max100 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 The irony is this will probably happen in some sort of fashion here. It's been almost a decade since we've had a significant ice storm. Yes, ATL is way overdue...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Ill gladly take sleet i hate ice. We are overdue on a major zr like others have said it has bein 02 since most have seen significant icing. But hopefully that dosent verify much rather have cold rain. Im sure the models will do several 180s by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 tell me about it lol!!Too bad it's 10+ days away! But, it does have a sleety look to it and we have has a storm show up at around 10 days and actually come to fruition. As has been stated, with a very cold Canada, it's not hard to get some of that to slide down the apps.! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Too bad it's 10+ days away! But, it does have a sleety look to it and we have has a storm show up at around 10 days and actually come to fruition. As has been stated, with a very cold Canada, it's not hard to get some of that to slide down the apps.! The ice/mixed bag has been on the models in this time-frame off and on for a couple days now. Especially the GFS/Para. Looking like there may be a strong high, I'd be more worried about getting the system as shown though. Signal is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 It's actually not rare nor unusual whatsoever to have a -AO averaged for all 3 months of meteorological winter (DJF). It has happened 21 times since 1950 (~30-35% of the time or about once every 3 years)... including 1950-51, 1952-53, 1955-56, 1959-60, 1962-63, 1964-65, 1967-68, 1968-69, 1969-70, 1970-71, 1976-77, 1977-78, 1978-79, 1980-81,1985-86, 1993-94, 1997-98, 2000-01, 2005-06, 2009-10, & 2012-13 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table I should have been more specific. I meant meaningful as in -.75sd or lower each month. It's obviously much easier to go 2 months. Do you think Jan will average negative? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I think the pattern def favors this. Whether this will be the event that leads to it or something later, the recurrent HP's and cold air supply over southern Canada will eventually time these STJ systems right at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I should have been more specific. I meant meaningful as in -.75sd or lower each month. It's obviously much easier to go 2 months. Do you think Jan will average negative? If this is right, it's gonna take some work: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I think the pattern def favors this. Whether this will be the event that leads to it or something later, the recurrent HP's and cold air supply over southern Canada will eventually time these STJ systems right at some point. Agree. The wedges are going to end up being stronger/anchored longer with colder air as we get further into Jan also. I expect by mid month, there are going to be multiple systems to track such as the fantasy ice just shown. Just too much going on to miss every single one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 The irony is this will probably happen in some sort of fashion here. It's been almost a decade since we've had a significant ice storm. This is true on the northside, where the last major ZR was in Dec. of 2005. However, the southside/eastside just had a big ZR 2/12/2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 If this is right, it's gonna take some work: ao_sprd2.gif Wow, +5, I don't know when the last time I saw a +AO that high in winter. Just quickly glancing, looks like our fab winters of 89, 90 and 93 had the AO hit +5. I should have been more specific. I meant meaningful as in -.75sd or lower each month. It's obviously much easier to go 2 months. Do you think Jan will average negative? I don't see that happening, not unless the AO falls off a cliff the last 10 days of the month (-3 or lower), which is really hard to imagine when you look at the CPC plot Cold Rain posted. Eventually this bloody ++PDO and SAI crap has to start doing it's magic...eventually...doesn't it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricanelonny Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I don't see that happening, not unless the AO falls off a cliff the last 10 days of the month (-3 or lower), which is really hard to imagine when you look at the CPC plot Cold Rain posted. Eventually this bloody ++PDO and SAI crap has to start doing it's magic...eventually...doesn't it... Is there a record for a +AO? I've never seen the projected AO to be that +. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 JUST FWIW RDU is 0.42 sleet, 0.66 ice....ouch Station ID: KRDU Lat: 35.87 Long: 78.78 GFS Model Run: 12Z 31DEC 2014 Clouds Bases and Tops are now aglHR Valid 2m Tmp 2m Dpt 10m Dir 10m Spd TPrcp CPrcp 1000-500 500mb 850mb 500mb MSLP TCC PRS WX Low Middle High Max Min Sfc Deg F Deg F deg kt in. in. Thk GPH Tmp Tmp mb % TEXT Clouds Clouds Clouds Tmp Tmp Vis 288 01/12 12Z 27 23 41 13 0.03 0.00 547 576 2.6 -14.7 1037.7 90 -PL 000SCT034 151BKN229 248BKN427 37 27 4.8300 01/13 00Z 27 24 43 12 0.39 0.00 547 575 1.6 -13.9 1035.5 90 -PL 023SCT093 119BKN226 246BKN429 30 24 2.4312 01/13 12Z 30 30 17 12 0.66 0.00 551 572 6.2 -13.8 1026.6 100 FZRN 003BKN109 111BKN228 262BKN388 30 26 0.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Is there a record for a +AO? I've never seen the projected AO to be that +. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml Highest I can find is +5.911 on 2/26/1990. There's a bunch of 5+ in Jan 89 and Feb 90 and a couple in Jan 93. The highest reading since 2000 is 1/5/05 @ +4.703 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Wow, +5, I don't know when the last time I saw a +AO that high in winter. Just quickly glancing, looks like our fab winters of 89, 90 and 93 had the AO hit +5. I don't see that happening, not unless the AO falls off a cliff the last 10 days of the month (-3 or lower), which is really hard to imagine when you look at the CPC plot Cold Rain posted. Eventually this bloody ++PDO and SAI crap has to start doing it's magic...eventually...doesn't it... No, because of the Anomolous Barents Sea Low. Totally cancels out ++PDO and SAI. Ask Cohen, he totally predicted it!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 No southeast ridge talk today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 No, because of the Anomolous Barents Sea Low. Totally cancels out ++PDO and SAI. Ask Cohen, he totally predicted it!! That's interesting for sure. The GEFS keeps lower heights over the Barent/Kara Seas longer (to day 12) but the GGEM-ENS and Euro-ENS get's rid of it by day 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 No southeast ridge talk today? SE ridge is the least of our worries right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 12z GFS totals for various cities off fantasy ice: KCAE .87 PL, .62 ZR KATL - Rain KCLT - .83 PL, .82 ZR KGSP - 1.69 ZR KMCN - Rain KRDU - .42 PL, .66 ZR KAVL - 1.52 ZR KRHP - .01 ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 No southeast ridge talk today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I should have been more specific. I meant meaningful as in -.75sd or lower each month. It's obviously much easier to go 2 months. Do you think Jan will average negative? That's more like it, certainly on the rare side of things, we've seen this happen 6 times since 1950, ~10% of the time w/ 1962-63, 1968-69, 1969-70, 1976-77, 1978-79, & 2009-10 able to accomplish this feat. Not as certain about that as I was several weeks ago, but I still think we'll squeeze this one out, again I do want to emphasize the Eastern hemisphere MJO pulse we're observing is directly related to the upcoming +AO spike & vis versa w/ yet another push into the Pacific that will reshuffle the Pacific AO pole (lower the heights over the Aleutians) & combined w/ help from the stratosphere, we'll see the AO take a dive later in the month. The twin SST tripoles in the North Atlantic & Pacific will catch up w/ us at some point this winter... No, because of the Anomolous Barents Sea Low. Totally cancels out ++PDO and SAI. Ask Cohen, he totally predicted it!! Lol... no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Wow, +5, I don't know when the last time I saw a +AO that high in winter. Just quickly glancing, looks like our fab winters of 89, 90 and 93 had the AO hit +5. I don't see that happening, not unless the AO falls off a cliff the last 10 days of the month (-3 or lower), which is really hard to imagine when you look at the CPC plot Cold Rain posted. Eventually this bloody ++PDO and SAI crap has to start doing it's magic...eventually...doesn't it... I'm actually pulling for a +6 AO. If we're going to suck, we might as well suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 It must be boring if we're talking about a clearly over amped fantasy system dumping ZR on us. That has about a 2% chance of actually verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Something interesting on the Euro is that it gets very cold but holds back that energy in the SW...if it can eject it quicker we would probably be in business for a a good overrunning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 It must be boring if we're talking about a clearly over amped fantasy system dumping ZR on us. That has about a 2% chance of actually verifying. You will take your fantasy ice storm and like it mister Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Pattern favors ice over snow in my opinion. Some may value it more than others lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I also think we (entire EC) have been unlucky to hit the worst case setup/scenario for the start of this winter. I am bored to tears, I know I got sucked in listening to JB, won't happen again. Not really, I have seen much worse, the east coast & the southeastern US as expected were relatively cooler than our neighbors out to the north & west... The +PDO, TNA/AMO, & ENSO index are (& will continue) to dampen out the SE US ridge & any warm signal that tries to manifest itself around here. January (as also evidenced by +Neutral & Weak El Nino composites) is when we'll be most vulnerable to influence from the SE ridge), February, not so much... The correspondence to cold here in the SE US generally grows stronger throughout the course of the winter under these low frequency indices w/ February by & large possessing the strongest correlations to cold. You can see the PDO & AMO destructively interfere w/ one another, more than likely however, based on the stronger correlation to the PDO, its intensity of late & some help from ENSO, it would likely overwhelm the AMO signal for warmth in January. Like the monthly ENSO composites, these composites below shouldn't be taken literally as a forecast, but merely serve as a good starting point to portend how the large-scale forcing may play out... The years w/ this +PDO/AMO/ENSO combo using the 1981-2010 base period appear to be consistent w/ what I've seen play out thus far, and show the temperature distribution & the regions of where the largest deviations from normal are most likely to occur... The general ideas remain relatively the same, a cold November, warmer December, especially towards the north & west, cooler nationwide in January, SE US ridge may be an issue at times in this month (if @ all), then in February the core of the cold shifts southeastward towards the SE US & eastern seaboard. IMO, based on everything I've seen, this is most likely to end up being our biggest month in terms of cold & possibly even wintry wx... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 It must be boring if we're talking about a clearly over amped fantasy system dumping ZR on us. That has about a 2% chance of actually verifying. Definitely. At least it's something showing up back and forth in some sort around the same time on different runs. Definitely need something to talk about other than the doom and gloom that's been going on lately. People are starting to get downright sour with the way things are turning out so far. There does seem to be a nice shot of cold coming soon though. Hopefully that will help out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I'm actually pulling for a +6 AO. If we're going to suck, we might as well suck. Well there is 1 member that hits 5.9, majority are largely positive, especially from 8-10th. By day 15 more than half the members are negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 It must be boring if we're talking about a clearly over amped fantasy system dumping ZR on us. That has about a 2% chance of actually verifying.Lol this is the first time we've seen over amps fantasy ice that actually amounts to those kind of totals, so you know us weenies will talk about it. It's better than cold suppression or SE ridge/SSWE/MJO etc talk. I want tangible stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Would anyone like to make a guess as to the coldest MJO phase for ATL since 1975 in January? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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