burgertime Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 To some extent we are only as good as the data available to us I agree with some others that the large scale pattern seems to be moving in the right direction. However it is difficult to nail down specific storm opportunities beyond 5-7 days especially since models have had difficulty recently with the medium and long range. However, we greatly improve our chances for the long range with cold air building in Canada and a trough axis seeming to want to set up somewhere across the middle to eastern US. Just have to play the waiting game until the pattern takes shape. Great point, as usual storms showing up past 5 days are simply entertainment. The first step is actually getting a pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 When the epo goes to -5sd arctic air will pour into the consensus from Siberia. Strong highs will continue to funnel down until the epo ridge relaxes. How far south it comes is yet to be determined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buncombe Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I thought that the NCEP prognostic discussion was somewhat encouraging in a twisted way yesterday. They were predicting cold north US but warm southeast, but the 6-10 day prediction was only a 3 confidence, and the 8-14 a 2, below average. The reason for the lack of confidence is the extent of the high heights in the Southeast and the progression of the cold air south. They recognize that the boundary line for the cold air could be farther south than the models were showing yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Quite frankly, given how warm the Euro is, I'd expect at least 20 degrees warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Quite frankly, given how warm the Euro is, I'd expect at least 20 degrees warmer.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 ? Well, for one thing, only one model is showing that sort of cold. You could make an argument that the Canadian might be that cold later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 For example, the euro has a high closer to 40 next week in that same time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Let me break it down like this. Will there be a cold shot somewhere as modeled? Yes. Will it make it east? I believe so. Will it make it to 40N? Probably. Can it push to 35N? I don't know. I'd be even more pessimistic if I lived along I-20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Considering the strat stuff is imminent and not some long lead fantasy, it's probably safe to assume there will be "some" type of impact on NH circulation coming up. And I think it's safe to say that long lead ens guidance isn't taking it into consideration until the process is underway in the bottom half of the atmosphere. Where she goes...does anybody know? Although this post, posted by nchighcountrywx way back on Nov 14th, was said to be in jest, it seems to be on the way to becoming one of the more prophetic posts of the year. "I agree with concern about the Pacific jet ruining our December. Also separately, in jest to interject humor only, I hope we don't have to rely on Stratospheric Warming to pull us out of the tank. Normally that straw is grasped for in late January." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Euro ENS took a good step. Looks inline with the Euro run today in the 200 range. gotta see if it can trend better moving forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 If we could just kick that vorticity lobe that gets stuck underneath a Rex Block over the west coast out of the Baja Peninsula & SW US just a little bit faster, we'd be in business... I absolutely love the synoptic setup & equatorial forcing we're about to go into, couldn't ask for much more on that front, but we still have a laundry list of variables to contend w/ & sort out before we should get amped up about this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 O I see what you are saying. I think the biggest difference between the two is where the trough axis is. The para I'd more plains/east so we get the core while the euro is more northeast so we get a glancing blow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 It's certainly not every day you see a beautiful Equatorial Rossby Wave Signature like this... Check out those WWBs (Westerly Wind Bursts), wow. This is one of those cases where you don't even need the RMM/VPM or VP diagrams to tell you where the mean upward MJO signal is & since the MJO idealistically consists of a mixed Kelvin-Rossby structure, the convectively enhanced phase is almost always directly to the east of a strong approximately symmetric Rossby Wave like what we're observing now (i.e. in this case the Maritime Continent, MJO Phases 4-5). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Good news bad news....I have to a conclusion that I am no longer going to maintain this page. I am very sorry for all of this, but its a decision that I need to make because I don't have the extra time that y'all properly deserve. It takes too much of my "personal/at home time" and no offense but nothing comes before them. I will still do videos, post on TW on AMWX and post on our 41FirstAlert twitter pages and Facebook pages. please go on over to our stations pages please. I will not stop posting, but can't do it on so many avenues. Thanks for understanding. https://www.facebook.com/41FirstAlert Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Good news bad news....I have to a conclusion that I am no longer going to maintain this page. I am very sorry for all of this, but its a decision that I need to make because I don't have the extra time that y'all properly deserve. It takes too much of my "personal/at home time" and no offense but nothing comes before them. I will still do videos, post on TW on AMWX and post on our 41FirstAlert twitter pages and Facebook pages. please go on over to our stations pages please. I will not stop posting, but can't do it on so many avenues. Thanks for understanding. https://www.facebook.com/41FirstAlert Dang that sucks, but hey I know you're working very hard to maintain your work on multiple venues, and I really appreciate it. Even I have issues just contending w/ two social media/internet outlets much less what you are dealing with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Wonder how long before we are pull out of this mess...good news is that there isn't a low over Barent/Kara seas region that Cohen was worried about post d10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Good news bad news....I have to a conclusion that I am no longer going to maintain this page. I am very sorry for all of this, but its a decision that I need to make because I don't have the extra time that y'all properly deserve. It takes too much of my "personal/at home time" and no offense but nothing comes before them. I will still do videos, post on TW on AMWX and post on our 41FirstAlert twitter pages and Facebook pages. please go on over to our stations pages please. I will not stop posting, but can't do it on so many avenues. Thanks for understanding. https ://www.facebook.com/41FirstAlert No problem Chris, I appreciate what you do. got to have your family time. Will still be waiting on the winter storm videos, one these years! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Wonder how long before we are pull out of this mess...good news is that there isn't a low over Barent/Kara seas region that Cohen was worried about post d10. At least the run is a step away from a -pna d11-15. AO/NAO are perfect if you like them positive though. I looped the members and the majority continue a parade of cold hp's to the north during that window. My guess is we end up cooler than we think overall but some pesky warm days in front of any organized system. There's just nothing to keep them from running west. Frustrating huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Although this post, posted by nchighcountrywx way back on Nov 14th, was said to be in jest, it seems to be on the way to becoming one of the more prophetic posts of the year. "I agree with concern about the Pacific jet ruining our December. Also separately, in jest to interject humor only, I hope we don't have to rely on Stratospheric Warming to pull us out of the tank. Normally that straw is grasped for in late January." Thank you Sir. Relying on our gut and intuition often works. It's called common sense. I will admit though, as I was Cross Country Skiing at 7:30am at sunrise with 6 to 11 inches of snow on the ground on November 1, I said to myself that I was sure glad I was out here getting it done in this snowfall, as being able to get a 6" to 11" snow on November 1 seems to question all of the analog talk for a wall to wall lock down cold and snowy winter. Stratospheric Warming? I would never trust it and as we have seen before, everything just dumps back over to where the cold already was. Interesting note is that many mornings recently it has been colder down in the Piedmont and Foothills than in the High Country. The cold at the 850mb level has been unimpressive to say the least lately. I am hoping for a change around the 3rd week or 4th week of January. Let's hope for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 18z looking a bit warmer in the mid-south than 12z at hour 174... We'll see how this run turns out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I still say we are well on our way to seeing a very nice pattern change. The cold air will very close and big highs that continue to push south will allow for that to push into the SE, its a matter of time IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricanelonny Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I don't know if anyone posted any of Dr. Jeff Masters articles but it's a good read. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2887 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 18z PARA much closer to the 12z Euro run. I think we'll need to get through the weekend before we get any clarity on how the PV falls and how big of a chill we get dumped on the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 18z PARA much closer to the 12z Euro run. I think we'll need to get through the weekend before we get any clarity on how the PV falls and how big of a chill we get dumped on the SE. To me it all depends on the western ridge and where it sets up. All models break it down . Is that correct? Who knows . But if it does break down clearly all the cold will stay well north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 So torchy....well, for Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 So torchy....well, for Florida. lol, my friend .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 At least the run is a step away from a -pna d11-15. AO/NAO are perfect if you like them positive though. I looped the members and the majority continue a parade of cold hp's to the north during that window. My guess is we end up cooler than we think overall but some pesky warm days in front of any organized system. There's just nothing to keep them from running west. Frustrating huh? Very frustrating although getting curious to see if this SSW materializes and it turns the winter around. I saw a post from your forum about 2007, which is interesting as things flipped after the 20th. Granted it wasn't snowy for us, but could have been if it was more active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 LOL, Jon and Burger...At least we will have the "PV" coming down on our side of the pole...that is step #1 for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Very frustrating although getting curious to see if this SSW materializes and it turns the winter around. I saw a post from your forum about 2007, which is interesting as things flipped after the 20th. Granted it wasn't snowy for us, but could have been if it was more active.The most memorable thing from 07 was the biggest sleet storm I've ever seen. I got like 4-5" of sleet and it went frigid afterwards so it was a glacier for days. My friends wife was an xray tech at the time and the office she worked at was standing room only from people sledding on the glacier and breaking bones. Lol.Seems like the euro is trending towards the pv consolidating again after the split. I have limited knowledge of the process so I'll defer. I'm not picky anymore this winter. I just want some frozen in any form asap. It's been such a dud for so many and the ao/nao has been hideous. If things don't change in Jan the balance of this winter will be a colossal bust of every single call in the fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 New weather video is up online. Nothing really fancy going on, but I think there is potential, but for who? Let me know what y'all think https://www.facebook.com/41FirstAlert Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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