January 2015 temperature forecast contest

[Roger Smith]

Forecasts for January 2015

__________________________

 

  

FORECASTER ______________ DCA __ NYC __ BOS __ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

hockeyinc ________________ +6.0 _ +4.5 _ +4.0 ___ +2.0 _ +3.5 _ +2.0 ____ --3.0 _ --2.0 _ --1.5

 

Uncle W __________________ +4.6 _ +4.5 _ +3.8 ___ +5.9 _ +3.3 _ +1.2 ____ --0.5 _ --0.5 _ --1.0

 

Carvers Gap _______________ +2.8 _ +1.6 _ +1.4 ___ --1.8 _ +2.9 _ --0.5 ____ --1.8 _ --2.8 _ --1.9

 

Stebo ____________________ +2.7 _ +3.3 _ +2.7 ___ --2.2 _ +3.4 _ --0.8 ____ --3.2 _ --2.2 _ --2.7

 

Midlo Snow Maker __________+2.4 _ +2.1 _ +2.0 ___ --1.0 _ +2.5 _ --1.9 ____ +2.9 _ +2.8 _ +2.9

 

Rjay ______________________+2.2 _ +1.8 _ +1.3 ___ +0.9 _ +2.5 _ +0.2 ____ --0.9 _ --1.0 _ --1.1

 

N. of Pike _________________ +1.8 _ +1.4 _ +0.9 ___ +1.0 _ +2.4 _ +1.4 ____ +1.0 _ +1.2 _ +1.4

 

H2OTown__Wx ____________ +1.8 _ +0.9 _ +1.1 ___ +3.2 _ +2.0 _ +1.5 ____ +1.7 _ --0.3 _ +1.9

 

BKViking _________________ +1.7 _ +0.6 _ --1.0 ___ --2.2 _ +1.3 _ --0.4 ____ --2.8 _ --2.5 _ --1.8

 

Wxallannj _________________ +1.5 _ +1.4 _ +0.8 ___ --2.5 _ +2.8 _ +0.5 ____ --1.8 _ --0.5 _ --1.1

 

hudsonvalley21 ____________ +1.3 _ +1.1 _ +0.9 ___ +1.8 _ +2.0 _ +0.3 ____ --1.2 _ --0.9 _ --1.3

 

donsutherland.1 ____________ +1.3 _ +0.4 _ --0.2 ___ +0.6 _ +1.8 _ +1.0 ____ +1.2 _ +0.8 _ +2.4

 

Quixotic1 _________________ +1.2 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 ____ 0.0 _ +2.3 __ 0.0 ____ --1.8 _ --0.2 _ --0.8

 

SACRUS __________________ +0.7 _ +0.5 _ +0.1 ___ --0.9 _ +1.4 _ +1.4 ____ --1.6 _ --1.6 _ +0.5

 

 

Consensus ________________ +0.7 _ +0.6 _ +0.1 ___ --1.8 _ +1.4 __ 0.0 ____ --1.3 _ --0.5 _ --0.4

 

 

Damage in Tolland __________ +0.6 _ --1.1 _ --1.9 ___ --2.1 _ +2.0 __ 0.0 ____ +0.7 _ +2.0 _ +0.2

 

SD _______________________ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +0.7 ___ --1.3 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ____ --2.0 _ --1.0 _ --0.5

 

blazess556 ________________ +0.3 _ +0.8 _ +0.6 ___ --1.2 _ +1.1 _ +1.2 ____ --2.1 _ --1.1 _ --0.6

 

Tom ______________________+0.2 _ --0.9 _ --1.8 ___ --2.4 _ +0.6 _ --0.4 ____ --1.4 _ +0.5 _ --0.4

 

 

Normal ____________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ______ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

 

 

ksammut __________________ 0.0 __ --0.8 _ --1.3 ___ --4.9 _ +0.8 _ --2.1 ____ --1.3 _ --0.7 _ --0.2

 

Absolute Humidity ___________--0.2 _ --1.1 _ --0.8 ___ --1.8 _ +1.2 _ +0.2 ____ --1.4 _ --0.5 _ +0.8

 

Mallow ____________________--0.4 _ --0.8 _ --1.3 ___ --2.2 _ --0.6 _ --2.0 ____ --1.9 _ +1.8 _ +1.9

 

RodneyS __________________ --0.9 _ --0.5 _ --0.5 ___ --4.7 _ --0.4 _ --5.6 ____ --5.2 _ --1.1 _ --0.6

 

metalicwx366 ______________ --1.9 _ --2.3 _ --2.7 ___ --3.2 _ --0.4 _ --0.4 ____ --2.2 _ +0.8 _ +0.9

 

wxdude64 _________________ --2.1 _ --0.4 _ --0.2 ___ +2.0 _ --1.4 _ --1.8 ____ +1.4 _ --1.2 _ --1.5

 

Isotherm __________________ --2.1 _ --2.2 _ --2.0 ___ --3.5 _ --1.5 _ --0.5 ____ +1.8 _ +1.5 _ +2.2

 

Tenman Johnson ____________--2.7 _ --2.7 _ --2.7 ___ --2.7 _ --2.7 _ --2.7

 

Roger Smith ________________--3.5 _ --3.7 _ --3.3 ___ --5.7 _ --2.5 _ --1.0 ____ +2.5 _ --0.2 _ +1.5

________________________________________________________________________________________

 

27 entries so far, Consensus is the median value.___

 

Jan 22 _ just for the record, in case anyone sees editing here, I was doing my usual quality control prior to excel table entry, and spotted one error in my entries ... H2OTown_Wx had +1.5 for IAH and I had entered it as +0.5 so that was the edit made today. I usually do this a lot earlier in the month to prevent late edits although to the best of my knowledge nobody ever tried that in any of our contests, you are all very honest folks.

[Isotherm]

Surprised at the number of people who went warm this month. So we'll be kicking off the new year with a strong divergence in scores depending upon how this month shakes out.

[Carvers Gap]

Surprised at the number of people who went warm this month. So we'll be kicking off the new year with a strong divergence in scores depending upon how this month shakes out.

 

I probably would have scaled back a bit, but I posted before Jan. 1.  Wasn't much model consensus for the upcoming cold snap until New Year's Day and onward.  However, mid-month should bring any colder averages back to Earth.  Personally, breaking the month into three ten day time frames, I thought the first two would go mild.  If I had posted on Jan 2, I would probably have backed-off the first third of the month in terms of temps. Hey, it is what it is.  I hope I am wrong and the East goes cold all month.  Those with cold Januarys in the East will take a quick lead and have to hold on IMO when the warmth may overtake the country mid month.  Tiebreaker will go to the end of January(where I think the East goes cold).   

[Quixotic1]

Surprised at the number of people who went warm this month. So we'll be kicking off the new year with a strong divergence in scores depending upon how this month shakes out.

Not as warm as I wanted to go. Alway hedge towards Climo.

[Roger Smith]

The snowfall contest has been updated to Jan 6th in the December thread. I will update it again around the 10th and start to post some January anomalies here. 

[Roger Smith]

(added note Jan 16 1545z _ Updates have been unavailable since end of 13th due to system problems at NWS, have seen the daily anomalies for 15th but not 14th and CF6 tables not updated yet ... end of month anomalies would all take a sharp rise on 31st according to today's 06z GFS which shows 50s or 60s on east coast that date, otherwise the estimates looked to be on track in general, so I have edited the last line of this table accordingly.)

_______________ DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

_____ 10d _____ -2.0 __ -3.9 __ -3.9 _____ -11.8 __ -3.0 __ -8.8 ______ -5.6 __ -1.0 __  +1.4

_____ 11d _____ -2.2 __ -4.0 __ -4.0 _____ -10.5 __ -3.3 __ -8.8 ______ -4.9 __ -0.2 __ +1.7

_____ 12d _____ -1.8 __ -3.2 __ -3.1 _____ --9.8 __  -3.0 __ -8.6 ______ -5.0 __ +0.2 __ +1.9

_____ 13d _____ -1.7 __-3.4 __ -3.1 _____ -10.0 __  -2.6 __ -8.6 ______ -4.9 __ +0.3 __ +1.8


meanwhile these would be the values after 20 days if the NWS forecasts verify:
 
_______________ -1.6 __ -3.3 __ -4.0 _____ --6.6 __ -1.5 __ -5.0 _____ +1.0 _ _+2.7 __ +3.0

and these are the end of month (to 31st) estimates based on GFS:

_______________ -2.5 __ -3.5 __ -3.7 _____ --6.0 __ -1.8 __ -3.0 _____ +2.4 __ +3.5 __ +2.4

This post will be edited for about a week with new data and projections, then a new post to bump the thread.

[wxdude64]

I'll throw the numbers out through the 16th, which I think are right.

DCA -1.6

NYC -3.4

BOS -3.3

ORD -8.7

ATL -2.8

IAH -8.5

DEN -2.7

PHO +0.8

SEA +1.4

Knew ORD was cold, but IAH is really running low!

[Roger Smith]

Countdown to final values . . . .

______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

_____ 16d _____ -1.6 _ -3.4 _ -3.3 ___ -8.7 _ -2.8 _ -8.5 ___ -2.7 _ +0.8 _ +1.4
_____ 17d _____ -1.6 _ -3.6 _ -3.9 ___ -7.5 _ -2.5 _ -8.0 ___ -1.7 _ +1.0 _ +1.6
_____ 18d _____ -1.3 _ -3.2 _ -3.3 ___ -6.5 _ -2.0 _ -7.3 ___ -0.6 _ +1.2 _ +2.1
_____ 19d _____ -0.8 _ -2.7 _ -2.7 ___ -5.6 _ -1.5 _ -6.9 ___ +0.1 _ +1.4 _ +2.3
_____ 20d _____ -0.6 _ -2.3 _ -2.2 ___ -4.9 _ -0.8 _ -6.3 ___ +0.3 _ +1.6 _ +2.2
_____ 21d _____ -0.6 _ -2.3 _ -2.1 ___ -4.3 _ -0.2 _ -5.5 ____ 0.0 _ +1.8 _ +1.9
_____ 22d _____ -0.3 _ -2.0 _ -1.8 ___ -3.9 __ 0.0 _ -5.3 ___ -0.5 _ +1.7 _ +1.9
_____ 23d _____ -0.3 _ -1.9 _ -1.7 ___ -3.4 _ -0.1 _ -5.5 ___ -0.5 _ +1.5 _ +2.2
_____ 24d ______ 0.0 _ -1.6 _ -1.4 ___ -2.8 _ -0.1 _ -5.5 ____ 0.0 _ +1.7 _ +2.4
_____ 25d _____ +0.3 _ -1.4 _ -1.4 ___ -2.5 __0.0 _ -5.2 ___ +0.5 _ +1.9 _ +2.9
_____ 26d _____ +0.3 _ -1.6 _ -1.7 ___ -2.5 _ -0.2 _ -5.2 ___ +1.3 _ +2.0 _ +3.2
_____ 27d _____ +0.2 _ -1.8 _ -2.1 ___ -2.4 _ -0.3 _ -4.4 ___ +2.3 _ +2.2 _ +3.3
_____ 28d _____ +0.1 _ -2.0 _ -2.4 ___ -2.2 _ -0.3 _ -4.0 ___ +2.7 _ +2.3 _ +3.3
_____ 29d _____ --0.1 _ -2.2 _ -2.6 ___ -1.8 _ -0.2 _ -3.6 ___ +2.9 _ +2.4 _ +3.3
_____ 30d _____ --0.2 _ -2.2 _ -2.6 ___ -1.8 _ -0.1 _ -3.4 ___ +3.1 _ +2.3 _ +3.1

_____ 31d _____ --0.4 _-2.7 _-2.9 ___-1.5 _ -0.2 _ -3.3 ___+3.2 _+2.2 _+3.1

 

Numbers in bold are final and confirmed. 

 

Note that the snowfall contest will be updated this afternoon through Jan 31st and the scores are listed here:

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44930-december-2014-temperature-forecast-contest-happy-holidays/#entry3170277

 

I will continue to update that every 2 days or so, as long as it doesn't snow at ATL or IAH, all of us will eventually get to the max of 20 points there unless we said no snow. Scores are currently very close with SD clinging to a narrow lead overall.

[Roger Smith]

Final scoring for January 2015

 

  

FORECASTER ______________DCA_NYC_BOS __Classic__ ORD_ATL_IAH___Expanded__TOTAL

  

Mallow ___________________100 _ 62 _ 68 ___ 230 ____ 86 _ 92 _ 74 ___ 252 ____ 482

Tenman Johnson ___________ 54 _100_ 96 ___ 250 ____ 76 _ 50 _ 88 ___ 214 ____ 464

metalicwx366 ______________ 70 _ 92 _ 96 ___ 258 ____ 66 _96 _ 42 ___ 204 ____ 462

Tom _____________________ 88 _ 64 _ 78 ___ 230 ____ 82 _ 84 _ 42 ___ 208 ____ 438

Absolute Humidity ___________96 _ 68 _ 58 ___ 222 ____ 94 _ 72 _ 30 ___ 196 ____ 418

Isotherm __________________66 _ 90 _ 82 ___ 238 ____ 60 _ 74 _ 44 ___ 178 ____ 416

ksammut __________________92 _ 62 _ 68 ___ 222 ____ 32 _ 80 _ 76 ___ 188 ____ 410

Damage in Tolland __________ 80 _ 68 _ 80 ___ 228 ____ 88 _ 56 _ 34 ___ 178 ____ 406

RodneyS __________________ 90 _ 56 _ 52 ___ 198 ____ 36 _ 96 _ 54 ___ 186 ____ 384

  

Normal ___________________ 92 _ 46 _ 42 ___ 180 ____ 70 _ 96 _ 34 ___ 200 ____ 380

  

BKViking __________________ 58 _ 34 _ 62 ___ 154 ____ 86 _ 70 _ 42 ___ 198 ____ 352

 

Consensus ________________ 78 _ 34 _ 40 ___ 152 ____ 94 _ 68 _ 34 ___ 196 ____ 348

 

wxdude64 _________________66 _ 54 _ 46 ___ 166 ____ 30 _ 76 _ 70 ___ 176 ____ 342

Roger Smith _______________ 38 _ 80 _ 92 ___ 210 ____ 16 _ 54 _ 54 ___ 124 ____ 334

blazess556 ________________ 86 _ 30 _ 30 ___ 146 ____ 94 _ 74 _ 10 ___ 178 ____ 324

SD _______________________82 _ 26 _ 28 ___ 136 ____ 96 _ 76 _ 14 ___ 186 ____ 322

SACRUS __________________ 78 _ 36 _ 40 ___ 154 ____ 88 _ 68 _ 06 ___ 162 ____ 316

donsutherland.1 ____________ 66 _ 38 _ 46 ___ 150 ____ 58 _ 60 _ 14 ___ 132 ____ 282

Quixotic1 _________________ 68 _ 26 _ 32 ___ 126 ____ 70 _ 50 _ 34 ___ 154 ____ 280

Midlo Snow Maker __________ 44 _ 04 _ 02 ____ 50 ____ 90 _ 46 _ 72 ___ 208 ____ 258

wxallannj _________________ 62 _ 18 _ 26 ____106 ____ 80 _ 40 _ 24 ___ 144 ____ 250

Carvers Gap _______________ 36 _ 14 _ 14 ____ 64 ____ 94 _ 38 _ 44 ___ 176 ____ 240

hudsonvalley21 ____________ 66 _ 24 _ 24 ____114 ____ 34 _ 56 _ 28 ___ 118 ____ 232

Stebo ____________________ 38 _ 00 _ 00 ____ 38 ____ 86 _ 28 _ 50 ___ 164 ____ 202

Rjay _____________________ 48 _ 10 _ 16 ____ 74 ____ 52 _ 46 _ 30 ___ 128 ____ 202

N. of Pike (formerly Cpick79)__ 56 _ 18 _ 24 ____ 98 ____ 50 _ 48 _ 06 ___ 104 ____ 202

H2OTown__Wx ____________ 56 _ 28 _ 20 ____104 ____ 06 _ 56 _ 04 ____ 66 ____ 170

hockeyinc _________________ 00 _ 00 _ 00 ____ 00 ____ 30 _ 26 _ 00 ____ 56 _____ 56

Uncle W __________________ 00 _ 00 _ 00 ____ 00 ____ 00 _ 30 _ 10 ____ 40 _____ 40

________________________________________________________________________________________

 

 

Western contest -- final scoring January 2015

 

FORECASTER ___________ DEN_PHX_SEA____ TOTAL (all nine in brackets, with = ranks)

 

Midlo Snow Maker ________  94 _ 88 _ 96____ 278 _____ (536) = 7

Isotherm ________________ 72 _ 86 _ 82 ____ 240 _____ (656) = 1

donsutherland.1 __________ 60 _ 72 _ 86 ____ 218 _____ (500) = 9

Roger Smith ______________86 _ 52 _ 68 ____ 206 _____ (540) = 6

N. of Pike _______________  56 _ 80 _ 66 ____ 202 _____ (404) =14

H2OTown__Wx __________  70 _ 50 _ 76 ____ 196 _____ (366) =18

Damage in Tolland ________ 50 _ 96 _ 42 ____ 188 _____ (594) = 3

Mallow __________________00 _ 92 _ 76 ____ 168 _____ (650) = 2

 

Normal _________________ 36 _ 56 _ 38 _____130 _____ (510) = 9

 

metalicwx366 _____________00 _ 72 _ 56 _____128 _____ (590) = 4

Absolute Humidity _________ 08 _ 46 _ 54 ____ 108 _____ (526) = 8

wxdude64 _______________ 64 _ 32 _ 08 ____ 104 _____ (446) =12

Tom ____________________ 08 _ 66 _ 30 ____ 104 _____ (542) = 5

Uncle W _________________ 26 _ 46 _ 18 _____ 90 _____ (130) =26

ksammut _________________10 _ 42 _ 34 _____ 86 _____ (496) =10

 

Consensus _______________ 10 _ 46 _ 30 _____ 86 _____ (434) =14

 

SACRUS _________________ 04 _ 24 _ 48 _____ 76 _____ (392) =15

Quixotic1 ________________ 00 _ 52 _ 22 _____ 74 _____ (354) =20

Rjay ____________________ 18 _ 36 _ 16 _____ 70 _____ (272) =23

SD _____________________ 00 _ 36 _ 28 _____ 64 _____ (386) =16

hudsonvalley21 ___________ 12 _ 38 _ 12 _____ 62 _____ (294) =22

Wxallannj ________________00 _ 46 _ 16 _____ 62 _____ (312) =21

blazess556 _______________00 _ 34 _ 26 _____ 60 _____ (384) =17

RodneyS _________________00 _ 34 _ 26 _____ 60 _____ (444) =13

hockeyinc ________________00 _ 16 _ 08 _____ 24 ______ (80) =27

Stebo ___________________ 00 _ 12 _ 00 _____ 12 _____ (214) =25

BKViking _________________00 _ 06 _ 02 _____ 08 _____ (360) =19

Carvers Gap ______________ 00 _ 00 _ 00 _____ 00 _____ (240) =24

 

(not entered in western)

 

Tenman Johnson ___________________________________ (464) =11

[Roger Smith]

One good thing about January scoring is that we don't need an annual table. For now, I am adding this provisional set of "extreme forecast" scores, continuing on from last year when a considerable number of extreme forecasts won or else the second most extreme won. For a month to get a mention here, either the most extreme or the second most extreme forecast (in the direction of the actual anomaly unless everyone gets the sign wrong) has to achieve top score or a tie for it. Then the extreme forecast either wins or "loses" and if it loses, the second most extreme "wins." Note that a second most extreme forecast cannot be counted as a loss, only an extreme forecast can be a loss. A loss here is not that bad an outcome in most cases, it might be second highest score or fairly high anyway depending on how forecasts are distributed on the other side of actual. Normal can participate in this theoretically, if it comes closer than any actual forecast. Consensus obviously cannot.

 

In January, these months and forecasts have qualified for an extreme forecast decision. 2nd extreme is only cited where it can win under these rules. No entry there means that an extreme forecast has won the month. This was shown last year as an "A" type win and the others were shown as "B" -- this year I am changing the format but not the actual rules.

 

Month ___________ Location ____ Anomaly _____ Extreme forecast ____ 2nd extreme ___ W-L decision

 

Jan 2015 __________ NYC _______ -2.7 _________ -3.5 Roger Smith ___ -2.7 Tenman ___ (L) RS _ (W) TJ

Jan 2015 __________ BOS _______ -2.9 _________ -3.3 Roger Smith ___ -2.7 TJ, met ___ (L) RS (W) TJ,m

Jan 2015 __________ IAH _______ -3.3 __________-5.9 Rodney S _____ -2.7 Tenman ___ (L) Rod (W) TJ

Jan 2015 __________ DEN _______ +3.2 _________+2.9 Midlo ________ (+2.5) ________ (W) Midlo

Jan 2015 __________ PHX _______ +2.2 _________ +2.8 Midlo ________ +2.0 Damage __ (L) Mid (W) Dam

Jan 2015 __________ SEA _______ +3.1 _________ +2.9 Midlo ________ (+2.4) ________(W) Midlo

 

__________________________________________________________________

 

Tenman Johnson _____ 3-0

Midlo Snow Maker ____ 2-1

Damage in Tolland ____ 1-0

metalicwx366 ________ 1-0

RodneyS ____________ 0-1

Roger Smith _________ 0-2

 

Don't forget to enter February's contest (to avoid penalty points enter on Saturday 31st before 06z Sunday 1st of February, penalties are 1% per 2h after 06z Sunday to 18z Monday then 1% per hour after that.)