Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 You guys should like the 12z euro ens run d7-10. Ridge out west showing stronger than 0z. Mean 0c 850 line pushing further south than previous run. PV is flexing a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Here's an interesting tidbit. All of ATL's six major ZR's since 1974 have been when the MJO was within the COD! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 You guys should like the 12z euro ens run d7-10. Ridge out west showing stronger than 0z. Mean 0c 850 line pushing further south than previous run. PV is flexing a bit more. After looking at the ensembles, I hope it's the start of a trend with those features. If it doesn't shear out the energy in the southwest, leaving a piece to rot off the BAJA, then we could have our first threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 I agree models had it flexing like a week ago and it didn't happen this week. Now it's hiding back behind Cuba on the models. Underlying problem has been no real transport of cold air. I was hoping with the cold west look we could luck out with a weak ridge....but it's looking like on the models the "bleeding cold" is going to go away as well. I agree, the underlying issue is the models (especially the ECMWF suite) have incessantly tried to over amplify the pattern in the medium range & of course the ECMWF's bias to drag its feet in the southwestern US is also another issue that likely projected onto it's ensembles as well... Of course you also have to consider in a strong +PDO (5th strongest SON tri-monthly in JISAO) combined w/ some help from the Equatorial Pacific) the longevity of the SE US ridge will be severely limited... December global SST regression +PDO The upcoming temperature pattern in the 6-10 as it stands is closely following the Warm Neutral-Weak/Modoki El Nino US temperature composites for January... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 After looking at the ensembles, I hope it's the start of a trend with those features. If it doesn't shear out the energy in the southwest, leaving a piece to rot off the BAJA, then we could have our first threat. With no block it will be a big push and relax. I think your best chance in the se is during the relax. At least a good portion of the area would have temps at the surface and midlevels that would support some frozen precip. Trend is slowly getting colder instead of the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Here's an interesting tidbit. All of ATL's six major ZR's since 1974 have been when the MJO was within the COD! Do you have the dates of those events? I would like to take a look at the equatorial VP & hovmollers preceding & during those storms & see if CCKW variance is still evident Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Do you have the dates of those events? I would like to take a look at the equatorial VP & hovmollers preceding & during those storms & see if CCKW variance is still evident ATL: major ZR's since 1974: all when the MJO was within the COD 2/6-7/1979 1/22-23/2000 1/28-30/2000 1/28-9/2005 12/14-5/2005 2/12/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 With no block it will be a big push and relax. I think your best chance in the se is during the relax. At least a good portion of the area would have temps at the surface and midlevels that would support some frozen precip. Trend is slowly getting colder instead of the other way around. The European OP LR had a -NAO signature, but the ensembles show a healthy +NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 The upcoming temperature pattern in the 6-10 as it stands is closely following the Warm Neutral-Weak/Modoki El Nino US temperature composites for January... The problem is that map might change in a few days . I thought all indications pointed towards less of a Modoki El Nino and more towards a weak El Nino? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 The European OP LR had a -NAO signature, but the ensembles show a healthy +NAO Considering how long it's been since a real -nao has developed, it's best to assume it isn't coming soon. It's also a volatile index and inherently difficult to predict at longer leads. With the ao showing no signs of going - for the foreseeable future, we should just focus on what "can" happen in progressive flow. +pna/-epo can deliver a small to moderate event with a mixed bag of ptypes. I'm a SSW skeptic but profess no skill. I've been around long enough on the forums to know that when it becomes a focus it means things aren't going well. There have been many false signals through the years as well. I suppose the upcoming period is a bit more interesting because it is trending better and the onset is at relatively short lead. Fingers crossed but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Considering how long it's been since a real -nao has developed, it's best to assume it isn't coming soon. It's also a volatile index and inherently difficult to predict at longer leads. With the ao showing no signs of going - for the foreseeable future, we should just focus on what "can" happen in progressive flow. +pna/-epo can deliver a small to moderate event with a mixed bag of ptypes. I'm a SSW skeptic but profess no skill. I've been around long enough on the forums to know that when it becomes a focus it means things aren't going well. There have been many false signals through the years as well. I suppose the upcoming period is a bit more interesting because it is trending better and the onset is at relatively short lead. Fingers crossed but who knows. Nasty ice from parts of the SE northward. :/ Better chances as you go north of course. I don't think we're gonna escape one this year.. at least one as bad as last year.. ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Considering how long it's been since a real -nao has developed, it's best to assume it isn't coming soon. It's also a volatile index and inherently difficult to predict at longer leads. With the ao showing no signs of going - for the foreseeable future, we should just focus on what "can" happen in progressive flow. +pna/-epo can deliver a small to moderate event with a mixed bag of ptypes. I'm a SSW skeptic but profess no skill. I've been around long enough on the forums to know that when it becomes a focus it means things aren't going well. There have been many false signals through the years as well. I suppose the upcoming period is a bit more interesting because it is trending better and the onset is at relatively short lead. Fingers crossed but who knows. It's painful seeing the lack of a -AO in any of the ensembles, not even close. I have given up on seeing a -NAO in my lifetime. I know the weeklies have been struggling but for the love of pete can it please show blocking by week 4. I know it won't be right but even so. Let's face it, all of our snowy analogs had -AO Jan. All the the non-snowy analogs had a +AO, we can continue to ignore that and say Feb will be better but... I am not giving up, but come mid-Jan if there is still no signs of a -AO the writing may be on the wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 It's painful seeing the lack of a -AO in any of the ensembles, not even close. I have given up on seeing a -NAO in my lifetime. I know the weeklies have been struggling but for the love of pete can it please show blocking by week 4. I know it won't be right but even so. Let's face it, all of our snowy analogs had -AO Jan. All the the non-snowy analogs had a +AO, we can continue to ignore that and say Feb will be better but... I am not giving up, but come mid-Jan if there is still no signs of a -AO the writing may be on the wall. I can't say I disagree with this, but there is some hope at least. Joe D'Aleo seems to think the current SSW will flip the AO in the coming couple of weeks. Will be a good test I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 I can't say I disagree with this, but there is some hope at least. Joe D'Aleo seems to think the current SSW will flip the AO in the coming couple of weeks. Will be a good test I suppose.The same SSW we have heard about for over a month....That's not a shot at you . just seems like we have been chasing this SSW for ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 The same SSW we have heard about for over a month.... Big difference with this one. The event itself is happening now. The only question to me is the effects after it's done its thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 The problem is that map might change in a few days . I thought all indications pointed towards less of a Modoki El Nino and more towards a weak El Nino? First bolded........that is correct....second bolded......that was sooooo a couple of weeks ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 The problem is that map might change in a few days . I thought all indications pointed towards less of a Modoki El Nino and more towards a weak El Nino? It has been a weak Nino. Can't a weak Nino also be a Modoki? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Big difference with this one. The event itself is happening now. The only question to me is the effects after it's done its thing. Do models take into consideration a SSW event ??? That may be a stupid question but its an honest one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Do models take into consideration a SSW event ??? That may be a stupid question but its an honest one I would think something like that would be hard to incorporate into modeling since they are so elusive and schizophrenic, but I could be wrong. I don't really know the answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 It's painful seeing the lack of a -AO in any of the ensembles, not even close. I have given up on seeing a -NAO in my lifetime. I know the weeklies have been struggling but for the love of pete can it please show blocking by week 4. I know it won't be right but even so. Let's face it, all of our snowy analogs had -AO Jan. All the the non-snowy analogs had a +AO, we can continue to ignore that and say Feb will be better but... I am not giving up, but come mid-Jan if there is still no signs of a -AO the writing may be on the wall. Well on the plus side today's run was the first time it dove negative with the AO which should be apparent just looking at the N Hemi map....so, still undecided on that one...we'll probably see the trends in the OP runs while the ensembles play catchup and you see gradual changes in the positioning of some members and the means on the ensembles...which is expected. I'm paying close attention of the Euro around the 7th-10th and not so much the GFS as I think it's garbage in this time frame and really the map looks like crap. As someone mentioned the ensembles were indeed an improvement, squashing the SE ridge slightly and had greater + anomalies in the west...aka stronger ridge. I could really see this evolving into a great pattern for the SE but I'm not willing to put everything on it. You can see slight neutral to negative AO's in the LR on most models, specially OPs, recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 It has been a weak Nino. Can't a weak Nino also be a Modoki? Modoki is focused more central pacific instead of equatorial east pacific...so they are different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 It's painful seeing the lack of a -AO in any of the ensembles, not even close. I have given up on seeing a -NAO in my lifetime. I know the weeklies have been struggling but for the love of pete can it please show blocking by week 4. I know it won't be right but even so. Let's face it, all of our snowy analogs had -AO Jan. All the the non-snowy analogs had a +AO, we can continue to ignore that and say Feb will be better but... I am not giving up, but come mid-Jan if there is still no signs of a -AO the writing may be on the wall. It's funny sometimes how it all works out. Long range stuff is basically just hedging based on all available data at the time. But there is always plenty of risk of an unforeseen wildcard that can overwhelm. It will happen plenty more in the future because we are far away from a smoking gun for long lead forecasting. When the SAI/SCE/OPI works out, it looks brilliant. IF (and it's a big if) the AO does flip negative late Jan/early Feb, do we consider it a success? I personally won't because if we go + for Dec/Jan it's a bust considering how compelling this year's data was to close Oct. Things went wrong. Having a -AO only in Feb is pretty garden variety. It can happen any year regardless of data in the fall. I mostly conceded the big winter once Dec flopped. If it was just a flop in my back yard but not those around me maybe I would be more encouraged. But it flopped everywhere in the eastern half of the conus except northern New England. Now we are all still collectively chasing any event and we're moving into January. The personality of this winter has shown it's hand to some extent. I don't have high hopes for Jan but that can change. I do know this, whoever gets the first widespread warning level event in the east is going to breath a massive sigh of relief. It has to happen to someone eventually right? Right?!? lol ETA: If the SSW actually produces a -AO during by the 2-3rd week of Jan and runs one of the longer duration 45-60 day periods like it has in years past, I would consider it a partial success. I'm skeptical but pretty curious because the strat maps look pretty and we're only talking 5 days down the road and not 15. Having a virtual dud up and down the east for the first 6 weeks of met winter stings. No two ways around it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 It's funny sometimes how it all works out. Long range stuff is basically just hedging based on all available data at the time. But there is always plenty of risk of an unforeseen wildcard that can overwhelm. It will happen plenty more in the future because we are far away from a smoking gun for long lead forecasting. When the SAI/SCE/OPI works out, it looks brilliant. IF (and it's a big if) the AO does flip negative late Jan/early Feb, do we consider it a success? I personally won't because if we go + for Dec/Jan it's a bust considering how compelling this year's data was to close Oct. Things went wrong. Having a -AO only in Feb is pretty garden variety. It can happen any year regardless of data in the fall. I mostly conceded the big winter once Dec flopped. If it was just a flop in my back yard but not those around me maybe I would be more encouraged. But it flopped everywhere in the eastern half of the conus except northern New England. Now we are all still collectively chasing any event and we're moving into January. The personality of this winter has shown it's hand to some extent. I don't have high hopes for Jan but that can change. I do know this, whoever gets the first widespread warning level event in the east is going to breath a massive sigh of relief. It has to happen to someone eventually right? Right?!? lol Great post Bob! Still a lot of winter left but I feel the same about the ao. If we have only one month negative then it is a bust. One of my worries is that we get into March and then everything falls in line but to late for most. I am very disappointed so far with the SAI right know. Also about that winter storm it will come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Modoki is focused more central pacific instead of equatorial east pacific...so they are different. But can't you have a weak Modoki Niño since weak can be centered in the central Pacific? I didn't think that having a Modoki said anything about strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 But can't you have a weak Modoki Niño since weak can be centered in the central Pacific? I didn't think that having a Modoki said anything about strength. That is my understanding as well. Modoki only speaks to where the + are centered, not strength. Did you see the 12z Euro take out the PV? It was a thing of beauty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 That is my understanding as well. Modoki only speaks to where the + are centered, not strength. Did you see the 12z Euro take out the PV? It was a thing of beauty. SSW ftw? That was quick. ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 But can't you have a weak Modoki Niño since weak can be centered in the central Pacific? I didn't think that having a Modoki said anything about strength. That is my understanding as well. Modoki only speaks to where the + are centered, not strength. Did you see the 12z Euro take out the PV? It was a thing of beauty. Oops! I read the question wrong...lol Sorry Larry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 SSW ftw? That was quick. ;) Well, I have no idea what it means to the modeling going forward or if it makes any difference to the sensible weather. When looking at the 30mb level, it attacks it continuously, and splits around hour 72. It continues to warm over the majority of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 With no block it will be a big push and relax. I think your best chance in the se is during the relax. At least a good portion of the area would have temps at the surface and midlevels that would support some frozen precip. Trend is slowly getting colder instead of the other way around. Lol, people can nit pick the crap out of models, and indices, and this and that and make all the pronouncements they want, but the fact is that winter is just beginning and unless we are in for a heck of an anomalous ride, it is going to trend colder, at least than it was today Welcome to the weather coaster. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 But can't you have a weak Modoki Niño since weak can be centered in the central Pacific? I didn't think that having a Modoki said anything about strength. Oops! I read the question wrong...lol Sorry Larry I probably caused all the confusion because I thought they were two separate things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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