metwannabe Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Doesn't matter. I was just mentioning how drastic of a change it was and for that time period, it's expected. Ridge and the cold near the Hudson was nearly non-existent on the 00z. It's a huge change. It's the overall picture. Ridge placement does matter . And there was a ridge out west on the 00z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Let's get some agreement on ridging I'm the LR and then worry about placement for storm threats. We need to get some cold weather up in here! it's all bottled up in Canada and the northern tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Ridge placement does matter . And there was a ridge out west on the 00z run lol yes, ridge placement does matter...that's not what I meant. The ridge will go east and west with runs, I'm talking about how large the AK block gets and how the ridge links up with that. The ridge on the 12z is notably taller and not as wide...so it doesn't matter the placement at this point, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 The -PNA and the SE ridge have been and will continue to be the death knell for snow chances, those two factors equal no snow. Until we see a major shift it's not going to do anything snow wise in the SE.. I'd sure like to see the CFS and other models to not have it flexing the SE ridge and a -PNA on virtually every run. What southeast ridge? It's been nonexistent thus far this winter & has remained a modeled-fantasy @ best... In fact, the heights have been relatively lower in & around the SE US and off our coast, reminiscent of warm PDO phase... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 216 00z 192 12z Looks very similar Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 lol yes, ridge placement does matter...that's not what I meant. The ridge will go east and west with runs, I'm talking about how large the AK block gets and how the ridge links up with that. The ridge on the 12z is notably taller and not as wide...so it doesn't matter the placement at this point, I got ya man. I misunderstood what you were saying .my fault Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 The -PNA and the SE ridge have been and will continue to be the death knell for snow chances, those two factors equal no snow. Until we see a major shift it's not going to do anything snow wise in the SE.. I'd sure like to see the CFS and other models to not have it flexing the SE ridge and a -PNA on virtually every run. Runs today have the SE ridge back behind Cuba almost. All the cold is mainly staying bottled up in Canada though. Once the PV is swinging over and down it's having no major problem making it past the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Check out the 12z Euro VS the 12z GFS.....which one looks better to you guys? Euro has something here. 1) Lets see what the mean looks like, it should look quite nice compared to the 00z means 2) lets see what the 00z holds tonight...but I like this, considering it's bring the hammer down on the SE ridge and allowing the cold to come, not to mention the block over the top and the ridge, rather too east or not, is taller and looking nice. The models obviously disagree with this time period 7-10th which I believe is still very well in-game for climo favored areas for the SE. GFS 12z 216hr ECMWF 12z 216hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 If the western ridge was like 200 miles west of where it is on the Euro for 192-240, it looks like the cold air would most likely go down even further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Check out the 12z Euro VS the 12z GFS.....which one looks better to you guys? Euro has something here. 1) Lets see what the mean looks like, it should look quite nice compared to the 00z means 2) lets see what the 00z holds tonight...but I like this, considering it's bring the hammer down on the SE ridge and allowing the cold to come, not to mention the block over the top and the ridge, rather too east or not, is taller and looking nice. The models obviously disagree with this time period 7-10th which I believe is still very well in-game for climo favored areas for the SE. GFS 12z 216hr The things they seem to agree on is the massive blocking over the top, the cold in southeast Canada and some variation of ridging out west. All in all, not a bad look. I would think there would be a chance or two for some possible if that type of look were to hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Check out the 12z Euro VS the 12z GFS.....which one looks better to you guys? Euro has something here. 1) Lets see what the mean looks like, it should look quite nice compared to the 00z means 2) lets see what the 00z holds tonight...but I like this, considering it's bring the hammer down on the SE ridge and allowing the cold to come, not to mention the block over the top and the ridge, rather too east or not, is taller and looking nice. The models obviously disagree with this time period 7-10th which I believe is still very well in-game for climo favored areas for the SE. GFS 12z 216hr ECMWF 12z 216hr Don't tease me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 216 on the Euro does not look that bad. I will take that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 I will never jump off the cliff until its 4th and 40 and its mid MAR, but lets all be honest....The pattern looks like HELL for the SE. EVERYTHING looks that way. Here is what I am seriously thinking about...Another really smart poster on another board has posted this map off all kinds of Nino patterns...DEC all SUCKED! JAN was a wash. So, We might have to PUNT the beginning and mid portion of JAN and hang on tight for the latter half of JAN and all of FEB. FEB was amaaaaazing on everyone of his maps. We will have to see, but I am not nearly as confident we see much. The ridge is not always a bad thing in winter, but it is right now with everything against us. So, I would say we are on 4th down, not ready to punt the NEXT 2 WEEKS, but IMO I am close. Winter will get cranking at some point, but it looks like it will be all backloaded. Just my .02c Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Don't tease me Those do look very similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Don't tease me Webber, The LR Euro is almost a "dead ringer" match for the 5H look preceding a major snow/ice event from overrunning............ The problem isn't the look but rather that it's always the LR it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 What southeast ridge? It's been nonexistent thus far this winter & has remained a modeled-fantasy @ best... In fact, the heights have been relatively lower in & around the SE US and off our coast, reminiscent of warm PDO phase... Agree to disagree, taking the entire month of December will dampen any recent signal of a SE ridge. I think it has started to poke around a bit te last week or two and it is coming and going on modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Webber, The LR Euro is almost a "dead ringer" match for the 5H look preceding a major snow/ice event from overrunning............ The problem isn't the look but rather that it's always the LR it seems. Not to mention the models can't get their act straight in the LR. Just a few days ago it appeared that the cold west look would stick around for two weeks or so. Now it's looking like just a few days. I want to say that's abnormal but maybe it's not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Webber, The LR Euro is almost a "dead ringer" match for the 5H look preceding a major snow/ice event from overrunning............ The problem isn't the look but rather that it's always the LR it seems. It's very clear we're going to have the general synoptic pattern we want for wintry weather in the southern tier, but it's only step 1 to getting a big one around here, we need a smorgasbord of other variables to cooperate, however getting the right pattern is a huge step in of itself & combined w/ other favorable variables such as the MJO entering the Pacific within the next few weeks (it's already at the maritime continent & another CCKW that will be in the vicinity of the western Indian Ocean/Africa by this time, the initial signs are conducive, but we are a long ways out & as you may suspect a lot can & will change from now until then... At least we have something that may be fixing to come onto the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 It's very clear we're going to have the general synoptic pattern we want for wintry weather in the southern tier, but it's only step 1 to getting a big one around here, we need a smorgasbord of other variables to cooperate, however getting the right pattern is a huge step in of itself & combined w/ other favorable variables such as the MJO entering the Pacific within the next few weeks (it's already at the maritime continent & another CCKW that will be in the vicinity of the western Indian Ocean/Africa by this time, the initial signs are conducive, but we are a long ways out & as you may suspect a lot can & will change from now until then... At least we have something that may be fixing to come onto the radar. I have noticed the MJO forecast isn't nearly as robust as before and most modeling is now if of fairly low amplitude through phases 4,5,6. It might not be as big a factor as some were thinking just a few days ago IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Agree to disagree, taking the entire month of December will dampen any recent signal of a SE ridge. I think it has started to poke around a bit te last week or two and it is coming and going on modeling. Lol, just because it was relatively mild doesn't mean the SE US ridge has been here... Ok, so obviously taking the averaged pattern over the last month wasn't enough for you. The mean center of the ridge even over the last week is clearly over southeastern Canada and the north Atlantic, not the SE US. Again I ask what southeast ridge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Lol, just because it was relatively mild doesn't mean the SE US ridge has been here... Ok, so obviously taking the averaged pattern over the last month wasn't enough for you. The mean center of the ridge even over the last week is clearly over southeastern Canada and the north Atlantic, not the SE US. Again I ask what southeast ridge? I agree models had it flexing like a week ago and it didn't happen this week. Now it's hiding back behind Cuba on the models. Underlying problem has been no real transport of cold air. I was hoping with the cold west look we could luck out with a weak ridge....but it's looking like on the models the "bleeding cold" is going to go away as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Lol, just because it was relatively mild doesn't mean the SE US ridge has been here... Ok, so obviously taking the averaged pattern over the last month wasn't enough for you. The mean center of the ridge even over the last week is clearly over southeastern Canada and the north Atlantic, not the SE US. Again I ask what southeast ridge? Again, we agree to disagree. I don't see it your way. The SE ridge has poked around from time to time over the last couple of weeks. It hasn't been sustained but it has been there. 500mb heights have gone over 580 more than a few times recently and are forecast to go back around or above that number again soon. Those are high heights for this time of year in my area. Also. I have seen the SE ridge on the models over the last week or two. Again, coming and going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 I have noticed the MJO forecast isn't nearly as robust as before and most modeling is now if of fairly low amplitude through phases 4,5,6. It might not be as big a factor as some were thinking just a few days ago IMO. This relatively elusive relationship b/t winter storms & the MJO is also a good reason why I started focusing my attention on the faster CCKW mode more so last winter... & a CCKW is well on its way to projecting onto the VP 200 in the 30-60E band... It will probably arrive by the 2nd week of January if not sooner... The MJO is still there (as evidenced by the twin cyclones straddling the equator in the eastern Indian Ocean, which is a classic Rossby Wave signature characteristically found in the wake (or to the west of the mean upward center of the MJO, (because we know the MJO propagates from west to east & it exhibits a mixed Kelvin-Rossby Wave structure, flanked by WWBs & twin cyclonic lower tropospheric gyres to its west (Rossby Wave structure) ) and anomalous zonal easterly winds to its east (Kelvin Wave structure ). Check out the near equatorial WWBs (Westerly Wind Bursts) being generated, wow. Thus, based on this information, we can assume that the MJO is likely to the east of the Equatorial Rossby Wave in the eastern Indian Ocean, which means the convectively enhanced phase of the MJO is currently located over the Maritime Continent (phases 4-5) and is nearing the Pacific... http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-276.85,3.50,398 This is confirmed by VPM & RMM diagrams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Again, we agree to disagree. I don't see it your way. The SE ridge has poked around from time to time over the last couple of weeks. It hasn't been sustained but it has been there. 500mb heights have gone over 580 more than a few times recently and are forecast to go back around or above that number again soon. Those are high heights for this time of year in my area. Also. I have seen the SE ridge on the models over the last week or two. Again, coming and going. Your point is entirely irrelevant, the SE US ridge is almost always a prevalent feature in the mean height field during winter even when the heights are below normal... The above normal heights being observed of late are not associated w/ the SE US ridge though, it's the region of high pressure over the north Atlantic & southeastern Canada that's causing this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Your point is entirely irrelevant, the SE US ridge is almost always a prevalent feature in the mean height field during winter even when the heights are below normal... The above normal heights being observed of late are not associated w/ the SE US ridge though, it's the region of high pressure over the north Atlantic & southeastern Canada that's causing this... I'm done with this discussion. I'm going to leave it at we agree to disagree (now saying that a third time) My original point which was railroaded by you was that snow chances are slim to none with a -PNA and SE ridge combo. That is a fact most people would agree with. If we can get rid of the "phantom" SE Ridge (going to leave it there and not engage with you further on the subject as we have differing opinions) then the chances go up but still suck with a crappy west coast setup like we have now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Again, we agree to disagree. I don't see it your way. The SE ridge has poked around from time to time over the last couple of weeks. It hasn't been sustained but it has been there. 500mb heights have gone over 580 more than a few times recently and are forecast to go back around or above that number again soon. Those are high heights for this time of year in my area. Also. I have seen the SE ridge on the models over the last week or two. Again, coming and going. 5800 dm is nothing to write home about... especially considering the mean heights in your area average around 5700 this time of the year anyway. That's not too far off from normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 I'm done with this discussion. I'm going to leave it at we agree to disagree (now saying that a third time) My original point which was railroaded by you was that snow chances are slim to none with a -PNA and SE ridge combo. That is a fact most people would agree with. If we can get rid of the "phantom" SE Ridge (going to leave it there and not engage with you further on the subject as we have differing opinions) then the chances go up but still suck with a crappy west coast setup like we have now. Ok, that's fine, but it would have been nice if you actually presented evidence of the SE US ridge's *anomalous* existence instead of erroneously referring back to the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 I agree models had it flexing like a week ago and it didn't happen this week. Now it's hiding back behind Cuba on the models. Underlying problem has been no real transport of cold air.I was hoping with the cold west look we could luck out with a weak ridge....but it's looking like on the models the "bleeding cold" is going to go away as well. Nail on the head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Nail on the head. That's why we haven't really torched as well. No transport of cold or warmth... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 That's why we haven't really torched as well. No transport of cold or warmth... That and plenty of clouds and Nina rains! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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