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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread II


JoshM

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Here's some more seasonal stuff

 

International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), USA (Columbia.edu)

u34EXdp.png

 

More telling, check out the D-J-F precip...I know Dec Is over but March precip could be hampering the output for J-F-M. Up to your own interpretation, but the cold is there. Look at the above average temps over AK coast and the West Coast, and the above average temps over Greenland, some pretty high probabilities there.

 

and I've spoken on the Beijing Climate Center seasonal already but just check out this evolution from 3 months lead time to currently....these are for J-F-M, IMO the newest run is figuring out some kind of -NAO (west based) possibly setting up and being consistant, but to have that kind of mean for a seasonal in that location is a good thing...notice the other leads didn't have it, I find it hard to ignore and we'll see what future runs of this model do.

meOEBYS.png

 

This is the first time I've looked at seasonals and the super long range outside of the JMA and CFS, Euro weeklies, etc. But I like the way these two models look (just found the columbia one today)

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Great talk this morning everyone! Burger, I agree. I think the jan 1st threat is more real now as well. I still think we have to watch the euro today, well duh chris, we always do..LOL I Want to see if it has that weak wave riding on the arctic/polar front for next Sunday. I love where this pattern is going, the GFS looks AMAZING this run. Even at hour 384, its still got a very nice ridge over alaska and a NAO trying to go NEG to trap the 50/50 low.

Larry has said we don't need a strong storm , and actually need like a 1006 or so low along the gulf, so weak is good for miller A
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Here's some more seasonal stuff

 

International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), USA (Columbia.edu)

 

 

More telling, check out the D-J-F precip...I know Dec Is over but March precip could be hampering the output for J-F-M. Up to your own interpretation, but the cold is there. Look at the above average temps over AK coast and the West Coast, and the above average temps over Greenland, some pretty high probabilities there.

 

and I've spoken on the Beijing Climate Center seasonal already but just check out this evolution from 3 months lead time to currently....these are for J-F-M, IMO the newest run is figuring out some kind of -NAO (west based) possibly setting up and being consistant, but to have that kind of mean for a seasonal in that location is a good thing...notice the other leads didn't have it, I find it hard to ignore and we'll see what future runs of this model do.

 

 

This is the first time I've looked at seasonals and the super long range outside of the JMA and CFS, Euro weeklies, etc. But I like the way these two models look (just found the columbia one today)

 

Thanks Jon!  The chinese model is text book setup for us, and the IRI model looks great too.

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IMO the CMC looks like it may try to have something next Sunday.  We shall see.  The doc will be running with in the hour...Guess its all eyes on that?  LOL

 

After last night's surprise Eastern NC snow? You bet, lol. TropicalTidbits.com is running CMC slowly, so I can't see what next weekend got yet but that's the time frame Euro got the storm at.

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Thanks Jon!  The chinese model is text book setup for us, and the IRI model looks great too.

No problem and I agree! The trend in the GFS as of yesterday evening is very encouraging, may the hardcore model watching commence.

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Well, I guess its a wrap on this on for Christmas forecast it appears.  The trends have been further south and the upper low NOT anchored over IA or MN.  In fact, if the 2m temps can be a little colder, this puts W and C TN in play for maybe a nice flurry storm, or an inch of snow maybe.  Here comes the 2nd piece diving southeast out of the rockies!

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I know the weather can piss you off quicker than you can blink many times, but it sure is fun to see things changing.  A couple of days ago, we had the Christmas storm this HUGE ball of energy that was going to rotate down through then up into the lakes...NOW, it looks like its going to rotate down through and out.  The next energy is coming in over the rockies and midwest after it, and not the west coast and slowly working east..LOL

 

It got to me bad last night.  I'm loving the cold showing up along with some storm chances.  It's been a common thought among many that the 28-1st was a good shot at something and we could finally be seeing something.

 

Jburns said it best earlier about the models in chaos because something abnormal may be coming.

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If that energy out west could dig a little more this would probably be a much better look. For now it looks like cold chasing rain in the Carolinas but some in the eastern sections could switch over. Mountains looked good. 

 

Your NYE/NY storm has a much better chance, hopefully this day 7 event does occur even if we don't get snow and acts like a 50/50 for the day 10 potential.  

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If that energy out west could dig a little more this would probably be a much better look. For now it looks like cold chasing rain in the Carolinas but some in the eastern sections could switch over. Mountains looked good. 

 

Yep, surface temps were marginal but a good low track for the high mountains.  Would love to see that low pressure move off the coast but there is a lot of time for that track to change.  They Euro has given me +40" of fantasy snow though this year so I am taking what it says with a big grain of salt lol.

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Well, the euro doesn't get it done for the NYD storm  I actually like the trends of both of the models.  IMO the EURO looks to slow to evolve the pattern.  IMO that NYD storm should not CUT**  I actually prefer the GFS' evolution of the pattern vs the euro. 

 

The Euro may be more accurate inside 180 hours but its struggling mightily this year beyond that because of the active storm track.  It constantly is having its bias exposed of overdigging energy in the SW US, so its been too ridgy on the East coast because of it, I was just telling someone if you compare the Euro today at 168-180 to what it showed 3 days ago at 240 its night and day.

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The Euro may be more accurate inside 180 hours but its struggling mightily this year beyond that because of the active storm track.  It constantly is having its bias exposed of overdigging energy in the SW US, so its been too ridgy on the East coast because of it, I was just telling someone if you compare the Euro today at 168-180 to what it showed 3 days ago at 240 its night and day.

yup the euro made zero sense too me. but we will see soon enough? i think the gefs has kicked butt over it lately !

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What is it about the Euro that made no sense? You could make the case that at 192, it is once again trying to dig energy into the SW. But I don't see any reason at all why the energy couldn't cut. We have no -NAO, no 50/50 and a PV way up in Canada. I don't see why it should stay suppressed, unless the pattern is completely wrong as shown (which it could be).

We hear a lot through the winter about "no way this or that could cut", but there really has to be a reason for that. A big block with a 50/50 and strong confluence, pressing and not lifting would keep it suppressed. We often see these features lifting out, and if that's the case, then you bet things can cut. The GFS shows a pretty good depiction of a pattern where you wouldn't expect something to cut.

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