Roger Smith Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Just a heads up to regulars and prospective new contest entrants -- in view of the holiday situation, you can make a forecast any time on the first or second if you want, and the time penalties will only start at 06z Jan 3rd. At that point they will count down on the usual pace of 1% per 2 hours, but then to catch up, I will go to double the usual pace from 06z Monday 5th at which time the penalty would be sitting at 24%, so that by 06z on Tuesday 6th it will have reached 72% and the absolute deadline is reached at 20z on the 6th. So that should allow you to (ahem) get your head together on Friday and submit a forecast. In general, I will stick to the usual penalty structure in every other month (1% reduction for every 2h late after 06z of 1st), and that's fairly relaxed in and of itself, but it does give an incentive for folks to post on time. How much do you actually gain by being a bit late? Probably not as much as these penalties remove from your score, but it might be a fairly close trade-off if the models change substantially on the first or second, so I have decided against any further reductions. We're probably at the best balance point now. The stations to be predicted each month will remain the same: DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ___ DEN __ PHX __ SEA and your task is to predict an anomaly in F deg relative to 1981-2010 normals. We report on the anomalies pretty much every day after about the first week to ten days, so this is a good place to hang out to check how trends are developing even if you're not into the forecasting. On occasion we have bonus questions, there's one ongoing contest about first snowfall dates (report will be transferred over to this thread early in January). I think I will throw one in with the February contest to predict max temps on Valentine's Day at these nine stations and maybe three others just for fun. Nothing added this month. Good luck, and happy holidays, best wishes for 2015 and good luck in the contest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 DCA __ -0.2 NYC __ -1.1 BOS ___ -0.8 ORD __ -1.8 ATL __ +1.2 IAH ___ +0.2. DEN __ -1.4 PHX __ -0.5 SEA__ +0.8 Final Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Below normal for much of the CONUS with the exception of East Coast & deep SE. -EPO, -PNA, neutral AO, +NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 DCA +2.7 NYC +3.3 BOS +2.7 ORD -2.2 ATL +3.4 IAH -0.8 DEN -3.2 PHX -2.2 SEA -2.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ___ DEN __ PHX __ SEA +4.6.....+4.5.....+3.8.....+5.9.....+3.3.....+1.2.....-0.5......-0.5.....-1.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 DCA +2.2 NYC +1.8 BOS +1.3 ORD + .9 ATL + 2.5 IAH +.2 DEN -.9 PHX -1.0 SEA -1.1 Edited at 830pm-eastern 1/2/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 DCA +0.6 NYC -1.1BOS -1.9ORD -2.1ATL +2.0IAH 0.0DEN +0.7PHX +2.0SEA +0.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 DCA: +0.2 NYC: -0.9 BOS: -1.8 ORD: -2.4 ATL: + 0.6 IAH: -0.4 DEN: -1.4 PHX: +0.5 SEA: -0.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 DCA: +1.2 NYC: +1.0 BOS: +0.5 ORD: 0.0 ATL: + 2.3 IAH: 0.0 DEN: -1.8 PHX: -0.2 SEA: -0.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 DCA -1.2 NYC -1.8BOS -2.0 ORD -2.5 ATL 1.3 IAH 0.4 DEN -1.0 PHX 0.2 SEA 0.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxallannj Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 DCA +1.5 NYC +1.4 BOS +0.8 ORD -2.5 ATL +2.8 IAH +0.5 DEN -1.8 PHX -0.5 SEA -1.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ___ DEN __ PHX __ SEA +1.3....+1.1......+0.9.........+1.8......+2.0......+0.3.........-1.2.......-0.9.......-1.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotty Lightning Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ___ DEN __ PHX __ SEA 0.5 1.0 0.7 -1.3 1.0 1.0 -2.0 -1.0 -0.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hockeyinc Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ___ DEN __ PHX __ SEA 6.0 4.5 4.0 2.0 3.5 2.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 -2.7 for all stations, not doing the western. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ___ DEN __ PHX __ SEA +1.3....+0.4......-0.2.........+0.6......+1.8......+1.0.........+1.2.......+0.8.......+2.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 DCA +2.8 NYC +1.6 BOS +1.4 ORD -1.8 ATL +2.9 IAH -0.5 DEN -1.8 PHX -2.8 SEA -1.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksammut Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ___ DEN __ PHX __ SEA +0.0___-0.8___-1.3____-4.9___+0.8___-2.1___-1.3____-0.7___-0.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 DCA....NYC...BOS.... ...ORD...ATL...IAH... ...DEN...PHX...SEA +1.8...+0.9...+1.1... ...+3.2...+2.0...+1.5... ...+1.7...-0.3...+1.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 DCA +1.7 NYC +0.6 BOS -1.0 ORD -2.2 ATL +1.3 IAH -0.4 DEN -2.8 PHX -2.5 SEA -1.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 DCA -1.2 NYC -1.8BOS -2.0 ORD -2.5 ATL 1.3 IAH 0.4 DEN -1.0 PHX 0.2 SEA 0.5 DCA +1.8 NYC+ 1.4 BOS+ 0.9 ORD+ 1.0 ATL+ +2.4 IAH +1.4 DEN +1.0 PHX +1.2 Sea +1.4 FINAL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ___ DEN __ PHX __ SEA 0.3 0.8 0.6 -1.2 1.1 1.2 -2.1 -1.1 -0.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ___ DEN __ PHX __ SEA 0.7 0.5 0.1 -0.9 1.4 1.4 -1.6 -1.6 0.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 DCA _____NYC____BOS____ORD____ATL_____IAH________DEN_____PHX_____SEA -0.4 _____-0.8 ___-1.3 ___ -2.2 ___-0.6 ____-2.0 _______-1.9 ____+1.8 ____+1.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 DCA -1.9 NYC -2.3 BOS -2.7 ORD -3.2 ATL -0.4 IAH -0.4 DEN -2.2 PHX +0.8 SEA +0.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 2, 2015 Author Share Posted January 2, 2015 Well I (ahem) got my head together ... UncleW playing the west this year, Tenman still not so sure about the land beyond ... welcome new entrants ... as I mentioned, very relaxed penalty structure for New Years, the clock only starts ticking at 06z tonight. DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA -3.5 __ -3.7 __ -3.3 _____ -5.7 __ -2.5 __ -1.0 ____ +2.5 __ -0.2 __ +1.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA -0.9 __ -0.5 __ -0.5 _____ -4.7 __ -0.4 __ -5.6 ____ -5.2 __ -1.1 __ -0.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA -2.1 __ -2.2 __ -2.0_____ -3.5 __ -1.5 __ -0.5 ____ +1.8 __ +1.5 __ +2.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 DCA _____ NYC _____ BOS ________ ORD _____ ATL _____ IAH ______ DEN _____ PHX _____ SEA -2.1 -0.4 -0.2 +2.0 -1.4 -1.8 +1.4 -1.2 -1.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 DCA +2.4 NYC +2.1 BOS + 2.0 ORD -1.0 ATL + 2.5 IAH -1.9 DEN +2.9 PHX +2.8 SEA +2.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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