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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread II


JoshM

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Would anyone like to make a guess as to the coldest MJO phase for ATL since 1975 in January?

 

I'd go w/ phase 8 on this one, strong Aleutian trough, maximum pacific jet extension= +PNA/-EPO, as a whole, the pattern appears to dictate that incoming air has more arctic origin while at the same time holding it's Pacific influence... For El Ninos, I'd go w/ phase 1...

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I'd go w/ phase 8 on this one, strong Aleutian trough, maximum pacific jet extension= +PNA/-EPO, as a whole, the pattern appears to dictate that incoming air has more arctic origin while at the same time holding it's Pacific influence... For El Ninos, I'd go w/ phase 1...

 

Webber,

 This is not the answer I'm looking for. Guess again?

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pi.png

 

Looks like you took pi to 8198 decimal places, so only an infinite number of decimal places to go!

 

(Looks like it also destroyed this page's formatting, LOL)

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cod

 

Thanks for all of the guesses!

 

 We have a winner, Franklin's COD! When I finish compiling my numbers, I'll present 1-8 and the COD for comparison. Technically, the COD is lower amplitude of the 8 phases but I consider it its own animal.

So, this begs the Q: why would the COD be the coldest? Webber? Anyone? I never would have guessed this before I analyzed it because I've never heard anyone say that the COD was the coldest in Jan (at least in ATL and I assume in the SE US as a whole)(and quite possibly also in Dec/Feb though that research has yet to have been done in detail).

So, from now on, I'm not rooting for 7 or 8 or 1 or 2. I'm rooting for COD at least in Jan....seriously! COD is the sleeper that hardly any of us knew!      

 

 

 

Edit: By the way, all six of ATL's major ZR's since 1975 have been when the MJO was in the COD. Now it makes more sense.

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Thanks for all of the guesses!

 

 We have a winner, Franklin's COD! When I finish compiling my numbers, I'll present 1-8 and the COD for comparison. Technically, the COD is lower amplitude of the 8 phases but I consider it its own animal.

So, this begs the Q: why would the COD be the coldest? Webber? Anyone? I never would have guessed this before I analyzed it because I've never heard anyone say that the COD was the coldest in Jan (at least in ATL and I assume in the SE US as a whole)(and quite possibly also in Dec/Feb though that research has yet to have been done in detail).

So, from now on, I'm not rooting for 7 or 8 or 1 or 2. I'm rooting for COD at least in Jan....seriously! COD is the sleeper that hardly any of us knew!      

 

 

 

Edit: By the way, all six of ATL's major ZR's since 1974 have been when the MJO was in the COD. Now it makes more sense.

 

 

I knew there was a catch to this... :) I know the VPM index however tends to spend significantly less time in the COD than RMM, which is one reason why I'm looking into the data right now... i would like to do more cities in the southeast than just Atlanta, but that's a project I'll save for another time, there's plenty, far more pressing matters I have in front of me. Like for instance NC Winter Storm VP research or even calculating the monthly, tri-monthly mean, & it's change over time (since 1950) with variables like 10.7cm Solar Flux, Total Solar Irradiance, Neutron Count (proxy for cosmic ray flux), sunspot number, AP index, etc, and a wide variety of other telconnections & miscellaneous items that I've put into a massive spreadsheet, which I hope to readily derive analogs from & pick up on certain conditions I may miss out on by visual, or relatively more simplistic analysis...

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This is true on the northside, where the last major ZR was in Dec. of 2005. However, the southside/eastside just had a big ZR 2/12/2014.

 

Yep.

 

When we do finally get one up here, it's gonna do a lot of damage.  The trees have not been forcibly "pruned" in nearly a decade now.  There will be a lot of roads closed and a lot of power outages.

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