BIG FROSTY Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 New weather video is up online. Nothing really fancy going on, but I think there is potential, but for who? Let me know what y'all think https://www.facebook.com/41FirstAlert Great Diss. Chris, And I think you have a good argument for what may happen in a week or two, with all that high pressure and COLD up north, You just got to believe it spreads south and east at some point in the next couple weeks (Hopefully)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Hope burger is up. On phone and need a pbp, espeacilly for the para. Gonna see if it sticks to its guns. I need a model with a long range nose and quite frankly wouldn't mind one to be as trustworthy as king euro in the 3-5 day range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Great Diss. Chris, And I think you have a good argument for what may happen in a week or two, with all that high pressure and COLD up north, You just got to believe it spreads south and east at some point in the next couple weeks (Hopefully)? Thank you!! I really think we are going to have something very possible with that. Too much cold around, should have some interesting possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 verbatim, GFS is too warm, but there is a Very nice WEDGE and temps could be fun, depends on what happens in northern branch, but that could be fun and games and something to really watch and see if the models pick up on that and run with it. NEXT TUE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I am VERY interested to see where this could** lead. There is some interesting signs that we have talked about for sure over the last few days/runs. I really want to see what that energy does in the DEEP SW (old mexico) but, the GFS has been trying to have some over-running now for a run or two. FIRST** run showing actually something, so I Want to see more consistency and really want to see the EURO show something with it as well first. I think this ****COULD*** be on to something looking at the overall pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 GFS @180 showing some cold air in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Transient or not, we have a RIDGE *ON* the west coast at hr180! Looks chilly in the SE. PV in central/eastern Canada sagging down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 ZR for CR and Brick 1/12-13 per 0Z GFS fwiw (entertainment). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Fantasy GFS has a major ice storm for NC/SC in the LR, FWIW.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I am VERY interested to see where this could** lead. There is some interesting signs that we have talked about for sure over the last few days/runs. I really want to see what that energy does in the DEEP SW (old mexico) but, the GFS has been trying to have some over-running now for a run or two. FIRST** run showing actually something, so I Want to see more consistency and really want to see the EURO show something with it as well first. I think this ****COULD*** be on to something looking at the overall pattern. Chris, That is screaming overrunning ICE for maybe at least upper SE? You know how models usually under do 2m temps in this set up! I think you may very well be sniffing things out, let's see if models don't come around to your way of thinking soon..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Those were some big changes at H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesing for a chase Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Move that pesky GL low out and the models may have been interesting- the Para once again is much colder day 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 this is the most impressive look (airmass) I've seen from the GFS all winter long...at least showing something in the medium range. Its really good to see the OP now matching up with the para...if only we can get the King's OP on-line with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 CMC is agreeing with the GFS and Para. Will the mighty King agree, however? We shall see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Lol 00z PARA brings the hounds...loving it. Euro should be interesting tonight considering the trends...I have a feeling if the Euro is cold there's not much many can say about an SE ridge or warmth during this time period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 The Canadian looks just as cold. Definitely low teens for lows in NC and N SC/N GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 The Canadian looks just as cold. Definitely low teens for lows in NC and N SC/N GA. A couple degrees warmer in some areas, but overall a great look. KCAE example was 19F on Para 00z, 21F on GGEM 00z. Not that big of a deal If the Para ends up nailing this from earlier today and all the models continue following suite (besides the stubborn Euro for a cpl days), I'll have a new found respect for it. I had been ignoring it for the most part, but now it definitely is on my model watch list past truncation on the OP GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Euro much colder this run at 144hrs....my god that's some cold bottled up in Canada...this might be similar to the parallel simply by how much cold is actually able to be tapped....-36 850mb's east of the hudson and -30's NE of the lakes...widespread cold and not condensed like the 12z 168hrs: -35 850mb's south of the hudson, -30's in the CONUS at this point over the lakes. 144mb high over central US....to compare, 12z had 138mb high at 192hrs Ridge notably more west and taller this run as well, huge difference. Edit: comparing 192 from the 0z to 216 from the 12z, this run is an improvement but doesn't appear to give us results like the parallel, which for winter chances we probably don't want...true +PNA and colder PV was my take on this run, best looking west coast ridge (+PNA) I've seen modeled for this period, I think... Overall, slightly colder at the surface...21 degrees at RDU on the 8th, 23 central SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Extremely strong dip at 192 on the Euro... WOW xD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Euro much colder this run at 144hrs....my god that's some cold bottled up in Canada...this might be similar to the parallel simply by how much cold is actually able to be tapped....-36 850mb's east of the hudson and -30's NE of the lakes...widespread cold and not condensed like the 12z 168hrs: -35 850mb's south of the hudson, -30's in the CONUS at this point over the lakes. 144mb high over central US....to compare, 12z had 138mb high at 192hrs Ridge notably more west and taller this run as well, huge difference. Edit: comparing 192 from the 0z to 216 from the 12z, this run is an improvement but doesn't appear to give us results like the parallel, which for winter chances we probably don't want...true +PNA and colder PV was my take on this run, best looking west coast ridge (+PNA) I've seen modeled for this period, I think... Big differences in the north pacific day 8 between the euro and gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Lol 00z PARA brings the hounds...loving it. Euro should be interesting tonight considering the trends...I have a feeling if the Euro is cold there's not much many can say about an SE ridge or warmth during this time period Keep in mind the para GFS actually has a larger warm bias in the boundary layer than the regular GFS... Additionally, I'll mention that even though December has appeared to underperform in the AO department for an extremely high SAI year, remember that Cohen's -AO response was primarily focused in February, and January was when the stratospheric anomalies would down well into the troposphere, in the form of a sudden stratospheric warming event. For the most part thus far, everything is going to plan... Looking at the actual data, December clearly hows the weakest -AO response in high SAI years, while February shows the most robust response w/ January not too far behind. (I defined these high SAI as those which had >+.5 standard deviation increase in the October Eurasian snow cover, (I could have used the 1 standard deviation marker, but I wanted to loosen the restrictions for the purpose of expanding the sample size) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Fantasy GFS has a major ice storm for NC/SC in the LR, FWIW.... This is what you want to see if develop for a good winter storm. We don't have a great pattern with all of the indexes in a favorable configuration like we like to see, but we can still have snow and ice in this type of pattern. This is way out there, but it illustrates that point. At 276, there is a massive 1052 HP over MN, extending over to upstate NY. There are several impulses in the southern stream moving through the deep south: Things look favorable for cold air delivery all the way through 324, as the pattern evolves to this: There's another precip maker with a strong HP still in the central US, extending into the NE. This is a big winter storm. Obviously, it won't verify. But it shows that there are ways to bring home the bacon in the upcoming pattern. It's always good when you have a cold Canada, as it takes just a few changes to allow the cold to be delivered into the US. That's where we're headed...even as the ensembles spike the AO to as much as 5 SD above normal! SAI ftw! Lastly, here's the last CFS monthly prog for Jan. It's better than yesterday, that's for sure: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Looks like we will warm back up the end of next week if the ensembles are correct. The epo ridge looks to relax so the cold air feed will be lost. Things try to reshuffle towards the end of the run with below normal heights over Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolinaSon Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Model trends looked good yesterday and last night heading into January. A blend of the para GFS and Euro might be good. Hope they keep up and things start coming together towards the middle of the month. Still a long way off, but there is plenty of time for some winter excitement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Model trends looked good yesterday and last night heading into January. A blend of the para GFS and Euro might be good. Hope they keep up and things start coming together towards the middle of the month. Still a long way off, but there is plenty of time for some winter excitement. Welcome aboard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Only model I looked at this morning was the 6z para and it looks like big highs, one right after another with ridging holding out west from around 120 almost through the entire run. After looking at that (and admittedly I don't know why I chose that model as I never look at it), I don't want to look at any of the others............... It might taint my optimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Keep in mind the para GFS actually has a larger warm bias in the boundary layer than the regular GFS... [img=http://weatheradvance.com/home/weather/weatheradvance.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/GFS-Mean-Temperature-Bias-Parallel-vs-Operatio Additionally, I'll mention that even though December has appeared to underperform in the AO department for an extremely high SAI year, remember that Cohen's -AO response was primarily focused in February, [img=http://weatheradvance.com/home/weather/weatheradvance.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Cohen-SAI-Monthly-Process-expla and January was when the stratospheric anomalies would down well into the troposphere, in the form of a sudden stratospheric warming event. For the most part thus far, everything is going to plan... [img=http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ Looking at the actual data, December clearly hows the weakest -AO response in high SAI years, while February shows the most robust response w/ January not too far behind. (I defined these high SAI as those which had >+.5 standard deviation increase in the October Eurasian snow cover, (I could have used the 1 standard deviation marker, but I wanted to loosen the restrictions for the purpose of expanding the sample size) [img=http://weatheradvance.com/home/weather/weatheradvance.com/wp-content/uplo 2005 and 2007 stick out like sore thumbs on there, but in a good way. Both had strong +AO through mid Jan then the -AO flipped after Jan 20th, but 2005 didn't dive until mid/end of Feb through mid-March. 2007 was really a good looking pattern from Jan 20th through end of Feb, but was real dry. You would think if it was more active it could have been more snowy. Encouraging looking at those winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Looks like we will warm back up the end of next week if the ensembles are correct. The epo ridge looks to relax so the cold air feed will be lost. Things try to reshuffle towards the end of the run with below normal heights over Cuba. Yeah, Euro EPS Control run floods the country with warm air. Almost the entire county above zero at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 no potential wintry fun on this run for next tue/wed...but I can still see the players on the field on the gfs. run doesn't look that bad, not at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 2005 and 2007 stick out like sore thumbs on there, but in a good way. Both had strong +AO through mid Jan then the -AO flipped after Jan 20th, but 2005 didn't dive until mid/end of Feb through mid-March. 2007 was really a good looking pattern from Jan 20th through end of Feb, but was real dry. You would think if it was more active it could have been more snowy. Encouraging looking at those winters. 2009-10 also follows 2005 & 07 w/ generally better February in the SE US & E coast (as one would expect for an El Nino), despite the fact that the winter got off to a relatively fast start... 1 NESIS snowstorm in December vs 3 in February, & all-time record (not just for February) for the lowest AO ever observed, monthly average was all the way down a mind-numbing -4.266, beating out January 1977... The averaged AO in +ENSO winters & El Ninos exemplifies the seasonal modulation the ENSO index has on the NAM. Increasing disruption of the polar vortex/-AO/NAO state as the winter progresses. December once again, is the least favorable for yielding a -AO in this ENSO base state, February OTH, is most conducive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.