deltadog03 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I know there's a lot of talk of us just canceling winter and jumping off the cliff. I know I for one, and many others on here, do not think that at all. do I think that we're going to see not much what you weather across the Southeast the next few weeks, yes. Shane you could end up being right is well, we could be below normal temperatures with original high-pressure. If I'm not mistaken, I've seen more we've had wedges that I produce significant icing with the ridge off the southeast coast. Am I right about that, for my wonderful analog buddies? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I like this pattern better than the last one for that reason. JMO but it seems like a shift now would have a higher chance of giving snow to the SE than the a shift during the last pattern we were in. Yup, if we get a pattern that dumps cold into Canada, a +PNA that's static or comes and goes, and a Pac jet that is not killing us, it won't take that much of a shift to get something good going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Too late. Cold rain took that check and cashed it. It bounced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Yeah but YBY and Pack's BY is a much different thing. Most assuredly so. Ergo, it explains why I am so eager to take that bet. I like the way the pattern is evolving. We continue to step down. Temps have pretty steadily been in the 50s for highs the past week or so. Now, I'm looking at 40s for highs for the upcoming week. The moisture will meet up with the cold soon enough and the fun and games will begin. If we finally get the elusive stratospheric warming event, then that will be just icing on the cake. One of these damming events is bound to produce wintry weather before too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Most assuredly so. Ergo, it explains why I am so eager to take that bet. I like the way the pattern is evolving. We continue to step down. Temps have pretty steadily been in the 50s for highs the past week or so. Now, I'm looking at 40s for highs for the upcoming week. The moisture will meet up with the cold soon enough and the fun and games will begin. If we finally get the elusive stratospheric warming event, then that will be just icing on the cake. One of these damming events is bound to produce wintry weather before too long. I guess I'm just not much of one for a step down pattern. To me, step down patterns just burn time and you get little in return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Most assuredly so. Ergo, it explains why I am so eager to take that bet. I like the way the pattern is evolving. We continue to step down. Temps have pretty steadily been in the 50s for highs the past week or so. Now, I'm looking at 40s for highs for the upcoming week. The moisture will meet up with the cold soon enough and the fun and games will begin. If we finally get the elusive stratospheric warming event, then that will be just icing on the cake. One of these damming events is bound to produce wintry weather before too long. What's the bet? We are stepping in something, that's for sure....but it ain't a winter pattern anytime soon :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 That cold shot at Day 10 is really interesting. -10 at the 850 level at RDU, -6 at CLT,-3 at GSP, +2 at ATL. 53 in Miami, not bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 If you have a very cold Canada, it is well within the realm of possibility for a winter threat to arise at any time.still need to buckle the jet somehow. And the cold in Canada will slowly modify once we lose the epo since it's of Siberian origin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 What's the bet? We are stepping in something, that's for sure....but it ain't a winter pattern anytime soon :-) Actually, on second thought, my gambling skills are horrible. If we use different backyards, we could both be correct and then both win. I could have greater than one inch of snowfall IMBY and you could have less than one inch of snowfall in yours. What then? And, I definitely don't want to give you the option of using Metal's BY. You would definitely win then. So, I guess we can use your BY as a measuring stick. You've already seen more snow than I have this winter, anyway. What should we bet? Hmmmm... If I win, you'll have to try to be less depressed over upcoming patterns depicted on 5+ day model outputs. You'll have to instead discuss all the great things that might happen in the near term. If you win, I'll try out cliff-jumping for a day or so. I'll look for the worst possible indications of cold and snow to post, reasons for why it will never snow again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Actually, on second thought, my gambling skills are horrible. If we use different backyards, we could both be correct and then both win. I could have greater than one inch of snowfall IMBY and you could have less than one inch of snowfall in yours. What then? And, I definitely don't want to give you the option of using Metal's BY. You would definitely win then. So, I guess we can use your BY as a measuring stick. You've already seen more snow than I have this winter, anyway. What should we bet? Hmmmm... If I win, you'll have to try to be less depressed over upcoming patterns depicted on 5+ day model outputs. You'll have to instead discuss all the great things that might happen in the near term. If you win, I'll try out cliff-jumping for a day or so. I'll look for the worst possible indications of cold and snow to post, reasons for why it will never snow again. Maybe we shouldn't bet, this ain't bad, LoL :-). http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_18gfs610.gif I probably should have looked at some models today. Hopefully the Euro/EPS show something similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 53 in Miami, not bad... On a Par 5 dogleg (like Fla) that typically would be 33 up here (lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I guess I'm just not much of one for a step down pattern. To me, step down patterns just burn time and you get little in return.I never understand the term "burning" time or wasting cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Maybe we shouldn't bet, this ain't bad, LoL :-). http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_18gfs610.gif I probably should have looked at some models today. Hopefully the Euro/EPS show something similar. I bet you like the January 22, 2009 analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Maybe we shouldn't bet, this ain't bad, LoL :-). http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_18gfs610.gif I probably should have looked at some models today. Hopefully the Euro/EPS show something similar. It seems I've already won, then. But, that CPC map is a little beyond my 5-day window of request. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 still need to buckle the jet somehow. And the cold in Canada will slowly modify once we lose the epo since it's of Siberian origin. The jet will buckle at some point; don't worry about that. Let's just get Canada cold first and worry about it modifying later. That's where I'm at right now anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I'm not going to panic over the Euro Weeklies, though... Another nice cold rain on tap at the moment. Very nice 40-degree weather with heavy drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Anyone want to hazard a guess as to the % of major ATL SN/IP/ZR since 1950 with BOTH a +NAO and +AO? PS: No Ed McMahoning allowed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Anyone want to hazard a guess as to the % of major ATL SN/IP/ZR since 1950 with BOTH a +NAO and +AO? 43.877% edit: to your ps..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 No brainer. 78.9654 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 88.1% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 88.1% I'm changing your name from Mac to Ed McMahon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Anyone want to hazard a guess as to the % of major ATL SN/IP/ZR since 1950 with BOTH a +NAO and +AO? PS: No Ed McMahoning allowed. 55% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Anyone want to hazard a guess as to the % of major ATL SN/IP/ZR since 1950 with BOTH a +NAO and +AO? PS: No Ed McMahoning allowed. 28% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I'm changing your name from Mac to Ed McMahon. Swear on all the fish that swim, I just threw it out there , thought percentages would be higher than most would think and who doesn't like Dale Jr? I swear , no cheats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Swear on all the fish that swim, I just threw it out there , thought percentages would be higher than most would think and who doesn't like Dale Jr? I swear , no cheats! Mac, No you misunderstood. "Ed McMahoning" means intentionally guessing way too high or way too low so as to make the true answer anticlimactic. He used to do this to Carson all the time when Carson would ask a Q with a surprising answer. Anyone else old enough to remember this lol? You're actually in last place lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Anyone want to hazard a guess as to the % of major ATL SN/IP/ZR since 1950 with BOTH a +NAO and +AO? PS: No Ed McMahoning allowed. 26.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Mac, No you misunderstood. "Ed McMahoning" means intentionally guessing way too high or way too low so as to make the true answer anticlimactic. He used to do this to Carson all the time when Carson would ask a Q with a surprising answer. Anyone else old enough to remember this lol? You're actually in last place lmao My bad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 78% Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 This might be of interest. Mean NAO by month since 1950: The data was gathered from here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table I hope I didn't **** it up in SAS somehow. EDIT: And the medians: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Winner: tnwxnut's 28%!! Congrats! Answer 31% Honorable mention to metwannabe's 26.7%, who was in 2nd Edit: I was going to say that 31% is pretty respectable considering the horrible reputation of the evil +NAO and +AO, but the Ed McMahoning here has ruined the surprise. 31% must seem anticlimactic vs some of these guesses. :( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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