IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Surface low to Indiana. Light activity moving in, rain/snow mix. BL is warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Looks a lot like the PGFS except that the surface low ends up further northeast and almost 20mb weaker. It's all rain except for those in NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Euro is to amped. GFS so far is the best solution. Typical of the Euro amping things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 No surprise to see the Euro come in warmer than 0z with such a strong SE Ridge in place. 850's are around +12C to start Sunday. Yep...limits the front end potential for sne and us.. Oh well...always the day 10 clipper lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Of the 12 GFS ensembles for 12Z...1 is identical to the Op, 1 is more amped, 3 are similar, 2 have no storm at all more or less, 5 are weaker and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 The trend has been weaker storms so I wouldn't be surprised if that continues. We're still talking 4 days out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Of the 12 GFS ensembles for 12Z...1 is identical to the Op, 1 is more amped, 3 are similar, 2 have no storm at all more or less, 5 are weaker and south. Still looks like all options are on the table but leaning towards a more cutter-like scenario based on all the other 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 The SE Ridge is already knocking on the door again by day 10. Thats not really a SE ridge thats a transient increase in heights as the WRN ridge flattens, thats the period I think we go zonal and probably moderate through about 1/15 -1/20 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 The SE Ridge is already knocking on the door again by day 10. Honestly nothing in the long range gets me excited...the se ridge is pumping and the pv is going to consolidate again...the mjo refuses to go into phase 7/8...all the while the nao is super postitive...yes it Will be colder. but snow will not be coming outside a clipper this winter has been a huge disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 While there is no science behind this, I live by the rule that if you don't see at least one snowstorm in December it is usually a crap winter in terms of snowfall. While it is to early to say how the rest of this winter will play out with regards to seasonal snow totals (because it only takes one winter storm to tip the scale) things are not looking to promising at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I took me 15 minutes to read this post with all the periods in there... Sorry posting on my new kindle fire. Trying to get use to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 While there is no science behind this, I live by the rule that if you don't see at least one snowstorm in December it is usually a crap winter in terms of snowfall. While it is to early to say how the rest of this winter will play out with regards to seasonal snow totals (because it only takes one winter storm to tip the scale) things are not looking to promising at the moment. there's some support for that...someone posted on another board that if Dec is under 3 inches in NYC the ensuing winter almost always features BN snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 How about this clipper GFS has been showing around Tuesday-Wednesday next week? A clipper might be our best chance to get accumulating snow in this pattern. Pretty clear there will not be any big snowstorms anytime soon. Just give me a little 1 to 2 inch snowfall to whiten the ground, and I'll be happy. The fact that we had a lot of snow last winter makes a winter like this one easier to tolerate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Yeah, it looks like it will be colder for several days after the weekend warm up before the SE Ridge/WAR reloads again. The Euro weeklies look identical to the JMA monthly that I posted last week. You knew when that -AO was a no show the first week of December that things would head downhill fast. https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2014/12/29/ecmwf-monthly-run-6/ And the Euro has been so impressive said no one. I don't trust a thing past 3 days with the models this year. Pathetic performance. With that said, I'm finding it quite interesting not knowing what will actually unfold. I want snow as much as the rest but it's shutout city right now. I'd take no snow all of Jan if it meant a KU storm in Feb. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Curious. Do the Europeans use the GFS? Or just the Euro and UKMET? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Curious. Do the Europeans use the GFS? Or just the Euro and UKMET? Sent from my iPhone http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014123012/gfs_asnow_eu.html "Why go out for hamburgers.... when you have steak at home!" David Cameron Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Lets hope the clipper stays on the models. It looks good for the area as of right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Lets hope the clipper stays on the models. It looks good for the area as of right now. The way things have been going . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 The way things have been going . . . We did really well with these type of disturbances last year. Maybe we will get lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 We did really well with these type of disturbances last year. Maybe we will get lucky. Alas, this year seems nothing like last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Gfs has a,miller b system around d7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 I guess the only question is how positive will the AO end up for the whole month of January. ao.sprd2.gif I think we can safely say that atleast through the middle of january it will be warmer than average, after first ten days. Thereafter is the wild card, IF the PV indeed does split it may help tank or drop substantially the NAO/AO towards the end of the month. If that doesnt work out it will no doubt be the same pattern we are in for january unabated. Cold/dry - Warm/rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I think we can safely say that atleast through the middle of january it will be warmer than average, after first ten days. Thereafter is the wild card, IF the PV indeed does split it may help tank or drop substantially the NAO/AO towards the end of the month. If that doesnt work out it will no doubt be the same pattern we are in for january unabated. Cold/dry - Warm/rainI highly doubt it will be above normal through mid January. Did you look at the models? It's a moot point regardless, as the overall pattern is crappy, unless you're a fan of cold and dry there's nothing to get excited about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I think we can safely say that atleast through the middle of january it will be warmer than average, after first ten days. Thereafter is the wild card, IF the PV indeed does split it may help tank or drop substantially the NAO/AO towards the end of the month. If that doesnt work out it will no doubt be the same pattern we are in for january unabated. Cold/dry - Warm/rain Click the 8-14 outlook when you get there. Seems even better. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/index.php The controversy would be that the GFS ensembles show SE Ridging starting again about day 10 giving a 1 to 1.5SD above normal heights indication, while the EURO ensembles say the SE Ridge will be non-existant in 10 days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I guess the only question is how positive will the AO end up for the whole month of January. If somebody said back in October that December and January would feature a +AO they probably would have been laughed at. Just goes to show how challenging winter forecasts can be if made before December starts. ao.sprd2.gif If that AO forecast verifies, it could be difficult to have a negative AO winter, even if blocking develops later this month. December wound up just above +0.4 subject to some minor changes when the final data is in. Moreover, such a forecast makes it increasingly likely that the early promising work may have big limitations when it comes to forecasting the winter state of the AO. I hope that isn't the case, as it would amount to a large setback for longer-range winter forecasting, but it is a risk that can't be dismissed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Given that AO forecast it wouldn't surprise me if January finished above normal temperature wise. If the EPO collapses we basically torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Don, it's interesting that the several high October Eurasian snow cover extent years in the early 70's also didn't produce the strong -AO response people were expecting this winter. But I am not sure how accurate those older October extents are to recent years. I agree. Although if this year doesn't produce much of an AO- response, what happened during the 1970s might indicate more a limitation of SAI than snow cover data quality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 If one glanced at the GFS ensemble forecasts, one could not have been inspired by numerous ensemble members that tower over NYC's Freedom Tower. With the AO having risen sharply from -0.776 two days ago to +2.010 today, the frightening ensemble forecast appears poised to verify at least in the short-term. It remains plausible that the EPO-, if sustained, can salvage a cold or at least near normal month in terms of temperatures. However, if one is looking ahead to January snowfall, hoping to recover from than December's paltry 1.0" figure, the AO forecast presents almost as clear as a stop signal as possible. Of course, there can be exceptions e.g., as occurred during Winter 2004-05, where the AO made a dramatic flip to a persistent strongly negative state amidst ENSO conditions remarkably similar to the current ones.. If one is look to ring in 2015 in a joyous mood, read no further. In any case, the gruesome statistics are below. For now, I'll keep my faith in the EPO to do the proverbial heavy lifting in supplying cold. I'll hold out some hope that the AO will flip after mid-month and then the snows will begin to fall. Before then, I'll hope for one or two 1"-3"-type snowfalls to provide a reminder that it is truly winter, but whether the AO will allow this remains to be seen. Happy New Year to all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Late next week looks very cold, it'll probably moderate some as we get closer but that is still an impressive airmass being modeled. If we can get some snow out of that clipper next week, we could get some impressive lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Clipper looks nice on the gfs. Wow Wednesday is cold on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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