deltadog03 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 how did the ENS look today? GEM, GFS and euro? euro control? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Is the Euro EPS just the ENS? I was under the impression that the EPS was just kind of a ENS Mean but just one run to represent it?The EPS control is the Euro OP run at a lower resolution, used to then run the ensemble suite. I think the term EPS is also used to describe the entire ensemble suite...that's probably a misuse of the term.Edit: I might be wrong on the term EPS. I was thinking it referred to the entire Euro model system, not just the ENS. Might be wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I was going to say the same thing. Over NA it's been terrible. Yeah I mean it depends on what you're looking at....mslp tracks, energy, 850mb, 500mb, ground temps, etc. Especially in your backyard. Not as simple as a model picking up a storm...maybe the GFS will rule in the next 10 day period who knows. Euro still looks better in most areas based on this direct comparison website over NA http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/ but I'm no met so I digress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 i agree with this its not like the euro cutting the low is wrong it's the fact the model itself is haveing trouble with the pattern! Arguing the physics of a model is denialisim 101. If the model cuts a low it's certainly possible if the depiction it shows with all the other features verifies, End of story. This line of thinking is anti science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Yeah I mean it depends on what you're looking at....mslp tracks, energy, 850mb, 500mb, ground temps, etc. Especially in your backyard. Not as simple as a model picking up a storm...maybe the GFS will rule in the next 10 day period who knows. Euro still looks better in most areas based on this direct comparison website over NA http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/ but I'm no met so I digress. Didn't JB and RMaue argue about this last week, Euro v/s GFS day 10. I need to dig it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 What is it about the Euro that made no sense? You could make the case that at 192, it is once again trying to dig energy into the SW. But I don't see any reason at all why the energy couldn't cut. We have no -NAO, no 50/50 and a PV way up in Canada. I don't see why it should stay suppressed, unless the pattern is completely wrong as shown (which it could be). We hear a lot through the winter about "no way this or that could cut", but there really has to be a reason for that. A big block with a 50/50 and strong confluence, pressing and not lifting would keep it suppressed. We often see these features lifting out, and if that's the case, then you bet things can cut. The GFS shows a pretty good depiction of a pattern where you wouldn't expect something to cut. Agree Cold Rain, good points. The modeled -NAO is looking like a big fail. On the other hand, the favorable western ridging looks like it will get us in the conversation as we start the new year. The 01/01 storm on the 12z GFS was the spitting image of the late Jan '14 storm...a weak wave riding up an arctic boundary that has pressed way south. The models have been quite inconsistent of late, including the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I think his point was he doesn't think the euro has the pattern right, and that cutting is wrong...I think* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Cold rain IMO the EURO could be right, but I am saying lets hold off, for now. It has been over amplifying the energy and has caused things to want to show them cutting. Yesterdays storm was prime example of how it was trying to be much stronger than it turned out. The KING is still the EURO, and it could be right..we could be looking at a cutter next weekend and for NYD..I fully agree with you. I am saying, until I See other things that strong, I won't go all in on it, because lately it has been all over the place and has over did the phasing of the streams. Can we all agree on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 BTW, is the 18z GFS trying to make this storm further south for Christmas eve and before? Almost looks like its snowing over N Texas at hour 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I don't think the two models are that far apart days 7-10. GFS is deeper with the trough and the Euro is lagging a little but both have the same idea.Actually I think the Euro trended toward the GFS a little today. Just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 GFS looks interesting around Jan 1st. The pattern starts to get into a position that could support a storm. will be fun to watch the pattern change over the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Cold rain IMO the EURO could be right, but I am saying lets hold off, for now. It has been over amplifying the energy and has caused things to want to show them cutting. Yesterdays storm was prime example of how it was trying to be much stronger than it turned out. The KING is still the EURO, and it could be right..we could be looking at a cutter next weekend and for NYD..I fully agree with you. I am saying, until I See other things that strong, I won't go all in on it, because lately it has been all over the place and has over did the phasing of the streams. Can we all agree on that? Totally. You're saying that the wound up solution is likely to be wrong because of the Euro's tendency to amp things up. I gotcha and I agree. Until we see agreement across the board inside 3 or 4 days, we won't know which is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I don't think the two models are that far apart days 7-10. GFS is deeper with the trough and the Euro is lagging a little but both have the same idea.Actually I think the Euro trended toward the GFS a little today. Just my opinion. How's the solar flux stuff and strat stuff coming along? Any good news? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Agree Cold Rain, good points. The modeled -NAO is looking like a big fail. On the other hand, the favorable western ridging looks like it will get us in the conversation as we start the new year. The 01/01 storm on the 12z GFS was the spitting image of the late Jan '14 storm...a weak wave riding up an arctic boundary that has pressed way south. The models have been quite inconsistent of late, including the ensembles. Agreed, the GEFS is a great look but the EPS doesn't agree, I don't know which one is right. If the EPS was showing what we wanted and the GEFS wasn't we would be all hugging the GEFS. Pretty big differences at day 9 with trough placement and the EPS doesn't budge east through the end of the run, it's been consistent with this. Oh yeah, with the blocking going poof there is a good chance the first half of the winter will average a +AO. I guess we do need that SSW for a -AO after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 How's the solar flux stuff and strat stuff coming along? Any good news? Borderline solar max conditions still,had a huge X-flare yesterday though.Just watching if it effects the -QBO or not. Zonal winds still forecasted to slow,think the PV will be under attack with the strong -EPO working on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 The EPS control is the Euro OP run at a lower resolution, used to then run the ensemble suite. I think the term EPS is also used to describe the entire ensemble suite...that's probably a misuse of the term. Edit: I might be wrong on the term EPS. I was thinking it referred to the entire Euro model system, not just the ENS. Might be wrong though. EPS stands for Ensemble Prediction System. The Integrated Forecast System (what we know as the Euro) has both a deterministic and an ensemble (the EPS) component. In the same way, the GFS ensembles are known as the GEFS (Global Ensemble Forecast System). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 bull, the facts are i don't hug one model! I look at what makes sense ? I must be right the eps has no cutting low an is much cooler looking over all . models have bad runs this one had one today !The cutting solution may or may not be right. My point is people are way to quick to say a model is wrong when it doesn't show the solution they want, a cutting low is a very real possibility. For some to say it's not possible are in denial. The Euro could have it nailed, the model obviously says the cutting solution is a possibility. Also try and use better English if you can, sometimes your posts are almost unreadable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Borderline solar max conditions still,had a huge X-flare yesterday though.Just watching if it effects the -QBO or not. Zonal winds still forecasted to slow,think the PV will be under attack with the strong -EPO working on it. Good deal. Thanks and please keep us posted since you're our resident expert! And thanks James for the EPS definition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Agreed, the GEFS is a great look but the EPS doesn't agree, I don't know which one is right. If the EPS was showing what we wanted and the GEFS wasn't we would be all hugging the GEFS. Pretty big differences at day 9 with trough placement and the EPS doesn't budge east through the end of the run, it's been consistent with this. Oh yeah, with the blocking going poof there is a good chance the first half of the winter will average a +AO. I guess we do need that SSW for a -AO after all. I'm pretty sure we could get a wintry storm with either of those maps, I'll take those looks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Agreed, the GEFS is a great look but the EPS doesn't agree, I don't know which one is right. If the EPS was showing what we wanted and the GEFS wasn't we would be all hugging the GEFS. Pretty big differences at day 9 with trough placement and the EPS doesn't budge east through the end of the run, it's been consistent with this. Oh yeah, with the blocking going poof there is a good chance the first half of the winter will average a +AO. I guess we do need that SSW for a -AO after all. That GEFS image looks like dry cold to me. The Euro is more conducive for actual winter storms, although it is just a bit too far west with the mean trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 That GEFS image looks like dry cold to me. The Euro is more conducive for actual winter storms, although it is just a bit too far west with the mean trough. I was going to say if you blend the GEFS and EPS you have something really good, IMO. But that is total wish casting by me.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 18z GFS has everything there for a big storm around New Years just doesn't quite come together just right. 18z not as cold as 12z...but still sticking to it's guns that the big cool down is coming in around 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 That GEFS image looks like dry cold to me. The Euro is more conducive for actual winter storms, although it is just a bit too far west with the mean trough. Yea again just look to Jan 2011....huge cold. So much that everything just went in the meat grinder and fizzled out in south FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 GFS looking good. Big H coming down and an active STJ undercutting the AK ridge. Not looking at individual s/w's but just the overall picture. It's what I want to see in this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 18z GFS is cold enough for snow in southern GA almost in Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 GFS looks interesting around Jan 1st. The pattern starts to get into a position that could support a storm. will be fun to watch the pattern change over the next week. That's the one I like The rain has started to run underneath, and some has made it up here, which is always the first tell for me. And it hasn't been 65 and rain...seldom is in winter. Follow the rain in winter, and the cold will come around, most times, I think. Rain every day, or three, usually finds some cold to play with, even if it's 36 and rain down here. (PS....Larry took climo over my 30 or 40 years of questionable memory about this...choosing to go with over 100 years of climo on the matter, lol. but one of these days I'll be right, and then I'll go na, na, nana na at him, and his wet/frozen climo ice cream And anyway, climo for around the 1st, in Ga. is propitious At least where I've been living. After Xmas day, the play begins in Ga. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 18z GFS PARA in the LR tonight looks about as ugly as it can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 18z GFS PARA in the LR tonight looks about as ugly as it can get. Knocks out the EPO ridge as fast as it can Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 18z GFS PARA in the LR tonight looks about as ugly as it can get. packbacker Posted 22 minutes ago 18z GFS is cold enough for snow in southern GA almost in Florida. Models, models, models ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 18z GFS PARA in the LR tonight looks about as ugly as it can get. Sweet. Glad all the modeling agrees with one another, as expected during a signficiant pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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