doncat Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Both the 0z euro and 6z GFS ensembles this morning were just flat out cold. Not cool. Cold. Not one. But both. Day 12 thru 14 on the euro ensembles has a trough under higher heights with the 0 line at 850 running through the MA There could be a cut off over the MA With that look. For the record since new years the euro ensembles have rallied to the colder GFS look and is cold day 2 thru 14. Let's see what the ensembles look like at 12z. After dropping below freezing later tomorrow, temps may not get back above freezing for many of us for the rest of the week and into the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 1 am Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Well the weeklies haven't been that bad at times. They did pick up on the December warmth. If you understand how to treat them, this has been an ok winter for them. I also wouldn't ride the GEFS either because they could ease back on the PNA too. With the forcing west of the dateline and into the maritime continent..models probably will struggle with the EPO and PNA. Cohen called for a SSW, but I do not see it. The vortex is not going anywhere and if anything, consolidates again. So IMHO, we won't see much of a -NAO this month. Maybe I'll be wrong. We are actually seeing a sudden stratospheric warming event right now, with a wave 2-vortex split, though it will not reach 'major' classification. The warmer / perturbed stratosphere and current vortex split substantially increases the probability of the development of a -AO in a couple weeks based on what I've researched. I made a post in the main winter thread about it and improvements in tropical forcing, which should lead toward a more Nino-like Pacific regime. I think the AO turns negative by the 15th-20th and especially post the 20th. I have much less confidence in a sustained or strong -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 We are actually seeing a sudden stratospheric warming event right now, with a wave 2-vortex split, though it will not reach 'major' classification. The warmer / perturbed stratosphere and current vortex split substantially increases the probability of the development of a -AO in a couple weeks based on what I've researched. I made a post in the main winter thread about it and improvements in tropical forcing, which should lead toward a more Nino-like Pacific regime. I think the AO turns negative by the 15th-20th and especially post the 20th. I have much less confidence in a sustained or strong -NAO. Right, but the vortex comes right back, so hard for me to see a sustained -AO from that event when the vortex comes right back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I would probably lean toward toward the Euro as the GFS running bias has been too high with the heights along the West Coast and too low along the East Coast week 2. But it would be nice if they had one these week 2 error charts for the Euro. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fcst_eval/html/zwk2_bias.html zwk2b-us.gif It's hard to forecast the same bias, but the EC is definitely a bit too low with heights out west. So was the GEFS but bit as bad. This is comparing 11-15 day with 6-10 day. I think for now I would lean to EC, but careful not to run away with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 If the ensembles are right this time and the AO does go negative after day 10 then that moderation won't happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Both the 0z euro and 6z GFS ensembles this morning were just flat out cold. Not cool. Cold. Not one. But both. Day 12 thru 14 on the euro ensembles has a trough under higher heights with the 0 line at 850 running through the MA There could be a cut off over the MA With that look. For the record since new years the euro ensembles have rallied to the colder GFS look and is cold day 2 thru 14. Let's see what the ensembles look like at 12z. Um, I heard that today's 12z Euro ensembles were "ugly" in the 11-15 day per the New England forum meteorologists. In fact, it's almost like the pattern as this past December. Translation: Epic, unmitigated torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Um, I heard that today's 12z Euro ensembles were "ugly" in the 11-15 day per the New England forum meteorologists. In fact, it's almost like the pattern as this past December. Translation: Epic, unmitigated torch. Several days ago the ECMWF ensembles had a torch period for January 10-15th in the Northeast. Current ensembles are now colder than normal through the 16th. Point being, the models have been fairly good through about D7, with rapidly decreasing accuracy in the D7+ period and particularly beyond D10. I think the very end of today's ensembles (euro) at D 15 is also incorrect, and we'll begin to see that D10-15 period improve as we get closer, much like we're seeing now for January 10th-15th. When all is said and done, I think January will enter the books as a very solid looking winter month. I think the validity of the D10-15 ensembles is much greater in a stable / stagnant pattern, like we saw last winter with generally similar -EPO / +AO / +NAO configuration much of the winter. But in a changeable regime, use the D10-15 ensembles with caution in my opinion. This is largely why (IMO) the weeklies have performed terribly this winter. Since November 1st, we've cycled through 3 vastly different patterns. We saw the transition to cold by last week, and I think we see another change in a couple weeks w/ transition from a Nina-like regime to more Nino-like as the classic Aleutian / GOA troughing pattern initiates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Um, I heard that today's 12z Euro ensembles were "ugly" in the 11-15 day per the New England forum meteorologists. In fact, it's almost like the pattern as this past December. Translation: Epic, unmitigated torch. This week was also supposed to "torch". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Um, I heard that today's 12z Euro ensembles were "ugly" in the 11-15 day per the New England forum meteorologists. In fact, it's almost like the pattern as this past December. Translation: Epic, unmitigated torch. you'll note 2 things though, the warmth keeps getting pushed back and back on the Euro and the GFS ensembles has owned the Euro in the long range the last 6 weeks or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Some real weenie model solutions beginning to come out between 1/10 and 1/20. I like this period more than any other so far this season for a moderate snowfall. GFS and Euro agree on a PNA spike in the mid range and the GFS and PGFS both have the NAO and AO turning sharply negative in the LR. The 6z GFS even shows a blizzard on the 20th. On the flip side, is the Euro which continues to push back, but emphasize a major thaw toward the end of my highlighted period. Thus far, for the winter, the GFS has beaten the Euro on PV placement and strength whereas the Euro has dominated on tropical forcing and MJO plots. It is going to be an interesting second half of met winter, but we are definitely not out of it just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Um, I heard that today's 12z Euro ensembles were "ugly" in the 11-15 day per the New England forum meteorologists. In fact, it's almost like the pattern as this past December. Translation: Epic, unmitigated torch. Just saw this Day 10 11 12 13 Zero torch . Watch day 12 ish with a trough under that ridge , there may be a cutoff in the MA . Day 14- 15 moderate , but that`s 2 weeks away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Just saw this Day 10 11 12 13 Zero torch . Watch day 12 ish with trough under that ridge , there may be a cutoff in the MA . Day 14- 15 moderate , but that`s 2 weeks away And once it happens, much later than the Euro advertised, and much less torched than the Euro advertised, we will hear from some people how dead on it was again. The colored glasses are in this season it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 The GFS ensembles have been consistently too cold in the East past 5 days out this winter. Even the Euro weeklies missed the extent of the warmth later in December when everyone was expecting back-loaded cold and we got warmth. The Euro weeklies also rushed the cold with the current EPO spike as it is happening this week instead of late December. So it's possible that the next -EPO pulse slated for later January may result in the cold really arriving first week of February. However, for January, the longer term GFS ensembles have shown superior skill compared to the D 11-15 ECMWF ensembles, the latter of which have continued to trend more amplified w/ the PNA spike and cooler near the East Coast for the Jan 10th-15th period. Recall several days ago, the ECMWF ensembles indicated a blowtorch for Jan 10th-15th w/ a ridge in the East, similar to what it depicts for its new D11-15 period. The GFS ensembles were more bullish on the PNA spike, and that will turn out more correct than not. So while the Euro might have been superior in December, it's been apparent that the Pacific changes in this current pattern have been handled better by the GFS based guidance. We'll see if the ECMWF ensembles begin to trend away from its torch again in the D11-15. Interesting battle for sure. I think it stems partially from differences in tropical forcing progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 However, for January, the longer term GFS ensembles have shown superior skill compared to the D 11-15 ECMWF ensembles, the latter of which have continued to trend more amplified w/ the PNA spike and cooler near the East Coast for the Jan 10th-15th period. Recall several days ago, the ECMWF ensembles indicated a blowtorch for Jan 10th-15th w/ a ridge in the East, similar to what it depicts for its new D11-15 period. The GFS ensembles were more bullish on the PNA spike, and that will turn out more correct than not. So while the Euro might have been superior in December, it's been apparent that the Pacific changes in this current pattern have been handled better by the GFS based guidance. We'll see if the ECMWF ensembles begin to trend away from its torch again in the D11-15. Interesting battle for sure. I think it stems partially from differences in tropical forcing progression. This. Absolutely right Tom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Just reviewed the 12z gfs model. No projected significant snow weather events for the next 10 days. ( strong odds of occuring) Possible rain event around day 13 or 14. (medium odds of occuring) This leave us a very small window for snow around the 22nd to 30th. I may hendge my bets that central park gets less than 3 inches of snow for the month at this point. If this occurs, we may need to start talking about chasing records for least snowfall in a season. Best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Just reviewed the 12z gfs model. No projected significant snow weather events for the next 10 days. ( strong odds of occuring) Possible rain event around day 13 or 14. (medium odds of occuring) This leave us a very small window for snow around the 22nd to 30th. I may hendge my bets that central park gets less than 3 inches of snow for the month at this point. If this occurs, we may need to start talking about chasing records for least snowfall in a season. Best This is banter but the gfs has been showing something around the 19th for a few runs now which could end up snow at the coast, doubt its rain for you unless it cuts. Seems unlikely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 This is banter but the gfs has been showing something around the 19th for a few runs now which could end up snow at the coast, doubt its rain for you unless it cuts. Seems unlikely This is not banter. this is a January discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 This is not banter. this is a January discussion. The GFS almost never has snow events more than 7 days out. It either has suppression or cutters. Few of last years events showed up on the gfs until right before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 The GFS almost never has snow events more than 7 days out. It either has suppression or cutters. Few of last years events showed up on the gfs until right before. The GFS has trended towards the Euro for sure the last few runs not doing much with that event around a week out, the system gets stuck in Texas and does not eject til its too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 The Friday event looks workable . We just need little more digging and it actually has a chance to be better than tomorrow`s light event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 The GFS has trended towards the Euro for sure the last few runs not doing much with that event around a week out, the system gets stuck in Texas and does not eject til its too late. PARA ejects it and almost makes a decent storm out of it with cold air in place fwiw....almost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Can anyone explain how a -40C 500mb , -27C 850mb, 5110m gph@500mb and THK of 4940m works out to 8deg @ 2m-----but -22C -21C 5230m 5170m is a lower -3deg @2m. ? This is from the current IPS for the 8th. and then the 16th. Winds are NW in both cases. (we may have to pay for this info soon) http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KNYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Just reviewed the 12z gfs model. No projected significant snow weather events for the next 10 days. ( strong odds of occuring) Possible rain event around day 13 or 14. (medium odds of occuring) This leave us a very small window for snow around the 22nd to 30th. I may hendge my bets that central park gets less than 3 inches of snow for the month at this point. If this occurs, we may need to start talking about chasing records for least snowfall in a season. Best Banter. And the 6z GFS was epic btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Just reviewed the 12z gfs model. No projected significant snow weather events for the next 10 days. ( strong odds of occuring) Possible rain event around day 13 or 14. (medium odds of occuring) This leave us a very small window for snow around the 22nd to 30th. I may hendge my bets that central park gets less than 3 inches of snow for the month at this point. If this occurs, we may need to start talking about chasing records for least snowfall in a season. Best Least seasonal snowfall is 2.8" in '72-'73, your numbers would already have us at 4" with up to 8 weeks to go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Day 10 Euro . I have been saying be careful when you see a look at 500 mb with higher heights to the N with a trough underneath . It sometimes breeds cutoffs . You can see even though there are higher heights a Pos PNA keeps you cold as it forces cold air ( HP) into the pattern . Here is the 15th . Day 10 surface maps are to be taken lightly , but sometimes when you see that look at 500 , you have to look out underneath . After that last trough lifts through around the 18th , maybe we moderate , the question how long . Day 10 looks much like 09-10 looked for a large part of the winter...fairly stale cold air but a setup where a storm can produce snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I don't want to steal Weathergun's thunder, but encouraging MJO plots out today have the Euro now moving the MJO into the much more favorable phase 7 in the LR. This could really be a big positive development in our hopes to have a backloaded Winter. Today's GEFS is below normal through the entire run and the Euro Op was quite cool with some snow chances. Pattern is looking miles better now than it was 2 weeks ago and the GEFS, IMO, has been leading the charge with the notable exception of the MJO, for which there is now some indication that the Euro might be caving on that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I don't want to steal Weathergun's thunder, but encouraging MJO plots out today have the Euro now moving the MJO into the much more favorable phase 7 in the LR. This could really be a big positive development in our hopes to have a backloaded Winter. Winter began sixteen days ago. If we don't get a significant storm before the middle-end of January it will still be during the first half. The first half of December is not a Winter month, at least not around here. Just like the second half of March isn't either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 A lot of work went into that post to have it taken down . Enjoy . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 A lot of work went into that post to have it taken down . Enjoy . It was taken down because you posted paid Euro maps, and you should know better than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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