forkyfork Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 i think the SST's are a function of the pattern and not the other way around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 CPC's new interactive tool http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/interactive/index.php Screen Shot id.jpg cpc.gif Spag http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/briefs/hgtP1.html Fantastic tool. Many thanks for sharing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 i think the SST's are a function of the pattern and not the other way around I'm pretty sure in 2000-2001 we had that insane warm pool like that off the E Coast and we had no problems getting a -AO and NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I think normal is going to be difficult given the SST pattern with near record warmth off the East Coast and the cold pool NE favoring a mostly +AO pattern. This regime favors a strong SE Ridge/WAR with amplified storms cutting right through the end of January. Trying to get back to normal with below normal December and January snowfall is a tough task. SST.gif For nyc yes but north and west I think normal or even above is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I think normal is going to be difficult given the SST pattern with near record warmth off the East Coast and the cold pool NE favoring a mostly +AO pattern. This regime favors a strong SE Ridge/WAR with amplified storms cutting right through the end of January. Trying to get back to normal with below normal December and January snowfall is a tough task. SST.gif If January is below normal, then yes I'd agree that its about time to give up on normal. As pointed out though, we're not sure it will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Clipper is just snow showers for the area. Maybe a dusting? That would be nice. So far other 12Z models dig it more and are south of the GFS...the pattern to me supports a track to our south, I think the GFS is too far north, at least the Op, I have not seen individual ensembles yet...its too early to know but we could get a couple of inches from this if it goes over SNJ where I think it will...its not going to pull a dig and redevelop job but it may get some juice from the NATL. I'd say 48 more hours til we get a better idea. ***12Z GFS ensembles unfortunately mostly north...some are quite potent with it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 If January is below normal, then yes I'd agree that its about time to give up on normal. As pointed out though, we're not sure it will happen. Made a list where even crap through January has turned out decent. In separate thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Hey guys the Se Ridge could be your friend not your enemy i have seen arctic nose bleeding ,static shocking airmasses crush all systems to the south. Then you all will be praying for alberta clippers and manitoba maulers good luck with that just my obs. see ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Cold shot next Thursday looks to come from a rather decent source. Should be in and out rather quickly compared to our cold last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I went into this winter with a bunch of analogs and all had more snowfall than the year before...after last years 57" I figured this year won't be as much...it's possible NYC could end up with a quarter to half of that...1951-52 was the analog with the least amount of snowfall with 19.7"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I went into this winter with a bunch of analogs and all had more snowfall than the year before...after last years 57" I figured this year won't be as much...it's possible NYC could end up with a quarter to half of that...1951-52 was the analog with the least amount of snowfall with 19.7"... http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/monthseasonsnowfall.html Reference for all the past years.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Cold shot next Thursday looks to come from a rather decent source. Should be in and out rather quickly compared to our cold last year. Umm, what is this map. That is awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Umm, what is this map. That is awesome. Its the NOAA HYSPLIT backward trajectory based on the 12z GFS. Basically its showing the path that a parcel of air is taking at 500m, and this particular trajectory is sourced from the Arctic Circle. You can see it from another perspective here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I think 0.5 to a inch looks good.for the clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I think 0.5 to a inch looks good.for the clipper Maybe 1.5" if we get good ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Clipper is further south on the gfs tonight so far out to hr 79. I noticed these tend to drift south on the models as it grows closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Gfs is 2-4 for the clipper! Tracks south of us and throws back a bit of moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Gfs is 2-4 for the clipper! Tracks south of us and throws back a bit of moistureVery nice ! A few inches of snow followed by bitter cold in early January.....can't ask for more than that this winter. I've noticed that the parallel in general seems to be running warmer than the GFS. Do you know how each has verified so far compared to the other? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Let's see what models look like by Sunday. For clipper. I would be very happy with 2-4 inch event but ...I don't trust any model just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 para has a similar track but it gets eaten up when it goes over the mountains...still.looks to be about a inch for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Very nice ! A few inches of snow followed by bitter cold in early January.....can't ask for more than that this winter. I've noticed that the parallel in general seems to be running warmer than the GFS. Do you know how each has verified so far compared to the other? The GFS has continued to outperform the parallel GFS. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/ http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/12Z/ Given what has been a persistent performance gap, I'm really not sure why the parallel will be replacing the current GFS on 1/14. Hopefully, the change will be delayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 The GFS has continued to outperform the parallel GFS. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/ http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/12Z/ Given what has been a persistent performance gap, I'm really not sure why the parallel will be replacing the current GFS on 1/14. Hopefully, the change will be delayed. Thanks Don.....It confirms what I was thinking, just by how the last few storms played out. There's clearly something wrong with it.....And to replace a model that already is not exactly the best model, with one that has performed even worse just seems backwards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Let's see what models look like by Sunday. For clipper. I would be very happy with 2-4 inch event but ...I don't trust any model just yet. If the models weaken the energy and track it north of us, I don't see us having a shot at more than some snow showers. We usually need these to move south of us and be potent enough aloft to survive being shredded by the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Wednesday night looks downright frigid per GFS. Widespread single digits with wind chills -10 to -20. Hopefully a couple inches of fresh snow can help cool us down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Thanks Don.....It confirms what I was thinking, just by how the last few storms played out. There's clearly something wrong with it.....And to replace a model that already is not exactly the best model, with one that has performed even worse just seems backwards On the latest verification charts, the current version is outperforming the parallel on all the categories (heights, slp, temperature, winds) for both the 0z and 12z runs (no scores are provided for 6z and 18z). The persistence of the performance gap and its being widespread strongly suggests that the parallel is not as good as the version it is replacing. The new assimilation framework may be better, but something is resulting in overall worse performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 GFS has a nice ridge in the west. Pattern doesn't look terrible at all moving forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 From 65 on Sunday to 22 on Thursdayhttp://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Brooklyn&state=NY&site=OKX&lat=40.6498&lon=-73.9488#.VKeiyskhHlY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Perhaps those warm waters off the coast will provide extra energy for our clipper. Low expectations continue but it's something to track knowing rain would not be the result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Perhaps those warm waters off the coast will provide extra energy for our clipper. Low expectations continue but it's something to track knowing rain would not be the result. Long Island may ultimately receive slightly higher amounts...particularly assuming a surface feature that tracks off the central NJ coast and, as it "turns the proverbial corner"...deepens just a bit and taps the veritable bathwater offshore...could conceivably see a bit of a snowburst out there...particularly towards sunset Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 But those higher heights doesn't necessarily translate to warm temps at the surface not to mention we're going off a Day 10 map. The Gfs really hits the PNA like style ridging hard and thus the storm threats. I could see a few SWFE and maybe even a nice digging disturbance that translates to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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