Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread II

[deltadog03]

The Euro may be more accurate inside 180 hours but its struggling mightily this year beyond that because of the active storm track.  It constantly is having its bias exposed of overdigging energy in the SW US, so its been too ridgy on the East coast because of it, I was just telling someone if you compare the Euro today at 168-180 to what it showed 3 days ago at 240 its night and day.

Agreed!!  PERFECT post, my friend.  I was thinking the same thing.  Its D7-10 forecast have been AWFUL, at times, this fall and winter so far this year.  I know the week 2 ensembles have been awful as well.

[GaWx]

Larry has said we don't need a strong storm , and actually need like a 1006 or so low along the gulf, so weak is good for miller A

 

 Weak GoM lows have by far been best for major SE Miller A winter storms. I'd even argue that phasing/strong lows reduce the chances of widespread Miller A major SN/IP. To me, stronger means more warming possibilities. If you don't want to "disturb" the cold from Arctic air, keep the low weak to moderate for best chances. See the 12Z GFS for example. Otherwise, how does one explain the following distribution of the lowest SLP in the GoM for major ATL (and much of the inland SE) SN/IP Miller A's since the late 1800's? As you can see, you can kick*ss with a 1017-20. Remember that there often is strong high pressure to the north. So, a 1010 GoM low is often stronger than it may seem. If the low is too strong, the Arctic high can't extend as far south. We in the SE (especially south of NC/TN) shouldn't imo be rooting for phased lows so much. I never root for them. The Storm of the Century was very unique and lots of that snow in ATL among other places was on the backside because it was too far north for wintry on the frontside.

 

In ascending order of SLP: median is 1008; only 3 of 32 sub 1000!

976: Storm of Century 1993

997

998

1000

1001

1002

1002

1003

1003

1003

1004

1005

1006

1007

1007

1008

1008

1009

1009

1010

1011

1011

1012

1012

1013

1017

1017

1017

1018

1018

1020

1020

[RONALD B]

What is it about the Euro that made no sense? You could make the case that at 192, it is once again trying to dig energy into the SW. But I don't see any reason at all why the energy couldn't cut. We have no -NAO, no 50/50 and a PV way up in Canada. I don't see why it should stay suppressed, unless the pattern is completely wrong as shown (which it could be).

We hear a lot through the winter about "no way this or that could cut", but there really has to be a reason for that. A big block with a 50/50 and strong confluence, pressing and not lifting would keep it suppressed. We often see these features lifting out, and if that's the case, then you bet things can cut. The GFS shows a pretty good depiction of a pattern where you wouldn't expect something to cut.

weel one reason it want cut? there was nice high just too the north of it !lows don't go thou hp 1029 it has no where too go with a pv too the north of it basicly the low is cutting into artic air with no se ridge ! just way i see it time will teel ?

[Pilotwx]

I like the direction this is going . Ridge pumping up out west, STJ cutting under it and the PJ buckling, supplying the colder air and the southeast ridge far enough out to the east that it can only help by pushing storms up the coast.

I think this gives everyone a shot , not everyone all at one time . But, sets the stage for multiple storms . Depending on the SE ridge relaxing allowing those in the southern areas to get snow or making a small come back to push storms north. The potential is there but will it happen?

[Cold Rain]

weel one reason it want cut? there was nice high just too the north of it !lows don't go thou hp 1029 it has no where too go with a pv too the north of it basicly the low is cutting into artic air with no se ridge ! just way i see it time will teel ?

I hear you, and highs to the north are nice. But there's nothing really anchoring in the high. It can move out as the storm comes in. This happens a whole lot. Like I said, the Euro may be wrong in how it sets the pattern up, but the way it's set up, IMO, the storm should have no problem cutting, if it winds up.

[tnweathernut]

weel one reason it want cut? there was nice high just too the north of it !lows don't go thou hp 1029 it has no where too go with a pv too the north of it basicly the low is cutting into artic air with no se ridge ! just way i see it time will teel ?

This is false. Lows can and do....on a regular basis, push highs around......especially when there is nothing to lock the high in place.

I have seen monster highs and single digit temps give way to rain and upper. 30's/40's just 24 hours later.

[GaWx]

This is false. Lows can and do....on a regular basis, push highs around......especially when there is nothing to lock the high in place.

I have seen monster highs and single digit temps give way to rain and upper. 30's/40's just 24 hours later.

 

 This is consistent with the idea that a weak low is generally much better than a strong low for a better chance at a further south track and therefore, better chances for widespread SE wintry precip. That's why I look for weak lows for the best Miller A opportunities.

[tnweathernut]

This is consistent with the idea that a weak low is generally much better than a strong low for a better chance at a further south track and therefore, better chances for widespread SE wintry precip. That's why I look for weak lows for the best Miller A opportunities.

No doubt, WAA is a killer in the southeast.

[superjames1992]

What is it about the Euro that made no sense? You could make the case that at 192, it is once again trying to dig energy into the SW. But I don't see any reason at all why the energy couldn't cut. We have no -NAO, no 50/50 and a PV way up in Canada. I don't see why it should stay suppressed, unless the pattern is completely wrong as shown (which it could be).

We hear a lot through the winter about "no way this or that could cut", but there really has to be a reason for that. A big block with a 50/50 and strong confluence, pressing and not lifting would keep it suppressed. We often see these features lifting out, and if that's the case, then you bet things can cut. The GFS shows a pretty good depiction of a pattern where you wouldn't expect something to cut.

We do hear a lot of "there's no way that could cut into that block!" every winter, and then it ends up cutting, anyways.

[RONALD B]

This is false. Lows can and do....on a regular basis, push highs around......especially when there is nothing to lock the high in place.

I have seen monster highs and single digit temps give way to rain and upper. 30's/40's just 24 hours later.

u also realize the euro model tries too phase every low it  has in the long run right ? what happen too the monster midwest low? fail euro ! every case is diffrent an this solution makes little sense for now !

[tnweathernut]

u also realize the euro model tries too phase every low it has in the long run right ? what happen too the monster midwest low fail euro ! every case is diffrent an this solution makes little sense for now !

Sure the Euro has a tendency to over amp systems at times, but that has nothing to do with saying a low can't go north simply because a high is sitting there.

[franklin NCwx]

I like phased bombs running up thru the coastal plain.

[RONALD B]

Sure the Euro has a tendency to over amp systems at times, but that has nothing to do with saying a low can't go north simply because a high is sitting there.

yeah maybe? for now am trusting other model's on the cold, maybe the ensembels can help us out here ?

[packbacker]

We still don't have the global ensembles agreeing where the cold is day 9+, the EPS still is insisting of dumping it in the west. Maybe by next weekend we will know whats going to happen on ny's.

[Cold Rain]

I like phased bombs running up thru the coastal plain.

[packbacker]

I don't ever remember this much disagreement with the EPS and GEFS, it's thousands of miles different with the trough day 9+. The EPS is the best model so you have to lean that way, don't you?

[tnweathernut]

yeah maybe? for now am trusting other model's on the cold, maybe the ensembels can help us out here ?

I have been leaning heavily on the ensembles, not trusting any of the OP runs past days 3/4. I think we are headed in a great direction and should have an opportunity or two b/w Dec 28th and Jan 10th.

Where we go from there is anyone's guess.....

[burgertime]

I think the Euro is perfectly reasonable with it's look....but I agree with others that it's been all over the place in the LR. GFS and GEFS have been consistent in the long range.  We shall see who is right but so far GFS is looking like it has the hot hand. 

[deltadog03]

New forecast video is up online.  Please tell me what you all think.  We talk about the SVR threat, the storm potential for next weekend and a look at the New Years day storm potential.  Let me throw this out there, I do think the euro is doing a good job, just like the GFS in the medium range.  I actually think the GFS is doing a better job from D7-14.  EURO really struggling in that range.  Its over amping stuff/over phasing and pushing in too far SW.  Please continue to share the video, page and please hit the invite button on the left of may Facebook page to invite your friends to like my page as well. keep growing the page. Thank y'all!!

 

https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons

[franklin NCwx]

We still don't have the global ensembles agreeing where the cold is day 9+, the EPS still is insisting of dumping it in the west. Maybe by next weekend we will know whats going to happen on ny's.

where are you getting the eps? Weatherbell won't update.

[packbacker]

where are you getting the eps? Weatherbell won't update.

WxModels app which pulls from SV.

[RONALD B]

New forecast video is up online.  Please tell me what you all think.  We talk about the SVR threat, the storm potential for next weekend and a look at the New Years day storm potential.  Let me throw this out there, I do think the euro is doing a good job, just like the GFS in the medium range.  I actually think the GFS is doing a better job from D7-14.  EURO really struggling in that range.  Its over amping stuff/over phasing and pushing in too far SW.  Please continue to share the video, page and please hit the invite button on the left of may Facebook page to invite your friends to like my page as well. keep growing the page. Thank y'all!!

 

https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons

i agree with this its not like the euro cutting the low is wrong it's the fact the model itself is haveing trouble with the pattern!

[Jon]

Lately, Euro verification still better than most at D6, D8, and D10...so still king IMO, you can't really beat that score at day 8 (I think)

 

...but obviously no means of perfect verification system, but it's still the model I trust in before I go riding some train unless it's spitting out a look I know won't happen, in that case you have to make your own judgements, which I see Chris is doing. I agree though, Euro has sucked with a lot of teleconnections while other models have been better it seems, but it's ruling the NH at 500mb and mslp which are similar scores.

[SnowGoose69]

Lately, Euro verification still better than most at D6, D8, and D10...so still king IMO, you can't really beat that score at day 8 (I think)

 

...but obviously no means of perfect verification system, but it's still the model I trust in before I go riding some train unless it's spitting out a look I know won't happen, in that case you have to make your own judgements, which I see Chris is doing. I agree though, Euro has sucked with a lot of teleconnections while other models have been better it seems, but it's ruling the NH at 500mb and mslp which are similar scores.

 

The problem is that is an average over a big area...I'd bet big bucks that if you drew a line between Washington state and Minnesota the GFS has been destroying the Euro in that region of the country At day 8-10.

[Jon]

The problem is that is an average over a big area...I'd bet big bucks that if you drew a line between Washington state and Minnesota the GFS has been destroying the Euro in that region of the country At day 8-10.

yeah agreed, like I said no means a perfect system and you just have to use your own brain when you're looking at LR output...that's why mets exist eh?

[tnweathernut]

The problem is that is an average over a big area...I'd bet big bucks that if you drew a line between Washington state and Minnesota the GFS has been destroying the Euro in that region of the country At day 8-10.

I was going to say the same thing. Over NA it's been terrible.

[burgertime]

WxModels app which pulls from SV.

 

Is the Euro EPS just the ENS? I was under the impression that the EPS was just kind of a ENS Mean but just one run to represent it? 

[Met1985]

The problem is that is an average over a big area...I'd bet big bucks that if you drew a line between Washington state and Minnesota the GFS has been destroying the Euro in that region of the country At day 8-10.

Absolutely spot on. We just saw the Euro cave big time to this weekends storm down here to the GFS. Which most were honking about because yeah know the Euro is the king. Both the models have had there fair share of big bust recently.

[packbacker]

Is the Euro EPS just the ENS? I was under the impression that the EPS was just kind of a ENS Mean but just one run to represent it?

Yes, the EPS is Euro ENS.

[deltadog03]

I agree the euro is still the trendsetter and king..no doubt, those scores are great, but as SG was saying...its been struggling hardcore.  Think about todays/yesterdays system...EURO blew up for runs, and MEH...Christmas storm they both blew up.. EURO more so than GFS and its trending not as strong.  My guess is euro is too strong with the energy around therefore it cuts.