BIG FROSTY Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Would anyone like to make a guess as to the coldest MJO phase for ATL since 1975 in January? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 2 Big Frosty, No, it isn't 2. Try again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Would anyone like to make a guess as to the coldest MJO phase for ATL since 1975 in January? I'd go w/ phase 8 on this one, strong Aleutian trough, maximum pacific jet extension= +PNA/-EPO, as a whole, the pattern appears to dictate that incoming air has more arctic origin while at the same time holding it's Pacific influence... For El Ninos, I'd go w/ phase 1... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I'd go w/ phase 8 on this one, strong Aleutian trough, maximum pacific jet extension= +PNA/-EPO, as a whole, the pattern appears to dictate that incoming air has more arctic origin while at the same time holding it's Pacific influence... For El Ninos, I'd go w/ phase 1... Webber, This is not the answer I'm looking for. Guess again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Webber, This is not the answer I'm looking for. Guess again? The elusive phase 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Day ten euro disasters are about as funny as day 11-12 gfs ice storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I don't know about anyone else but Im getting tired of the ensembles flipping around every 2-3 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Webber, This is not the answer I'm looking for. Guess again? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Would anyone like to make a guess as to the coldest MJO phase for ATL since 1975 in January?cod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 3.141toomanynumbersmessedwithformat:P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 No, Burns, I think you guessed the widest phase lmao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 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Looks like you took pi to 8198 decimal places, so only an infinite number of decimal places to go! (Looks like it also destroyed this page's formatting, LOL) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Phase 6! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Looks like you took pi to 8198 decimal places, so only an infinite number of decimal places to go! (Looks like it also destroyed this page's formatting, LOL) Formatting is fine on mobile. But my thumb just fell off from all the scrolling! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Can't take the suspense, lol, so I'm calculating the data for myself & directly comparing the VPM & RMM MJO daily January 1990-2012 data... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 There is a winner and it isn't pi lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 OK, drumroll..................the coldest MJO phase is a surprise to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 OK, drumroll..................the coldest MJO phase is a surprise to me.The real winner is whoever gets us to the next page of this thread!Edit: Winner!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 cod Thanks for all of the guesses! We have a winner, Franklin's COD! When I finish compiling my numbers, I'll present 1-8 and the COD for comparison. Technically, the COD is lower amplitude of the 8 phases but I consider it its own animal. So, this begs the Q: why would the COD be the coldest? Webber? Anyone? I never would have guessed this before I analyzed it because I've never heard anyone say that the COD was the coldest in Jan (at least in ATL and I assume in the SE US as a whole)(and quite possibly also in Dec/Feb though that research has yet to have been done in detail). So, from now on, I'm not rooting for 7 or 8 or 1 or 2. I'm rooting for COD at least in Jan....seriously! COD is the sleeper that hardly any of us knew! Edit: By the way, all six of ATL's major ZR's since 1975 have been when the MJO was in the COD. Now it makes more sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 There is a winner and it isn't pi lol. pi has stood me well over the years. I got an A- in HS geometry by answering pi to every problem I couldn't do, and there were a lot of them. I figured it was worth a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Formatting is fine on mobile. But my thumb just fell off from all the scrolling!I memorized Pi to the 30th or so digit once for fun. Good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I memorized Pi to the 30th or so digit once for fun. Good times. Obviously sometime well before you took your avatar picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Thanks for all of the guesses! We have a winner, Franklin's COD! When I finish compiling my numbers, I'll present 1-8 and the COD for comparison. Technically, the COD is lower amplitude of the 8 phases but I consider it its own animal. So, this begs the Q: why would the COD be the coldest? Webber? Anyone? I never would have guessed this before I analyzed it because I've never heard anyone say that the COD was the coldest in Jan (at least in ATL and I assume in the SE US as a whole)(and quite possibly also in Dec/Feb though that research has yet to have been done in detail). So, from now on, I'm not rooting for 7 or 8 or 1 or 2. I'm rooting for COD at least in Jan....seriously! COD is the sleeper that hardly any of us knew! Edit: By the way, all six of ATL's major ZR's since 1974 have been when the MJO was in the COD. Now it makes more sense. I knew there was a catch to this... I know the VPM index however tends to spend significantly less time in the COD than RMM, which is one reason why I'm looking into the data right now... i would like to do more cities in the southeast than just Atlanta, but that's a project I'll save for another time, there's plenty, far more pressing matters I have in front of me. Like for instance NC Winter Storm VP research or even calculating the monthly, tri-monthly mean, & it's change over time (since 1950) with variables like 10.7cm Solar Flux, Total Solar Irradiance, Neutron Count (proxy for cosmic ray flux), sunspot number, AP index, etc, and a wide variety of other telconnections & miscellaneous items that I've put into a massive spreadsheet, which I hope to readily derive analogs from & pick up on certain conditions I may miss out on by visual, or relatively more simplistic analysis... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 This is true on the northside, where the last major ZR was in Dec. of 2005. However, the southside/eastside just had a big ZR 2/12/2014. Yep. When we do finally get one up here, it's gonna do a lot of damage. The trees have not been forcibly "pruned" in nearly a decade now. There will be a lot of roads closed and a lot of power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Well the 18z went from Ice to snow...so that's good I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Hey, I know we are talking about medium to longer range, but the I-40 corridor running through OK, AR and TN could see some ZR by Friday am, what yall thinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 What's the next step up after snow? Figure we want to bank as much as possible when the inevitable "warming" starts Well the 18z went from Ice to snow...so that's good I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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