tnweathernut Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Winner: tnwxnut's 28%!! Congrats! Answer 31%. :( It is an interesting number, all things considered. BTW - I wish the prize was a 6-12 snowstorm to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 This might be of interest. Mean NAO by month since 1950: The data was gathered from here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table I hope I didn't **** it up in SAS somehow. James, Thanks. So, the NAO averages very slightly negative over the 12 months. I did a similar calc. for the AO a while back and found it to average near -0.3. Therefore, I actually consider a -0.3 AO to be the true neutral number as opposed to 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I seem to remember a few years back everyone pinning their hopes to a much hyped SSWE to make things better. The event came to fruition only to dump the cold into Europe. Does anyone recall what year that was? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I seem to remember a few years back everyone pinning their hopes to a much hyped SSWE to make things better. The event came to fruition only to dump the cold into Europe. Does anyone recall what year that was? 2011-12 and it barely did much there I think it lasted maybe 10 days. I think it was February 2012 to be specific, the EPO ridge did indeed build over Alaska but in about 5-7 days the thing retrograded to Siberia and that was all for that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I seem to remember a few years back everyone pinning their hopes to a much hyped SSWE to make things better. The event came to fruition only to dump the cold into Europe. Does anyone recall what year that was?11-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 2011-12 and it barely did much there I think it lasted maybe 10 days. I think it was February 2012 to be specific, the EPO ridge did indeed build over Alaska but in about 5-7 days the thing retrograded to Siberia and that was all for that winter.Alaska had their best winter ever that year with the goa trough a stable feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Alaska had their best winter ever that year with the goa trough a stable feature. GOA trofs tend to be a b**ch to get rid of once they setup shop after 12/20, before that is a different story but it seems whatever pattern setups by AK near mid to late December stays most of the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Consider these stats for ATL: For major SN/IP since 1950, whereas there were five that had +NAO/+AO, only a little higher number, seven, had a -NAO/-AO.For major ZR since 1950: whereas there were five that had +NAO/+AO, only little higher number, six, had a -NAO/-AO.NAO: median/mean -0.1/-0.1 with range +1.0 to -1.1 for major SN/IP and median/mean -0.2/-0.3 with range +0.8 to -1.9 for major ZRAO: median/mean -0.2/-0.7 with range +2.3 to -4.8 for major SN/IP and median/mean -0.4/-0.3 with range +3.5 to -2.8 for major ZRAfter considering these stats, I'm a bit relieved about +NAO/+AO because they aren't as bad as I had expected. The NAO median/mean for major SN/IP are practically neutral! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Consider these stats for ATL: For major SN/IP since 1950, whereas there were five that had +NAO/+AO, only a little higher number, seven, had a -NAO/-AO. For major ZR since 1950: whereas there were five that had +NAO/+AO, only little higher number, six, had a -NAO/-AO. NAO: median/mean -0.1/-0.1 with range +1.0 to -1.1 for major SN/IP and median/mean -0.2/-0.3 with range +0.8 to -1.9 for major ZR AO: median/mean -0.2/-0.7 with range +2.3 to -4.8 for major SN/IP and median/mean -0.4/-0.3 with range +3.5 to -2.8 for major ZR After considering these stats, I'm a bit relieved about +NAO/+AO because they aren't as bad as I had expected. I saw research from someone about 8-10 years ago showing that the SE US in particular tends to see more winter storms during the inactive period of the Atlantic basin hurricane phases, so that would basically be 1969-1994 and I guess 1919-1944 or so since they run 25 year cycles historically..,the reason why was uncertain but there sure did seem to be a downward trend for many of the SE cities in the 1945-1968 period and after 1994 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I saw research from someone about 8-10 years ago showing that the SE US in particular tends to see more winter storms during the inactive period of the Atlantic basin hurricane phases, so that would basically be 1969-1994 and I guess 1919-1944 or so since they run 25 year cycles historically..,the reason why was uncertain but there sure did seem to be a downward trend for many of the SE cities in the 1945-1968 period and after 1994 SG, ATL, itself, hasn't held to this as it has been a pretty even split since 1919 fwiw: Major winter storms ATL including ZR 1919-44: 12 1945-68: 11 1969-94: 10 1994-14: 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 seems the past couple years have been pretty "inactive", but I'm not sure what that term refers to - total 'canes, land-falling storms/canes/t-s/depressions, fish storms, named storms in toto ...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 seems the past couple years have been pretty "inactive", but I'm not sure what that term refers to - total 'canes, land-falling storms/canes/t-s/depressions, fish storms, named storms in toto ...? We are probably coming out of this active phase soon, been in it since 1995 now but yes the last 2 years have been dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I saw research from someone about 8-10 years ago showing that the SE US in particular tends to see more winter storms during the inactive period of the Atlantic basin hurricane phases, so that would basically be 1969-1994 and I guess 1919-1944 or so since they run 25 year cycles historically..,the reason why was uncertain but there sure did seem to be a downward trend for many of the SE cities in the 1945-1968 period and after 1994 Yep, by 1940 RDU's 30 yr avg was almost 9" and same by 1990. Our up to date 30 year avg is roughly 6", so there is something cyclical about our seasonal snowfall. Was thinking it would be turning around about now or the next couple of years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Yep, by 1940 RDU's 30 yr avg was almost 9" and same by 1990. Our up to date 30 year avg is roughly 6", so there is something cyclical about our seasonal snowfall. Was thinking it would be turning around about now or the next couple of years.Pack, Don 't forget major ZR 's. You may have had more big ZR's & big IP 's during the slower SN periods. So, just looking at # of inches may possibly be deceiving. In ATL, that has tended to be the case and vice versa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Nice wedge showing on Fri/Sat...Looks like SW VA could be a close call in the beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Nothing to like about last nights runs in the LR at all. Ugly, ugly ugly. 6z PARA was close to something big for the Carolinas in the 240 range. Other than that yuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Nothing to like about last nights runs in the LR at all. Ugly, ugly ugly. 6z PARA was close to something big for the Carolinas in the 240 range. Other than that yuck. Plenty of cold air lurking around closeby in the long range (late next week and beyond)..... 6z GFS downright cold for the Carolinas next Thursday-ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Plenty of cold air lurking around closeby in the long range (late next week and beyond)..... 6z GFS downright cold for the Carolinas next Thursday-ish. It is indeed there but the 00z GFS and Euro runs looked bad in the LR for how the cold air will get here (or not get here). Good news is it was one set of runs and it's in the LR which recently has been like shaking a magic eight ball in a dice game on a roulette table to figure out whats going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Day 10+ the pattern breaks down, for how long we don't know. Hopefully by the 20th of Jan we see blocking develop, the MJO is backing off on getting to phase 7 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Interesting double top at +3 for the AO being modeled. If this was a stock this would be a good sign for a AO about take a steep dive. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Interesting double top at +3 for the AO being modeled. If this was a stock this would be a good sign for a AO about take a steep dive. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif Sell high, buy low!! Looking like mid month before it even really sniffs getting to neutral Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Matthew East 4 mins · Long term pattern.... I think the models are just beginning to sniff out some of the potential for periodic waves of Jan. cold. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 It is indeed there but the 00z GFS and Euro runs looked bad in the LR for how the cold air will get here (or not get here). Good news is it was one set of runs and it's in the LR which recently has been like shaking a magic eight ball in a dice game on a roulette table to figure out whats going on. I was going to say anything past 5 days on the models is constantly changing. They are not reliable at all past that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I was going to say anything past 5 days on the models is constantly changing. They are not reliable at all past that point. There it is. The wheels are coming off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 There it is. The wheels are coming off. Not at all. They could be wrong in our favor just as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 33m33 minutes ago Still watching 1/8 through 1/11 time frame. Key is movement of PV into eastern Can. This trend has been weaker in latest GFS runs. Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 33m33 minutes ago Watching 1/15-1/20 as potential time for colder possibly more stable pattern to develop. Big -EPO ridge on latest GEFS/GGEM ENS D15-16. Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 32m32 minutes ago However ECMWF ENS not as excited yet, although could be going there by late in its 00z run. We shall see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparkync Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Not at all. They could be wrong in our favor just as much. I agree Brick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Day 10+ the pattern breaks down, for how long we don't know. Hopefully by the 20th of Jan we see blocking develop, the MJO is backing off on getting to phase 7 though.and that pattern will quickly break down too. Aleutian Low +trough east of Hawaii. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Interesting double top at +3 for the AO being modeled. If this was a stock this would be a good sign for a AO about take a steep dive. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif Around the 5th/6th the OP has gone from negative to neutral several times for the last 10 runs...I'm kinda interested in this because a good amount of the members (roughly 14/21) dip at least neutral to negative during this time...however it does appear transient and the next chance to develop one would be around the 13th so mid-month as you can see with the lastest ensemble members. But we don't necessarily need an -AO for snow that's why the period before the 10th interests me. Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 33m33 minutes ago Still watching 1/8 through 1/11 time frame. Key is movement of PV into eastern Can. This trend has been weaker in latest GFS runs. Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 33m33 minutes ago Watching 1/15-1/20 as potential time for colder possibly more stable pattern to develop. Big -EPO ridge on latest GEFS/GGEM ENS D15-16. Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 32m32 minutes ago However ECMWF ENS not as excited yet, although could be going there by late in its 00z run. We shall see! Yeah, time around the 10th or so has been on the radar for a while...the GFS sucks. What I'm paying attention to is the Euro in the LR, which is the bottom tweet by Allan. Just comparing the Euro vs the GFS at 216 I believe it was shows how crappy the GFS is in the LR and why any "trend" whether positive or negative, in this case, should be ignored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 As I've stated before I think our best chance for wintery precip will be the end of January into the first two weeks of February. The only reason I can give (other than gut feeling) is from past readings about how the pattern usually flips to an opposite configuration(from the dominate winter pattern) during mid winter. Either this is a mid winter thaw or a mid winter cold snap. I think 1999-2000 was a similar winter where it was warm up until the last part of January. The pattern got cold and we ended up with this: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20000125/ Not saying we'll get a major storm but think this will be the most favorable time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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