packbacker Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 This is what we want boys and girls if you like cold. Not that cold, LOL. Pipe busting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Wow highs in lower 20's on the PARA for CLT and single digits in the mountains. Too bad this is one run 200 hours out. -20's around the Hudson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 This is what we want boys and girls if you like cold. Nothing says COLD quite like a nice 1052 HP centered over Nebraska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Nothing says COLD quite like a nice 1052 HP centered over Nebraska. The bad news is it's a dry cold...but damn PARA coming with the goods today. Curious to see what the CMC and Euro have to say for the same time period as they have better resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 This is what we want boys and girls if you like cold. Not if it's dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Wow highs in lower 20's on the PARA for CLT and single digits in the mountains. Too bad this is one run 200 hours out. -20's around the Hudson. The 12z GFS also took a step in this direction, so maybe this is not out-to-lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Not if it's dry. Note I said cold...not snow. Also you say this every year...yet when does snow usually occur? It doesn't tend to happen when we're in a patter with highs in the lower 50's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 @210 GFS Para our saviour has come! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 GFS PARA brings the motherload down on the SE around hour 200...WOW. Burger, That's good to see for sure. If the Para were operational, I'd probably have been OMG'ing it as it was being released just like one week ago today at 12Z. But alas, it is only the Para, unfortunately. Hasn't the Para supposedly been more inconsistent and less reliable than the op.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Not if it's dry. Keep up the positive attitude, Brock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Note I said cold...not snow. Also you say this every year...yet when does snow usually occur? It doesn't tend to happen when we're in a patter with highs in the lower 50's. I know. Now if the precip comes along afterwards or with it, that would be great. But usually these really cold outbreaks just bring dry weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Not if it's dry. Just my opinion, but you need at least some cold/dry weather to make a good winter. During these spells we can also get clippers. Also if we're getting the cold the moisture will eventually come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Just my opinion, but you need at least some cold/dry weather to make a good winter. During these spells we can also get clippers. Also if we're getting the cold the moisture will eventually come. Yes, if we could get the wet pattern we have had lately to continue. I just know usually when we get bitter cold it just stays dry. Maybe if the precip comes when the cold is letting up but is still cold enough for snow we can have some fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 *Potential* ice storm at 300-312 on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Note I said cold...not snow. Also you say this every year...yet when does snow usually occur? It doesn't tend to happen when we're in a patter with highs in the lower 50's. Yes, cold is ingredient #1. Then even if it's cold and dry at least you can take a quick trip to the mountains and see a bit of NW flow snow. If this run is the start of models latching on to cold in the LR, Matt East becomes my new hero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Sweet sassy molassy those are some cold temps for the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Burger, That's good to see for sure. If the Para were operational, I'd probably have been OMG'ing it as it was being released just like one week ago today at 12Z. But alas, it is only the Para, unfortunately. Hasn't the Para supposedly been more inconsistent and less reliable than the op.? Hard to say, from looking at it and not actually saving real images to see if it verifies it tends to do OK IMO. I've noticed it usually picks up trends faster than the GFS. So for instance it hopped on board the cold west dump before the GFS....same thing with what was going to be that big Christmas bomb in the midwest. Those of course ended up not verifying too well...but other models jumped on board and the GFS PARA sniffed them out first. I feel like it does really well in the 48 - 100 hour range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 For our next to last piece of evidence, I'd like to submit Exhibit G, the equatorial Pacific SST chart, showcasing the popular pee-stain pattern, with some wind anomalies for good measure: sstweek_c.jpg I swear. I misread "anomalies" as "animals" and spent 30 seconds looking for animal shapes in the wind outlines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 CMC look more like the OP GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 A few of us have been saying that once the PV gets to eastern Canada the US isn't just going to torch all month like the CFS shows. It was just a matter of time until a model spit out this type of cold IMO. I'd rather have the cold, get the snow pack going, and wait for the models to sniff out a good pattern. With the way the Euro looked around 200 compared to the GFS yesterday (I posted them) it's not surprising to see the para bring the cold too. Where is the SE ridge guys? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Cohen un cancels winter... http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I actually think the GFS is sniffing something out. It could be on to something. That DEEP sw energy could be** MONEY in the bank... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Cohen un cancels winter... http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation Did he? Sounds like there were a bunch of ifs ands and buts in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Hopefully the Euro will agree with the GFS and Para... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 A few of us have been saying that once the PV gets to eastern Canada the US isn't just going to torch all month like the CFS shows. It was just a matter of time until a model spit out this type of cold IMO. I'd rather have the cold, get the snow pack going, and wait for the models to sniff out a good pattern. With the way the Euro looked around 200 compared to the GFS yesterday (I posted them) it's not surprising to see the para bring the cold too. Where is the SE ridge guys? Right here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Did he? Sounds like there were a bunch of ifs ands and buts in there. Yep, doesn't get any more blunt than this....he saying 1-2 weeks before we see the effects, so you figure by Jan 15th AO should be negative until atleast end of Feb. Following a SSW a negative AO is favored for up to 60 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Right here...That's the ensembles, wasn't my point, thanks for labeling it for me though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Right here...the dreaded Icelandic low... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Yep, doesn't get any more blunt than this....he saying 1-2 weeks before we see the effects, so you figure by Jan 15th AO should be negative until atleast end of Feb. Following a SSW a negative AO is favored for up to 60 days. Considering the strat stuff is imminent and not some long lead fantasy, it's probably safe to assume there will be "some" type of impact on NH circulation coming up. And I think it's safe to say that long lead ens guidance isn't taking it into consideration until the process is underway in the bottom half of the atmosphere. Where she goes...does anybody know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 A few of us have been saying that once the PV gets to eastern Canada the US isn't just going to torch all month like the CFS shows. It was just a matter of time until a model spit out this type of cold IMO. I'd rather have the cold, get the snow pack going, and wait for the models to sniff out a good pattern. With the way the Euro looked around 200 compared to the GFS yesterday (I posted them) it's not surprising to see the para bring the cold too. Where is the SE ridge guys? Indeed. My El Nino temperature & placement composites have at least hinted at the possibility that if there was one month we would see the SE US ridge be a transient feature in the pattern it would be January, and it's worth noting for future reference that in stronger El Ninos the temperature distribution tends to flip entirely from it's Weak El Nino-+Neutral counterparts... You simply can not sustain the SE US ridge for long under this kind of set-up, our +PDO is an absolute whopper, & was the 5th strongest on record in the fall (since 1900, behind 1987, 1934, 1997, & 1936) & of course is the strongest since the 1997-98 super El Nino. In a idealized +PDO you essentially create a +PNA w/ SEward shift and intensification of the Aleutian Low favoring extension of the Pacific Jet & split flow over N America, w/ abnormally robust southern branch cutting underneath that's a major disruption to the SE US ridge & is directly related to its intensity/longevity. The SE US ridge is virtually guaranteed make its presence felt at some point in the winter even w/ a powerful +PDO, those who are (& will be) complaining about it making a punctuated appearance in January likely need to seriously consider a major re-evalution of their perception on climatology... Regressed DJF N America 500mb following strong fall +PDOs In a strong warm PDO like this year, the SE US ridge tends to really take a beating & tend to get especially flattened in Feb, as the anomalous Aleutian trough shifts southward leading to more zonal height regression, redirecting the already amplified subtropical jet more into the heart of the SE ridge itself, causing it to generally shift further offshore... Also note the correspondence b/t +PDO & lower heights in the SE US is weaker in December. December +PDO Regressed N America 500mb January +PDO regressed N America 500mb This is consistent once again w/ the El Nino temperature composites, w/ strongest temp anoms across the board. vs normal in Feb here in the southeastern US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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