Cold Rain Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Stays pretty cold from 180-384 Thanks man! And Pack, yeah I share the concern on the NAO. Not sure why that's so hard to come by. The big west based -NAO that was showing up is now gone from the modeling, it looks like. I'm starting to have some real concerns about any sustained blocking developing this winter, even though virtually all signs pointed to it going in. We don't have to have it (see last winter), but it helps tremendously, as you pointed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 all the ensembles agree and have agreed on the epo staying negative. Arctic air will remain in the pattern. This is the way, like last year, we can do ok without blocking. Still, I'm getting the feeling that when this winter is over, there is going to be a lot of head scratching going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 As others have mentioned I really like the idea of a New Years dy storm for the SE. So does LC. The problem as others have stated is that this big system going to the lakes needs to setup in order for the models to get some consistency. 00z last night shows the potential of what type of cold we could be dealing with. Very much had a Jan. 2011 look to it. My only issue with that is everything will get pushed to Cuba....we kind of need a relaxed version of that so we can end up closer to a solution like the Euro which is more Christmas 2010. I guess the dominant cold is more helpful to those of us further south. Many storms that folks in NC cash in on leaves those of us near ATL straddling the freezing line. Jan. 2011 storm was one of the longest lasting storms I can remember in 22 years in GA. 5-6" of snow and ice that stayed on the ground and roads for a week with temps at or below freezing the entire time. I know what you mean though. It sucks to see a good snowstorm nearby while you get nothing IYBY. Here's hoping we all cash in when the pattern changes. Driving to Charlotte for the Belk Bowl Dec. 30-31. Would not mind watching it in snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 This is the way, like last year, we can do ok without blocking. Still, I'm getting the feeling that when this winter is over, there is going to be a lot of head scratching going on.I don't know it's still very early. I think the nao will cooperate later in January based of the qbo. It does have more influence on the pattern later in the season than earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 There seems to be two different camps for if the NAO and AO will go negative. Seems like they are split for either solidly negative or solidly positive. This is where we need old fashion meteorology. The PNA looks to stay consistently slight positive for the LR. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 The new years day time frame is starting to really peak my interest. Artic air intrusion with a boisterous southern stream, decent shot at a -NAO per GEFS. Around half the GEFS members from the 6z have large accumulation on their 9-16 day maps. Yeah this is in fantasy land, but I think we finally start to see our day 10+ threat make it to single digits and become reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 https://mobile.twitter.com/eastwx/status/546654596245237760The tight temp gradient over the Carolina's , looks perfect for a storm track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 GEFS does have several members with Burgers NYE storm...here is one. Dear Santa........ This is the way, like last year, we can do ok without blocking. Still, I'm getting the feeling that when this winter is over, there is going to be a lot of head scratching going on. Maybe for you, but not so much here We don't need it as a staple, just need it long enough to get the job done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I don't know it's still very early. I think the nao will cooperate later in January based of the qbo. It does have more influence on the pattern later in the season than earlier. I'm not so sure I buy the fact that it has more influence over the pattern in Feb than it does earlier in the season. It might be more prevalent then, but it can exert a great deal of influence on the pattern whenever it shows up, unless it's negates by something else. I think the way I do about blocking, because there are so many comments and discussions from people displaying some level of doubt (or at least, less certainty) when they were so confident coming in. Cohen, Don S., DT, and there are others. Plus, it hasn't shown up yet, and we're just about to X out 1/3 of met winter. We'll see.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I'm not so sure I buy the fact that it has more influence over the pattern in Feb than it does earlier in the season. It might be more prevalent then, but it can exert a great deal of influence on the pattern whenever it shows up, unless it's negates by something else. I think the way I do about blocking, because there are so many comments and discussions from people displaying some level of doubt (or at least, less certainty) when they were so confident coming in. Cohen, Don S., DT, and there are others. Plus, it hasn't shown up yet, and we're just about to X out 1/3 of met winter. We'll see.... One thing to think about is we have X out 1/3 of the winter but that particular part of the winter usually does not bring us much wintery precip even in cold patterns. Our cold period is the first part of January to the first week of March. The only people who have lost this time period are the folks to our north (MA & NE). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I'm not so sure I buy the fact that it has more influence over the pattern in Feb than it does earlier in the season. It might be more prevalent then, but it can exert a great deal of influence on the pattern whenever it shows up, unless it's negates by something else. I think the way I do about blocking, because there are so many comments and discussions from people displaying some level of doubt (or at least, less certainty) when they were so confident coming in. Cohen, Don S., DT, and there are others. Plus, it hasn't shown up yet, and we're just about to X out 1/3 of met winter. We'll see.... Well we have 2/3 (x) x -1/3 = amazing, all things equal and x=awesome ! Winter is coming ! It may only last a week or two, but slowly the models are converging on cold from about 12/28-1/6 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 One thing to think about is we have X out 1/3 of the winter but that particular part of the winter usually does not bring us much wintery precip even in cold patterns. Our cold period is the first part of January to the first week of March. The only people who have lost this time period are the folks to our north (MA & NE). Yeah I agree. Just saying we still don't have clarity on how blocking will play out, and the clock is ticking.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I'm not so sure I buy the fact that it has more influence over the pattern in Feb than it does earlier in the season. It might be more prevalent then, but it can exert a great deal of influence on the pattern whenever it shows up, unless it's negates by something else. I think the way I do about blocking, because there are so many comments and discussions from people displaying some level of doubt (or at least, less certainty) when they were so confident coming in. Cohen, Don S., DT, and there are others. Plus, it hasn't shown up yet, and we're just about to X out 1/3 of met winter. We'll see.... I count March as a more wintry month than dec. We average more snow then so I count at least four full months here. With dec being the month with the least snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Its very interesting to me how much the GFS has went *and euro to some degree* away from the super bomb with the energy and is now just rotating the energy through like a line and not up to the great lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I know the weather can piss you off quicker than you can blink many times, but it sure is fun to see things changing. A couple of days ago, we had the Christmas storm this HUGE ball of energy that was going to rotate down through then up into the lakes...NOW, it looks like its going to rotate down through and out. The next energy is coming in over the rockies and midwest after it, and not the west coast and slowly working east..LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Its very interesting to me how much the GFS has went *and euro to some degree* away from the super bomb with the energy and is now just rotating the energy through like a line and not up to the great lakes. I kind of never did buy that super bomb....it just doesn't happen that often. Is it me or is the GFS dumping the PV into the middle of the US? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I kind of never did buy that super bomb....it just doesn't happen that often. Is it me or is the GFS dumping the PV into the middle of the US? Yes sir!! I actually think the GFS is on to something, just like I think the euro could be on to something as well for Sunday. I am HIGHLY interested in both these runs today. That trof coming down into the plains will pretty much guarantee it clearing the coast for us. Nice -EPO developing as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 12z GFS much faster with the cold air. Bringing it in at 144 this go round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Dropping the PV south... NAO going neg by new years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Take a look at this, IMO this setup, **IF** right will be MONEY near next weekend or by the 1st. Why? Well the trof is moving through the plains and the east and will CLEAR with some good fresh cold air. that should rotate up and become somewhat of at 50/50 low. There is a slight -NAO, but its likely NOT to hold, as of now. There looks to be a -AO as well, and the flood gates have been opened over Canada. We have a ridge over Alaska that is pretty stout, so the EPO will go NEG. The energy coming down into the PAC NW should hook up with the southern branch piece as well. I think the pattern is full of promise, and the GFS is actually seeing it *look at the HR 162...We have very nice cross polar flow, the Ridge is very tall over Alaska, a nice Low about to head into the 50/50 spot and energy diving south. That energy over the pac NW will not stay out west or in the SW because of whats east of Hawaii. This map right here looks GREAT and full of potential IMO hr 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Take a look at this, IMO this setup, **IF** right will be MONEY near next weekend or by the 1st. Why? Well the trof is moving through the plains and the east and will CLEAR with some good fresh cold air. that should rotate up and become somewhat of at 50/50 low. There is a slight -NAO, but its likely NOT to hold, as of now. There looks to be a -AO as well, and the flood gates have been opened over Canada. We have a ridge over Alaska that is pretty stout, so the EPO will go NEG. The energy coming down into the PAC NW should hook up with the southern branch piece as well. I think the pattern is full of promise, and the GFS is actually seeing it *look at the HR 162...We have very nice cross polar flow, the Ridge is very tall over Alaska, a nice Low about to head into the 50/50 spot and energy diving south. That energy over the pac NW will not stay out west or in the SW because of whats east of Hawaii. This map right here looks GREAT and full of potential IMO It looks like it's setting up for fireworks right around New Years right on cue. You can see all that cold air in Canada is trying to work it's way down into the US. This is a fantastic look for being in the medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 12z GFS past 200 hours might be close to record breaking cold. Puts us in the feezer gotta be close to Jan. 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 GFS 12z looks close to some type of record breaking snows for the deep south......I really feel strongly that Jan 1 we will have our first real widespread threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Gfs looking way better in the medium range with the PV dropping south, -EPO, -NAO. Long duration cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Gfs looking way better in the medium range with the PV dropping south, -EPO, -NAO. Long duration cold. From 144-336 it's wall to all cold. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Gfs looking way better in the medium range with the PV dropping south, -EPO, -NAO. Long duration cold. Hopefully ENS agree, but yeah, parade of storms coming in on the west coast, weak -NAO, deep trough, crazy cold, probably would be highs in the low 30's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 GFS 12z looks close to some type of record breaking snows for the deep south......I really feel strongly that Jan 1 we will have our first real widespread threat. Same here...as I mentioned last night it's real close to dropping a killer storm for us just from the way the cold looks and the flow, it's only a matter of time to see deep fantasy snow in the SE and we can have something to track. All signals were showing the pattern changing at the end of Dec and the fun really starting Jan 1st. It's good to see the GFS, as a model some people are hugging to cliff dive, coming around right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 GFS 12z looks close to some type of record breaking snows for the deep south......I really feel strongly that Jan 1 we will have our first real widespread threat. Yeah with that type look and the PV in place over the great lakes, I think our best shot at a widespread event is coming into focus. The models have been hinting at a threat in this timeframe and now it is showing up consistently at an earlier hour every run. Still in fantasy land somewhat, but looks to be a legit setup with the oscillations moving into our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I hardly look at the para, so don't know how it does but it's not as extreme as the GFS. Its missing the west coast ridging. Edit: CMC does develop the nice tall ridging out west, so it's GFS like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Great talk this morning everyone! Burger, I agree. I think the jan 1st threat is more real now as well. I still think we have to watch the euro today, well duh chris, we always do..LOL I Want to see if it has that weak wave riding on the arctic/polar front for next Sunday. I love where this pattern is going, the GFS looks AMAZING this run. Even at hour 384, its still got a very nice ridge over alaska and a NAO trying to go NEG to trap the 50/50 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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