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January Forecast Discussion


REDMK6GLI

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The SE Ridge is already knocking on the door again by day 10.

Honestly nothing in the long range gets me excited...the se ridge is pumping and the pv is going to consolidate again...the mjo refuses to go into phase 7/8...all the while the nao is super postitive...yes it Will be colder. but snow will not be coming outside a clipper this winter has been a huge disappointment.

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While there is no science behind this, I live by the rule that if you don't see at least one snowstorm in December it is usually a crap winter in terms of snowfall. While it is to early to say how the rest of this winter will play out with regards to seasonal snow totals (because it only takes one winter storm to tip the scale) things are not looking to promising at the moment.

 

 

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While there is no science behind this, I live by the rule that if you don't see at least one snowstorm in December it is usually a crap winter in terms of snowfall. While it is to early to say how the rest of this winter will play out with regards to seasonal snow totals (because it only takes one winter storm to tip the scale) things are not looking to promising at the moment.

there's some support for that...someone posted on another board that if Dec is under 3 inches in NYC the ensuing winter almost always features BN snowfall.

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How about this clipper GFS has been showing around Tuesday-Wednesday next week? A clipper might be our best chance to get accumulating snow in this pattern. Pretty clear there will not be any big snowstorms anytime soon. Just give me a little 1 to 2 inch snowfall to whiten the ground, and I'll be happy. The fact that we had a lot of snow last winter makes a winter like this one easier to tolerate.

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Yeah, it looks like it will be colder for several days after the weekend warm up before the SE Ridge/WAR reloads again.

The Euro weeklies look identical to the JMA monthly that I posted last week. You knew when that -AO was

a no show the first week of December that things would head downhill fast.

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2014/12/29/ecmwf-monthly-run-6/

And the Euro has been so impressive said no one. I don't trust a thing past 3 days with the models this year. Pathetic performance. With that said, I'm finding it quite interesting not knowing what will actually unfold. I want snow as much as the rest but it's shutout city right now. I'd take no snow all of Jan if it meant a KU storm in Feb.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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I guess the only question is how positive will the AO end up for the whole month of January.

ao.sprd2.gif

I think we can safely say that atleast through the middle of january it will be warmer than average, after first ten days. Thereafter is the wild card, IF the PV indeed does split it may help tank or drop substantially the NAO/AO towards the end of the month. If that doesnt work out it will no doubt be the same pattern we are in for january unabated. Cold/dry - Warm/rain

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I think we can safely say that atleast through the middle of january it will be warmer than average, after first ten days. Thereafter is the wild card, IF the PV indeed does split it may help tank or drop substantially the NAO/AO towards the end of the month. If that doesnt work out it will no doubt be the same pattern we are in for january unabated. Cold/dry - Warm/rain

I highly doubt it will be above normal through mid January. Did you look at the models? It's a moot point regardless, as the overall pattern is crappy, unless you're a fan of cold and dry there's nothing to get excited about.
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I think we can safely say that atleast through the middle of january it will be warmer than average, after first ten days. Thereafter is the wild card, IF the PV indeed does split it may help tank or drop substantially the NAO/AO towards the end of the month. If that doesnt work out it will no doubt be the same pattern we are in for january unabated. Cold/dry - Warm/rain

Click the 8-14 outlook when you get there.  Seems even better.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/index.php

 

The controversy would be that the GFS ensembles show SE Ridging starting again about day 10 giving a 1 to 1.5SD above normal heights indication, while the EURO ensembles say the SE Ridge will be non-existant in 10 days!

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I guess the only question is how positive will the AO end up for the whole month of January.

If somebody said back in October that December and January would feature a +AO 

they probably would have been laughed at. Just goes to show how challenging winter forecasts

can be if made before December starts. 

 

attachicon.gifao.sprd2.gif

If that AO forecast verifies, it could be difficult to have a negative AO winter, even if blocking develops later this month. December wound up just above +0.4 subject to some minor changes when the final data is in. Moreover, such a forecast makes it increasingly likely that the early promising work may have big limitations when it comes to forecasting the winter state of the AO. I hope that isn't the case, as it would amount to a large setback for longer-range winter forecasting, but it is a risk that can't be dismissed.

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Don, it's interesting that the several high October Eurasian snow cover extent years in the early 70's also didn't

produce the strong -AO response people were expecting this winter. But I am not sure how accurate those

older October extents are to recent years.

I agree. Although if this year doesn't produce much of an AO- response, what happened during the 1970s might indicate more a limitation of SAI than snow cover data quality.

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If one glanced at the GFS ensemble forecasts, one could not have been inspired by numerous ensemble members that tower over NYC's Freedom Tower. With the AO having risen sharply from -0.776 two days ago to +2.010 today, the frightening ensemble forecast appears poised to verify at least in the short-term.

 

AO12312014.jpg

 

It remains plausible that the EPO-, if sustained, can salvage a cold or at least near normal month in terms of temperatures. However, if one is looking ahead to January snowfall, hoping to recover from than December's paltry 1.0" figure, the AO forecast presents almost as clear as a stop signal as possible. Of course, there can be exceptions e.g., as occurred during Winter 2004-05, where the AO made a dramatic flip to a persistent strongly negative state amidst ENSO conditions remarkably similar to the current ones..

 

If one is look to ring in 2015 in a joyous mood, read no further.

 

In any case, the gruesome statistics are below.

 

AONYCJan_Snowfall.jpg

 

For now, I'll keep my faith in the EPO to do the proverbial heavy lifting in supplying cold. I'll hold out some hope that the AO will flip after mid-month and then the snows will begin to fall. Before then, I'll hope for one or two 1"-3"-type snowfalls to provide a reminder that it is truly winter, but whether the AO will allow this remains to be seen.

 

Happy New Year to all.

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