Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread II

[Cold Rain]

I probably caused all the confusion because I thought they were two separate things.

Burger, a Modoki Niño is the LEAST of our confusion today!

[burgertime]

PV looks more impressive on the 18z GFS out to 156. 

[burgertime]

18z not looking bad in the LR.....I have no scientific reasoning to back this up but it also looks like it's struggling to figure out a colder pattern. 

[GlaringSun]

That pesky Western ridge is still too far east for the PV to sink down south... Atleast ATL gets below-freezing temps during a few of the nights, so it doesn't look that bad.

[packbacker]

NE crew saying weeklies has has +PNA but SE ridge, +NAO. We are toast with a +NAO, IMO, oh well. Barely looked at models the past couple of days, not really any point.

[GaWx]

Euro weeklies out: hint. I've got a brand new project. I'm going on a hunt for major ATL winter storms in the past when there were both a solid +NAO and a Bermuda high.

[packbacker]

Euro weeklies out: hint. I've got a brand new project. I'm going on a hunt for major ATL winter storms in the past when there were both a solid +NAO and a Bermuda high.

LOL, atleast this winter was a quick death.

[pcbjr]

Euro weeklies out: hint. I've got a brand new project. I'm going on a hunt for major ATL winter storms in the past when there were both a solid +NAO and a Bermuda high.

 Simplify - search for a winter that sucked and looked like it would continue and give us a little hope ...

 

[packbacker]

I thought this winter may bust on the snow dept, dry cold, just missing out here and there but I never thought it would be due to a SE ridge in a nino/+PDO, got to be a first. Oh well, maybe next year will surprise us when we have a Nina/-PDO.

[Cold Rain]

I thought this winter may bust on the snow dept, dry cold, just missing out here and there but I never thought it would be due to a SE ridge in a nino/+PDO, got to be a first. Oh well, maybe next year will surprise us when we have a Nina/-PDO.

That'll be awesome because them, we'll have a niño/+PDO lag!

[Bob Chill]

Euro weeklies out: hint. I've got a brand new project. I'm going on a hunt for major ATL winter storms in the past when there were both a solid +NAO and a Bermuda high.

Are you trying to freak out your subforum? haha

I thought they looked fine. Solid -EPO, and mean trough axis centered over gl/ohv for weeks 3-4. PV is basically static just north of hudson almost the entire run be we both know that's not how it works. It looks more like a +pna/-epo/+nao through weeks 3-4. I didn't see a se ridge. At least not one like a big trough out west and 820dm ridge over the bahamas like we have right now.

[packbacker]

Are you trying to freak out your subforum? haha

I thought they looked fine. Solid -EPO, and mean trough axis centered over gl/ohv for weeks 3-4. PV is basically static just north of hudson almost the entire run be we both know that's not how it works. It looks more like a +pna/-epo/+nao through weeks 3-4. I didn't see a se ridge. At least not one like a big trough out west and 820dm ridge over the bahamas like we have right now.

Posted this to Ji's response....

Temp wise they are a torch for the entire run for the entire east coast. Same crap as now, all the cold is in the west, higher heights along the east coast.

Edit: I know you guys don't worry what the temps show but i do :-).

[deltadog03]

 The video will have more on your forecast for the next few days and the 7 day. That part of the video is the short forecast, and will stop around 1:35-1:40. If you want to continue on, we will talk about the forecast, but go into more detail with the models. I will show the GFS, and talk about the EURO as well. Is the pattern changing, and will it produce anything? More on those thoughts with the trends in the models in the video. -Chris  *More shoutouts again...Yall are too funny!!**

 

https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons

[Bob Chill]

Posted this to Ji's response....

Temp wise they are a torch for the entire run for the entire east coast. Same crap as now, all the cold is in the west, higher heights along the east coast.

Edit: I know you guys don't worry what the temps show but i do :-).

I promise you that if that height pattern weeks 3-4 verifies, Canada will remain below normal coast to coast with frequent dumpings into the conus. No block means alternating cold/relax but by no means is it a torch anywhere east of the rockies.

[packbacker]

I promise you that if that height pattern weeks 3-4 verifies, Canada will remain below normal coast to coast with frequent dumpings into the conus. No block means alternating cold/relax but by no means is it a torch anywhere east of the rockies.

Who do you use? WB has both the 5 day means and each day. I agree the 5h patterns shows a +PNA'ish pattern, with some trough in central/east US, but the temps are very warm for the east. I don't look at them and say wheew, that looks promising, I look at them and say there is a ridge in the east that holds back the cold, just like now, with a big ++NAO. The weeklies have shown cold temps in previous winters that verified, like last winter. I hope I am wrong but I dont see that as a snowy pattern for the SE, you guys and north will have a fighting chance.

[Cold Rain]

Who do you use? WB has both the 5 day means and each day. I agree the 5h patterns shows a +PNA'ish pattern, with some trough in central/east US, but the temps are very warm for the east. I don't look at them and say wheew, that looks promising, I look at them and say there is a ridge in the east that holds back the cold, just like now, with a big ++NAO. The weeklies have shown cold temps in previous winters that verified, like last winter. I hope I am wrong but I dont see that as a snowy pattern for the SE, you guys and north will have a fighting chance.

THESE pretzels are making ME thirsty!!

[packbacker]

THESE pretzels are making ME thirsty!!

I will take the under on 1" of snow in Jan. Any takers.

[BullCityWx]

That cold shot at Day 10 is really interesting. -10 at the 850 level at RDU, -6 at CLT,-3 at GSP, +2 at ATL. 

[BullCityWx]

I will take the under on 1" of snow in Jan. Any takers.

 

That is a suckers bet if you bet over. 

[Cold Rain]

I will take the under on 1" of snow in Jan. Any takers.

Absolutely not. You will get more than 1" of snow no question.

[metwannabe]

Lol the gospel weeklies.....love them

[JoMo]

Who do you use? WB has both the 5 day means and each day. I agree the 5h patterns shows a +PNA'ish pattern, with some trough in central/east US, but the temps are very warm for the east. I don't look at them and say wheew, that looks promising, I look at them and say there is a ridge in the east that holds back the cold, just like now, with a big ++NAO. The weeklies have shown cold temps in previous winters that verified, like last winter. I hope I am wrong but I dont see that as a snowy pattern for the SE, you guys and north will have a fighting chance.

 

The control run temps at 850mb does show the alternating cold/warm and Canada staying colder than normal. It also shows no 'winter' storms of significance that far south, so you're probably right. Kind of looks like the classic... cool/cold and dry, followed by warmth and possibly wet as storms pass to the north. Awful look for winter weather lovers down there.

[Bob Chill]

Ah, I think we're arguing about 2 different things Pack. It's not an easy cold snowy look. But there are no signs of returning to a Pac jet disaster. I don't see a strong -pna either. When I see a -epo and higher heights in western Canada and the pv near hudson I'm comfortable that chances will remain available.

All of this will be moot once the strat gets nuked and Dr Cohen is saved over the next 10 days. Ops are going to drop the hammer before ens and weeklies.

[Cold Rain]

If you have a very cold Canada, it is well within the realm of possibility for a winter threat to arise at any time.

[max100]

That cold shot at Day 10 is really interesting. -10 at the 850 level at RDU, -6 at CLT,-3 at GSP, +2 at ATL.

I wouldn't take any of that to the bank.

[BullCityWx]

I wouldn't take any of that to the bank.

 

Too late. Cold rain took that check and cashed it. 

[LithiaWx]

If you have a very cold Canada, it is well within the realm of possibility for a winter threat to arise at any time.

 

I like this pattern better than the last one for that reason.  JMO but it seems like a shift now would have a higher chance of giving snow to the SE than the a shift during the last pattern we were in. 

[calculus1]

I will take the under on 1" of snow in Jan. Any takers.

 

I'll totally take that bet.  1" is a push?  And, I'm using MBY for measurements and you can use yours (or Metal's, if you'd rather).

[BullCityWx]

I'll totally take that bet.  1" is a push?  And, I'm using MBY for measurements and you can use yours (or Metal's, if you'd rather).

 

Yeah but YBY and Pack's BY is a much different thing. 

[packbacker]

Ah, I think we're arguing about 2 different things Pack. It's not an easy cold snowy look. But there are no signs of returning to a Pac jet disaster. I don't see a strong -pna either. When I see a -epo and higher heights in western Canada and the pv near hudson I'm comfortable that chances will remain available.

All of this will be moot once the strat gets nuked and Dr Cohen is saved over the next 10 days. Ops are going to drop the hammer before ens and weeklies.

Agreed, it's not the Dec pattern repeat but for us it's hard to get snow in good patterns. If I were in the MA I would probably shrug my shoulders at that run, not that the weeklies should be taken verbatim. But still no blocking of any kind in sight. The SSW is interesting the Euro is most aggressive but still doesn't hint at any blocking. I know it may take some time so will see if in the next 7-10 days the models can start atleast showing blocking in fantasy range.

For us, if we get a couple events over a 10 day period in Feb it will be an Ok winter.