Shawn Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Yikes....https://twitter.com/wsi_energy/status/549588041992798208 I love how WSI is posting this image right before colder air is entering the united states. Winter is just a tad slow this year, it's coming for some. Hopefully the SE will get in on it before it's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Yikes.... https://twitter.com/wsi_energy/status/549588041992798208 Yikes for energy companies trying to make a dollar in December indeed. Not sure how much it will really speak for the winter overall. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Yikes.... https://twitter.com/wsi_energy/status/549588041992798208 Well at least everybody suffered. Misery enjoys company. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 @141 on the GFS it looks like to me the PV is in a much better position for a cold look. Starting to drop in the midwest at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Cold air incoming @156. Big change vs. 6z at the same time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 12z is similar to the 00z run from last WRT to next week but colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 The bad news on the GFS is the cold looks to be just in and out. Giant storm in the Great Lakes area with seasonal temps here. See where it goes after 200. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 The bad news on the GFS is the cold looks to be just in and out. Giant storm in the Great Lakes area with seasonal temps here. See where it goes after 200. How many times have we seen these giant GL storms modeled vs how many have actually happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 How many times have we seen these giant GL storms modeled vs how many have actually happened? lol they almost never do. I mean it drops some major energy out of Canada that gets into the US and immediately travels due east. It's not even like it digs and then spins up. Just a big clipper that never drifts south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Well the GFS in the LR comes back with a cold west look ....GFS PARA doesn't have a big GL storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Lol the GFS pumps a ridge , breaks it down in a two day period then pumps it right back up..... Ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Well the GFS in the LR comes back with a cold west look ....GFS PARA doesn't have a big GL storm. The old GFS has a tendency to love phasing things in from the NRN branch, its likely overdone up in the Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Wave 1 amplitude is increasing but forecasted to drop time_pres_WAVE1_MEAN_OND_NH_2014 (1).gif Heat flux is increasing and beginning a poleward push (bottom graph) fluxes (1).gif What sticks out to me is the zonal winds progged really low...wouldn't that make the PV extremely weak and accepting to a split? To me it seems like it's money it the bank the way everything looks on the modeling (Strat maps on GFS/Euro, etc), but SSW's are always hard to nail, whether or not people think it's strong enough/too week seems almost like a matter of opinion although some can argue either side for days. This is the first year I'm paying attention to it some I'm trying to learn, there's honestly not a lot of info on analysis out there to my surprise (journals/etc)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Just because you see a "ridge" it isn't a bad thing. Those ridges can sometimes end up with a battle vs cold air and someone can end up with a jackpot Winter storm. Not the worst look and doom like many think. Look at the HPs floating around. The deep south, its always nice to be a bit colder than shown, but other than that I'll take it going into mid-month. I agree with Jon. Exactly... We have the blocking exactly where we want it, over the North Pacific & Alaska. This kind of set-up forces undercutting and there will be a few systems that sneak underneath this ridge in the subtropical jet... The models don't seem to have the slightest idea about what to do w/ this energy in the southern branch, much of the guidance is erroneously trying to bury/stall it for several days into Mexico & the Baja Peninsula. We're walking a fine line here & it wouldn't take much at all to see dramatic changes in the output from the models (nothing vs a winter storm) down the road just based on the placement, intensity & juxtaposition of the energy that will be getting passed under the table into North America, aside from other parameters that will be generally conducive for something in the 2nd week of January... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 12 z GFS is a mess, 32 the lowest in Atlanta through the 16 day period. I give up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 I actually like the 12z GFS. Continues to look very promising in the LR for some kind of system at the day 11/12 range. I know we should not discuss storm details this far out but the below day 11/12 GFS depiction would scream ice storm for many. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_276_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=276&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141229+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 12 z GFS is a mess, 32 the lowest in Atlanta through the 16 day period. I give up. Para is significantly colder look, there are several highs scooting across the NE during the period with wedging down the apps...this period will be night and day colder compared to what you saw in mid to late December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 12z GFS wants to bring the severe weather to southern AL & MS this coming up weekend. Showing helicity around 300 with surface cape of around 1000 j/kg along the gulf areas of Mississippi. Might have a similar situation to what we saw on the 23rd last week. Dew points showing in the mid to upper 60's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 12 z GFS is a mess, 32 the lowest in Atlanta through the 16 day period. I give up.Snowstorm2011., is that you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Para is significantly colder look, there are several highs scooting across the NE during the period with wedging down the apps...this period will be night and day colder compared to what you saw in mid to late December. PARA was actually very close to a big dog just outside of 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 I haven't looked at 12z runs, but just looking at the big picture, I see some very simplistic trends heading into Jan in our favor without dissecting any late 500mb maps I wanted to go another route. First, looking at the CFSv2 anomalies, we can see the cold modeled for all of Jan continuing to increase in Canada...and while I've talked crap about the CFSv2 in the past, it's a crappy model IMO but one trend I DO see and have seen is the cold. We have a healthy snow pack over eastern Canada. And while the SE temps look bad check out the probabilities...it seems to be waffling back between 1) whether the SE will be above average all month and 2) how many states in the SE will be above average. The trends are not likely to save FL for the first half of Jan, but it may save the climo areas Last 3 runs of the Euro bring back a +PNA at the end/after the first week of Jan, supporting an idea of some looks at wintry action around the 8th-11th period. This is good in that, if we get any cold set up in place it's only option is to come SE...we should kill or weaken, the SE ridge if one is present at the time. You can see some members of the GEFS 06z sniffing this out around the 6th-7th as well, mean drowned out by the several high negative members, though. Again outside of the last few runs of the GEFS members, GFS/Euro OP, etc....we haven't really seen the look of a decent +PNA only that it may head neutral...(see orange line in Euro OP graph above) Though the CPC probability maps 8-14 days out aren't exactly accurate all the time, they're here, and the time period is of my interest (5th-11th) Climo areas once again normal for this time period aka no torch here (can't save Florida, though, but when can we unless we get a deep PV drop?) Given the fact that these aren't that accurate this far out just lends more of an idea that things can still change, and the N (Normal in this map) can indeed change to below normal as we get closer to this time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 at 198hr the OP Euro is coming in a lot better....+PNA tall, AK block wider and deeper, later in the run this is going to link up and cold is going to come into the SE deep after 200+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 at 198hr the OP Euro is coming in a lot better....+PNA tall, AK block wider and deeper, later in the run this is going to link up and cold is going to come into the SE deep after 200+ The western ridge placement is still too Far East on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 at 198hr the OP Euro is coming in a lot better....+PNA tall, AK block wider and deeper, later in the run this is going to link up and cold is going to come into the SE deep after 200+Same look since early December, 200+ looking good and cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 The western ridge placement is still too Far East on the euro I'll be interested to see the EPS...just looking at the surface map it looked better than last night and it looks like something could pop shortly after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Let's get some agreement on ridging I'm the LR and then worry about placement for storm threats. We need to get some cold weather up in here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 The -PNA and the SE ridge have been and will continue to be the death knell for snow chances, those two factors equal no snow. Until we see a major shift it's not going to do anything snow wise in the SE.. I'd sure like to see the CFS and other models to not have it flexing the SE ridge and a -PNA on virtually every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 The western ridge placement is still too Far East on the euro Doesn't matter. I was just mentioning how drastic of a change it was and for that time period, it's expected. Ridge and the cold near the Hudson was nearly non-existent on the 00z. It's a huge change. It's the overall picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 I'll be interested to see the EPS...just looking at the surface map it looked better than last night and it looks like something could pop shortly after that. I feel like there is always a shot at popping something. But what's modeled now is not a good set up. Funny Allen said the other day he was interested in the 9th-11th period....... Wonder how he feels now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Yeah, this is the wettest Nina I can ever remember! It's freakin' wonderful. I've gotten another 1.9 after the earlier 3.4 this week, after only .24 for the earlier part of the month. I'm telling you the cold is soon to arrive, with sleet in feet. The cold always noses around when the rains arrive. Early part of Jan is still on the table. Can't go by models that change from run to run.. can't sniff squirrel whizz.... got to look at climo, and climo says it's looking better each day now that Xmas has passed T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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