Jon Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Here's some more seasonal stuff International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), USA (Columbia.edu) More telling, check out the D-J-F precip...I know Dec Is over but March precip could be hampering the output for J-F-M. Up to your own interpretation, but the cold is there. Look at the above average temps over AK coast and the West Coast, and the above average temps over Greenland, some pretty high probabilities there. and I've spoken on the Beijing Climate Center seasonal already but just check out this evolution from 3 months lead time to currently....these are for J-F-M, IMO the newest run is figuring out some kind of -NAO (west based) possibly setting up and being consistant, but to have that kind of mean for a seasonal in that location is a good thing...notice the other leads didn't have it, I find it hard to ignore and we'll see what future runs of this model do. This is the first time I've looked at seasonals and the super long range outside of the JMA and CFS, Euro weeklies, etc. But I like the way these two models look (just found the columbia one today) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Here is a look at Hr 216 on the 12z GFS.. 500mb PV moving near Great Lakes: Surface maps @hr216 Southern stream looks strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Great talk this morning everyone! Burger, I agree. I think the jan 1st threat is more real now as well. I still think we have to watch the euro today, well duh chris, we always do..LOL I Want to see if it has that weak wave riding on the arctic/polar front for next Sunday. I love where this pattern is going, the GFS looks AMAZING this run. Even at hour 384, its still got a very nice ridge over alaska and a NAO trying to go NEG to trap the 50/50 low.Larry has said we don't need a strong storm , and actually need like a 1006 or so low along the gulf, so weak is good for miller A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 12z CMC lines up nicely with the GFS, still think anything before NYE/NY is going to be tough but right at NY's it has a chance. The 12z CMC does have a stronger NAO than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Here's some more seasonal stuff International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), USA (Columbia.edu) More telling, check out the D-J-F precip...I know Dec Is over but March precip could be hampering the output for J-F-M. Up to your own interpretation, but the cold is there. Look at the above average temps over AK coast and the West Coast, and the above average temps over Greenland, some pretty high probabilities there. and I've spoken on the Beijing Climate Center seasonal already but just check out this evolution from 3 months lead time to currently....these are for J-F-M, IMO the newest run is figuring out some kind of -NAO (west based) possibly setting up and being consistant, but to have that kind of mean for a seasonal in that location is a good thing...notice the other leads didn't have it, I find it hard to ignore and we'll see what future runs of this model do. This is the first time I've looked at seasonals and the super long range outside of the JMA and CFS, Euro weeklies, etc. But I like the way these two models look (just found the columbia one today) Thanks Jon! The chinese model is text book setup for us, and the IRI model looks great too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 IMO the CMC looks like it may try to have something next Sunday. We shall see. The doc will be running with in the hour...Guess its all eyes on that? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 IMO the CMC looks like it may try to have something next Sunday. We shall see. The doc will be running with in the hour...Guess its all eyes on that? LOL After last night's surprise Eastern NC snow? You bet, lol. TropicalTidbits.com is running CMC slowly, so I can't see what next weekend got yet but that's the time frame Euro got the storm at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Thanks Jon! The chinese model is text book setup for us, and the IRI model looks great too. No problem and I agree! The trend in the GFS as of yesterday evening is very encouraging, may the hardcore model watching commence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RONALD B Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 the gefs has a system on the 30th not a strong single but its there ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 hmmm...interesting euro...interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Gfs looking way better in the medium range with the PV dropping south, -EPO, -NAO. Long duration cold. No -NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Well, I guess its a wrap on this on for Christmas forecast it appears. The trends have been further south and the upper low NOT anchored over IA or MN. In fact, if the 2m temps can be a little colder, this puts W and C TN in play for maybe a nice flurry storm, or an inch of snow maybe. Here comes the 2nd piece diving southeast out of the rockies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 The EURO at hour 126 might be on the move toward making something happen next weekend. aka like last nights run...We shall see...has energy moving SSE out of UTAH/NEVADA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I know the weather can piss you off quicker than you can blink many times, but it sure is fun to see things changing. A couple of days ago, we had the Christmas storm this HUGE ball of energy that was going to rotate down through then up into the lakes...NOW, it looks like its going to rotate down through and out. The next energy is coming in over the rockies and midwest after it, and not the west coast and slowly working east..LOL It got to me bad last night. I'm loving the cold showing up along with some storm chances. It's been a common thought among many that the 28-1st was a good shot at something and we could finally be seeing something. Jburns said it best earlier about the models in chaos because something abnormal may be coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 The EURO at hour 126 might be on the move toward making something happen next weekend. aka like last nights run...We shall see...has energy moving SSE out of UTAH/NEVADA It looks really close but don't think it's gonna happen this go round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 @174 the Euro is very close to a big storm for the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 If that energy out west could dig a little more this would probably be a much better look. For now it looks like cold chasing rain in the Carolinas but some in the eastern sections could switch over. Mountains looked good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 If that energy out west could dig a little more this would probably be a much better look. For now it looks like cold chasing rain in the Carolinas but some in the eastern sections could switch over. Mountains looked good. Your NYE/NY storm has a much better chance, hopefully this day 7 event does occur even if we don't get snow and acts like a 50/50 for the day 10 potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 If that energy out west could dig a little more this would probably be a much better look. For now it looks like cold chasing rain in the Carolinas but some in the eastern sections could switch over. Mountains looked good. Yep, surface temps were marginal but a good low track for the high mountains. Would love to see that low pressure move off the coast but there is a lot of time for that track to change. They Euro has given me +40" of fantasy snow though this year so I am taking what it says with a big grain of salt lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Agreed Burger!! Its VERY close to a wonderful solution, and it wouldn't surprise me if this trends better. ie further south Just like the Christmas storm, but don't look now...here comes the energy for the NYD storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Yall have to admit...loooooving the trends tho?? Looks cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Interestingly enough, 12z ECMWF look like it's swinging the trough sharper with more southerly energy than 0z at least for New Year storm. Trough on 6z December 30th look very tight. EDIT: Yeah, trough is deeper this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Euro - No blocking FTL for Burgers storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RONALD B Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Too me it makes no sense? the pv too the north should be a block of some kind? u just can't have a runner going towards a pv that is nuts too me? the euro will prob go towards the gefs ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Well, the euro doesn't get it done for the NYD storm I actually like the trends of both of the models. IMO the EURO looks to slow to evolve the pattern. IMO that NYD storm should not CUT** I actually prefer the GFS' evolution of the pattern vs the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Euro - No blocking FTL for Burgers storm.Just have to rely on perfect timing, like 95% of our winter storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Well, the euro doesn't get it done for the NYD storm I actually like the trends of both of the models. IMO the EURO looks to slow to evolve the pattern. IMO that NYD storm should not CUT** I actually prefer the GFS' evolution of the pattern vs the euro. The Euro may be more accurate inside 180 hours but its struggling mightily this year beyond that because of the active storm track. It constantly is having its bias exposed of overdigging energy in the SW US, so its been too ridgy on the East coast because of it, I was just telling someone if you compare the Euro today at 168-180 to what it showed 3 days ago at 240 its night and day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Just have to rely on perfect timing, like 95% of our winter storms. Especially that 50/50 low. We need it closer to Canada at time of storm, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RONALD B Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 The Euro may be more accurate inside 180 hours but its struggling mightily this year beyond that because of the active storm track. It constantly is having its bias exposed of overdigging energy in the SW US, so its been too ridgy on the East coast because of it, I was just telling someone if you compare the Euro today at 168-180 to what it showed 3 days ago at 240 its night and day. yup the euro made zero sense too me. but we will see soon enough? i think the gefs has kicked butt over it lately ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 What is it about the Euro that made no sense? You could make the case that at 192, it is once again trying to dig energy into the SW. But I don't see any reason at all why the energy couldn't cut. We have no -NAO, no 50/50 and a PV way up in Canada. I don't see why it should stay suppressed, unless the pattern is completely wrong as shown (which it could be). We hear a lot through the winter about "no way this or that could cut", but there really has to be a reason for that. A big block with a 50/50 and strong confluence, pressing and not lifting would keep it suppressed. We often see these features lifting out, and if that's the case, then you bet things can cut. The GFS shows a pretty good depiction of a pattern where you wouldn't expect something to cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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