danstorm Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Clipper looks nice on the gfs. Wow Wednesday is cold on the gfs. If D-2 is nice, I agree... but with a flat, fast flow, I'm not enthused. Wednesday may be an early high of 20 kind of day then falling sharply late afternoon. I'll be in Irvine, CA on a business trip next week and am looking forward to the mild temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 any fantasy storms in euro land? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Next Thursday is the coldest on the 12z Euro. It could be the first time NYC has reached 60 and made it to 10 or a little lower Jan 1-10 if the whole forecast verifies. The previous big swings were 2012 and 2008 but those years only dropped to 12 and 13 while reaching 60 during the first 10 days of January. NYC 1-4-12.......13 1-7-12.......62 1-3-08.......12 1-8-08.......64 I recall it coming close to that criteria in 1982...57 F on January 4th...and just 7 F on January 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Next Thursday is the coldest on the 12z Euro. It could be the first time NYC has reached 60 and made it to 10 or a little lower Jan 1-10 if the whole forecast verifies. The previous big swings were 2012 and 2008 but those years only dropped to 12 and 13 while reaching 60 during the first 10 days of January. NYC 1-4-12.......13 1-7-12.......62 1-3-08.......12 1-8-08.......64 The cold is almost always overdone. Coldest morning low will probably be mid teens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 The cold is almost always overdone. Coldest morning low will probably be mid teens The problem is exacerbated by limited snow cover in the East (though that might change) and wide open Great Lakes. The Great Lakes play a huge (and largely underpublicized) role in modifying southeast bound arctic anticyclones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 The problem is exacerbated by limited snow cover in the East (though that might change) and wide open Great Lakes. The Great Lakes play a huge (and largely underpublicized) role in modifying southeast bound arctic anticyclones. There could be snow around, at the very least nearby. Even if that clipper drops just enough to cover the ground, it will help a great deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 The problem is exacerbated by limited snow cover in the East (though that might change) and wide open Great Lakes. The Great Lakes play a huge (and largely underpublicized) role in modifying southeast bound arctic anticyclones. Another interesting thing is how arctic air tends to begin to lose just a bit of its punch when it comes down to NYC's latitude...I mean, the coldest temperature ever recorded in North Dakota (around 48 N or just south of 49 N) is something like -60 F (at Parshall, IIRC)...which is in step with some of the coldest readings in towns across the Prairie Provinces of Canada...but get down to say Nebraska...more in line with NYC's latitude...and the coldest temperature recorded in that jurisdiction is something like -47 F...not balmy, by any means...but a trend towards modification is readily apparent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 With the troposphere gradually cooling over the next 10 days or so...and atmospheric dynamics more conducive to holding some moisture concurrently...some snow...even for NYC proper...seems likely before the month is out...I went with about 7 inches (just over half a foot) for Central Park in January about six weeks ago...and I think some outlying suburban & rural areas within the OKX CWA will likely see over a foot this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 With the troposphere gradually cooling over the next 10 days or so...and atmospheric dynamics more conducive to holding some moisture concurrently...some snow...even for NYC proper...seems likely before the month is out...I went with about 7 inches (just over half a foot) for Central Park in January about six weeks ago...and I think some outlying suburban & rural areas within the OKX CWA will likely see over a foot this month. I get a sense that cumulative snowfall this January may very well reflect a gradient-like pattern...with places south of a line from say Staten Island over to Allentown / Bethlehem receiving considerably lesser amounts of snow than places to the north of that invisible but still influential line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Another interesting thing is how arctic air tends to begin to lose just a bit of its punch when it comes down to NYC's latitude...I mean, the coldest temperature ever recorded in North Dakota (around 48 N or just south of 49 N) is something like -60 F (at Parshall, IIRC)...which is in step with some of the coldest readings in towns across the Prairie Provinces of Canada...but get down to say Nebraska...more in line with NYC's latitude...and the coldest temperature recorded in that jurisdiction is something like -47 F...not balmy, by any means...but a trend towards modification is readily apparent. Cold air has trouble making it over the lakes and mountains. Then there's that big warm ocean sitting nearby... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Next Thursday is the coldest on the 12z Euro. It could be the first time NYC has reached 60 and made it to 10 or a little lower Jan 1-10 if the whole forecast verifies. The previous big swings were 2012 and 2008 but those years only dropped to 12 and 13 while reaching 60 during the first 10 days of January. NYC 1-4-12.......13 1-7-12.......62 1-3-08.......12 1-8-08.......64 If only last January had been 5 degrees warmer... 1/6/14... 55 1/7/14... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 I remember January 1972 being a wild swing month...62 degrees at midnight and a few mornings later it was 5 degrees...A few days later it was 57 degrees...we haven't seen any teens or single digits in the city so far...the lowest so far is 22 in November...19 is the all time highest winter minimum in 2001-02... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Cold air has trouble making it over the lakes and mountains. Then there's that big warm ocean sitting nearby... I've definitely made that point...time w/o number...the part about the lakes in a post made within the last hour...the point I was seeking to convey in the quoted post is one separate & distinct from the ones you cite...about how latitude seems to suddenly take on more significance with regards to potential extreme minima south of the far northern tier of the U.S. in the interior of the N. American continent...by choosing two states (N. Dakota & Nebraska) where other factors (the Great Lakes, the Appalachians, and the Atlantic Ocean) are generally non contributing elements in the equation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Yeah, it been extremely rare in NYC history to drop below -10 due to the difficulty of getting the strongest possible CAA from 850 to surface while on a N to NNW flow down the Hudson Valley. The only 4 times I know about are Feb 34, Dec 17, 1850's, 1780. We probably could have broken -10 in January 94 and 85 if the flow was more northerly instead of westerly. I mean in fairness...much of it can be attributed to the UHI...as towns in Jersey and Connecticut have both cracked the -30 F barrier on more than one occasion...even Upton on Long Island once descended to -23 F before Suffolk County began to get built up just a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 UHI has been a factor since the early 1900's in NYC since all record cold days needed the winds to stay up. That would seem to be quite the paradox when compared with the rest of the non UHI world...coldest temperatures are always recorded when the winds are calm and the atmosphere is stable...i.e. something of an inversion is present / temperature increases with altitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 I've definitely made that point...time w/o number...the part about the lakes in a post made within the last hour...the point I was seeking to convey in the quoted post is one separate & distinct from the ones you cite...about how latitude seems to suddenly take on more significance with regards to potential extreme minima south of the far northern tier of the U.S. in the interior of the N. American continent...by choosing two states (N. Dakota & Nebraska) where other factors (the Great Lakes, the Appalachians, and the Atlantic Ocean) are generally non contributing elements in the equation. Yeah I saw after I replied... I started from most recent post and went up (you know its quiet nation-wide when I wander into the NYC subforum ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 One wonders if Central Park was ever really a radiator like surrounding rural areas still are... being up on a hill surrounded by water probably isn't good for radiational cooling... ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Yeah I saw after I replied... I started from most recent post and went up (you know its quiet nation-wide when I wander into the NYC subforum ) Its seems you have been in Nevada since the times of Bugsy Siegel? Ever coming back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 One wonders if Central Park was ever really a radiator like surrounding rural areas still are... being up on a hill surrounded by water probably isn't good for radiational cooling... ever. I mean it was certainly a good deal cooler before Dutch settlements sprung up near the start of the 1600's and the area was known as New Amsterdam...but otherwise, I would figure that basic climatological factors (proximity to bodies of water, topography, site exposure, soil type) would still be the essential controlling & determinative factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 January 2004 came really close making it to 58 and 1 within the first 10 days of the month. 1-3-04....58 1-4-04....58 1-10-04..1 I remember 1/10/04. I believe I dropped below zero that night. It was my 21st birthday and I was hammered so I can't be sure. Do you remember what you dropped to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 I mean it was certainly a good deal cooler before Dutch settlements sprung up near the start of the 1600's and the area was known as New Amsterdam...but otherwise, I would figure that basic climatological factors (proximity to bodies of water, topography, site exposure, soil type) would still be the essential controlling & determinative factors. Well, there was that little ice age back in the day Otherwise, yeah I doubt Central Park ever radiated like, say, Somerville or Westhampton does now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 I remember 1/10/04. I believe I dropped below zero that night. It was my 21st birthday and I was hammered so I can't be sure. Do you remember what you dropped to? I was -1F in Merrick that night I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 That's a good point. I would guess that portions of interior Brooklyn and Queens probably would have been better radiators before they were developed. agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 january 2004 featured a clipper with the highest snow:liquid ratios i've ever seen... 7" of snow from just around .25" liquid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 january 2004 featured a clipper with the highest snow:liquid ratios i've ever seen... 7" of snow from just around .25" liquid I remember there were epic bust calls early that evening too, it was a bit slow to get going, the event a week later too had people jumping off bridges the first few hours of the evening til everyone started snowing 2 inches an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 I was -1F in Merrick that night I believe I don't believe the Islip Airport has fallen below zero since 1988..which is rather strange...they do not radiate nearly as well as Westhampton, but they do radiate a good deal better than LGA or JFK...it may just be random chance (i.e. the best potential nights were partly cloudy...or windy...or there was a lack of snow cover...or the Sound was still rather warm). The ever expanding NYC urban heat island...parts of Nassau County now look indistinguishable from Queens per my recent drive through...is also a likely culprit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 january 2004 featured a clipper with the highest snow:liquid ratios i've ever seen... 7" of snow from just around .25" liquid One of our only fake snow events in these parts. I remember that morning it looked like a solid secs event, 6" plus then by that evening the fluff compacted and sublimated down to just 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 One of our only fake snow events in these parts. I remember that morning it looked like a solid secs event, 6" plus then by that evening the fluff compacted and sublimated down to just 2". What a splendid winter 2003-04 was out on Long Island..with more than 60 inches of snow recorded out at the Brookhaven National Laboratory (more snow than fell at the Worcester, Massachusetts Airport that winter!), incredible January cold...and a major snowstorm in December. The attached image is courtesy of board member NorthShoreWx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 I was -1F in Merrick that night I believe That's what I remember as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 What a splendid winter 2003-04 was out on Long Island..with more than 60 inches of snow recorded out at the Brookhaven National Laboratory (more snow than fell at the Worcester, Massachusetts Airport that winter!), incredible January cold...and a major snowstorm in December. The attached image is courtesy of board member NorthShoreWx. Some representative snowfall totals from the 2003-04 season: Washington D.C. (Reagan): 12.4 inches Atlantic City: 16.9 inches Washington D.C. (Dulles): 17.4 inches Philadelphia: 17.8 inches Baltimore (BWI): 18.3 inches Boston (Logan): 39.4 inches Worcester: 49.4 inches BNL Upton (Long Island): 60.2 inches It's not often that Upton ends up with more snow than Logan Airport in Boston, though it happens from time to time. But for the Long Island station located on the grounds of the Brookhaven National Laboratory to finish with more snow than Worcester Airport, which is at an elevation of around 1000 feet in the Eastern New England Upland, well that is a rarity indeed. Link to BNL snowfall: http://www.bnl.gov/w...hlySnowfall.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.