. Everything about the run made sense both within the params of the individual run and the larger pattern. Clearly, the coastal solution will change, as it depends so much on vort spacing/timing/strength. If you look at the 500mb vorticy maps there are several vorts that run out ahead of the main energy over the Central Plains, but yes I agree that it looks good for overrunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 If you look at the 500mb vorticy maps there are several vorts that run out ahead of the main energy over the Central Plains, but yes I agree that it looks good for overrunning. Seems a bit nitpicky, but that we agree overall. That's good, because I am saying how it is. Snoski is just saying it won't happen just because. That crap shouldn't be in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Seems a bit nitpicky, but that we agree overall. That's good, because I am saying how it is. Snoski is just saying it won't happen just because. That crap shouldn't be in this thread. The 12z EPS mean is very supportive of the overrunning potential early next week and the East coast trough late in the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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