Shawn Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 The 06z GFS still had a storm with a pretty good track, t's just much warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Uhhhh - I can't be the only one seeing the eery similarity to last year, right? With how Jan looks to begin, the N/D/J time frame from a year ago compared to this year is actually quite familiar. Agreed,but I really hope we get some blocking the 2nd half of winter. The PV is getting destroyed on the Euro, if that doesn't give us a -AO down the road then this whole SSW/SAI/SCE is about as good a predictor as the squirrel that sees his shadow. The SE ridge is concerning, very concerning, it's been very persistent. We didn't deal with that at all last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 The para does get icy with that cutoff that finally comes out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 A little surprised the para isn't more icy with this look.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Hey guys, I'm back. Family was in town after Christmas so had those obligations to deal with. Euro was pretty "meh". Nothing special in the LR. Looks like I was def. wrong about Jan. 1....A few things, one moving to a more seasonal to above average pattern I worry we don't see a flip until at least the middle of the month. We've seen how these patterns tend to overstay their welcome both cold and mild vs. what the models show. The flip side of that is that this week much colder air will be making it's way down. Can it stick around just long enough to give a surprise? I've also said it before but I could be wrong about this, IRRC when the UK ends up with big time cold that usually does not bode well for us. They are currently in a huge cold spell. That is what has me worried the most moving forward.I'm alot worried! The cold in the uk, = normal/above for us, and takes weeks to shift! The snow in LA and Vegas, is just a kick in the sack! Definately cold dump in west! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 A little surprised the para isn't more icy with this look..That's a great placement for the high for cad, should be colder with all the cold in Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 A little surprised the para isn't more icy with this look.. Models never see the wedge strength beyond 72 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Agreed,but I really hope we get some blocking the 2nd half of winter. The PV is getting destroyed on the Euro, if that doesn't give us a -AO down the road then this whole SSW/SAI/SCE is about as good a predictor as the squirrel that sees his shadow. The SE ridge is concerning, very concerning, it's been very persistent. We didn't deal with that at all last winter. It is, although it seems like it was a constant model feature last winter as well, only never verifying. That might be a real thorn this time though. But so far, this season appears to be a carbon copy of the last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 It is, although it seems like it was a constant model feature last winter as well, only never verifying. That might be a real thorn this time though. But so far, this season appears to be a carbon copy of the last. It was and it was verifying up until around Jan 11th or so when the big cold kicked in and laid it to waste for the the rest of winter. It really is uncanny how close this year has been to last year. However I don't think the UK ever really went into the freezer last year but I could be wrong about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Agreed,but I really hope we get some blocking the 2nd half of winter. The PV is getting destroyed on the Euro, if that doesn't give us a -AO down the road then this whole SSW/SAI/SCE is about as good a predictor as the squirrel that sees his shadow. The SE ridge is concerning, very concerning, it's been very persistent. We didn't deal with that at all last winter. The SE US ridge has been non-existent up to this point in the winter (as is typical for +PDO pattern), the mean ridge has been centered well to our north over the northern tier of the US & southern Canada... Also keep in mind as Blizzardof96 mentioned we don't live at 500mb, the cross polar flow is going to overwhelm the pattern and lead to widespread cold across the US, even w/ above normal heights trying to hang on in the SE US... Looks very similar to those warm neutral-weak/modoki El Nino composites for January... It is, although it seems like it was a constant model feature last winter as well, only never verifying. That might be a real thorn this time though. But so far, this season appears to be a carbon copy of the last. No, not even close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Models never see the wedge strength beyond 72 hours A little surprised this Jan3/4 event is coming in flatter on that last couple of runs on the EPS/GFS-P. I thought for sure that would be a OH-V to a interior NE winter storm. It still probably will be, just interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 All this rain sucks. Of course it will turn colder after the precip is gone. Not cold enough for snow, but still. I hope this wet pattern keeps repeating every week and we finally get some real cold in here for something other than rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 The SE US ridge has been non-existent up to this point in the winter (as is typical for +PDO pattern), the mean ridge has been centered well to our north over the northern tier of the US & southern Canada... Also keep in mind as Blizzardof96 mentioned we don't live at 500mb, the cross polar flow is going to overwhelm the pattern and lead to widespread cold across the US, even w/ above normal heights trying to hang on in the SE US... Looks very similar to those warm neutral-weak/modoki El Nino composites for January... Good point, I should have noted it's been consistently modeled :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 No, not even close How's it not even a little close? November snow [check] Followed by a mild December [check] A January kick-off with a PV drop that goes well into the south [about to be a check] Granted, we didn't get as much rain during N/D of 2013. My "weather" has been strangely similar to last year's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 A little surprised this Jan3/4 event is coming in flatter on that last couple of runs on the EPS/GFS-P. I thought for sure that would be a OH-V to a interior NE winter storm. It still probably will be, just interesting. The trend the last 4-6 weeks has been weaker and flatter systems, often times the trend you see early in the season holds for a good part of the winter...we may see suppression or weaker systems being the rule this year due to the strong Pacific jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 All this rain sucks. Of course it will turn colder after the precip is gone. Not cold enough for snow, but still. I hope this wet pattern keeps repeating every week and we finally get some real cold in here for something other than rain. Yeah, this is the wettest Nina I can ever remember! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Euro says you can hang it up on that 1/9 threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Euro says you can hang it up on that 1/9 threatEuro can go hang itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Euro says you can hang it up on that 1/9 threat The, um, models are bad right now and not to be trusted....or something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Euro says you can hang it up on that 1/9 threat Will see, I am not ready to throw in the towel on that period (6-9th)...look at how much the Euro-EPS has changed for Jan 6th period. Just nuts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 How's it not even a little close? November snow [check] Followed by a mild December [check] A January kick-off with a PV drop that goes well into the south [about to be a check] Granted, we didn't get as much rain during N/D of 2013. My "weather" has been strangely similar to last year's. Your sensible weather may "seem" like it was close to last winter, but the overall pattern is nothing like last year (perhaps on the other hand the timing this winter gets going is similar (late January & especially Feb, and that's a reasonable assumption considering the behavior of El Nino/+ENSO winters to strike most frequently (at least in the SE US & on the E Coast) In Feb)... The North Pacific & western hemisphere in general thanks to the strong +PDO state has done a complete 180 w/ lower heights now being found over most of the N pac. This inversion in the height field over the North Pacific has huge implications on our AO state & even if you didn't understand the physical reasons why the N Pac is important, you could assume just based on last winter's performance in the opposite pattern that this NAM state will be much weaker this winter (i.e. a -AO)... Last December's 500mb This year's 500mb The behavior of the polar vortex this year & wave activity flux, etc. between this winter & last year is night & day... 100mb/45 day mean 45-75N heat eddy flux in last winter thru at least December is way lower than this year...We actually set records in this department in late November during that attempt at a SSWE, which didn't have much climatological support to begin w/ The size of the polar vortex this year is a joke compared to last winter... Temperatures over the arctic stratosphere are much warmer this year (as would be expected w/ +PDO, higher SAI/SCE, easterly QBO, etc) The zonal wind (lower= weaker polar night jet) is considerably lower than last year, overall conditions are appreciably more conducive for stratospheric warming (which is already underway) & an -AO regime unlike last winter... So, yeah it's nothing like last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Will see, I am not ready to throw in the towel on that period (6-9th)...look at how much the Euro-EPS has changed for Jan 6th period. Just nuts... Will see, I am not ready to throw in the towel on that period (6-9th)...look at how much the Euro-EPS has changed for Jan 6th period. Just nuts... A big reason for that is its liklely including the members that are amped on the system going up the coast...the general idea for beyond Day 8 is that the Se ridge is going to be out of the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 A big reason for that is its liklely including the members that are amped on the system going up the coast...the general idea for beyond Day 8 is that the Se ridge is going to be out of the areaare we going to reestablish the Aleutian Low like the euro ensembles hint at towards the end it the run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Your sensible weather may "seem" like it was close to last winter, but the overall pattern is nothing like last year (perhaps on the other hand the timing this winter gets going is similar (late January & especially Feb, and that's a reasonable assumption considering the behavior of El Nino/+ENSO winters to strike most frequently (at least in the SE US & on the E Coast) In Feb)... The North Pacific & western hemisphere in general thanks to the strong +PDO state has done a complete 180 w/ lower heights now being found over most of the N pac. This inversion in the height field over the North Pacific has huge implications on our AO state & even if you didn't understand the physical reasons why the N Pac is important, you could assume just based on last winter's performance in the opposite pattern that this NAM state will be much weaker this winter (i.e. a -AO)...etc, etc... Dang. When Webber answers...he friggin' answers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 The link below is showing sharp warming of anomalies continuing above the 10 mb level of the stratosphere. There was about a 4C anomaly warming just since yesterday's released map to ~+13 C at the warmest anomaly level of 1-2 mb. Watch to see how much warmer it gets over the next 3-5 days as this updates daily. If that prog that Mitchnick posted Saturday in the MidAtlantic forum and that I copied into this thread yesterday were to verify, I'd expect to see some brown colors (+28 to +32) at least near the 5 mb level within 3-5 days, which would make it a top 12 strong SSW since at least 1979 based on that criterion, alone. Let's see how much warmer it actually gets. Keep in mind that normals in those strat levels warm rather sharply in late Dec./early Jan. meaning absolute warming is actually a fair bit stronger than these anomaly warmings are showing. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_OND_NH_2014.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Will see, I am not ready to throw in the towel on that period (6-9th)...look at how much the Euro-EPS has changed for Jan 6th period. Just nuts...Yeah wow just look at where the center of the cold is...with the teleconnections heading favorable around the 5th or before from the last time I looked, this is a great trend in the ensemble mean for inside 200hrs. People shouldn't give up on the first week of Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Just because you see a "ridge" it isn't a bad thing. Those ridges can sometimes end up with a battle vs cold air and someone can end up with a jackpot Winter storm. Not the worst look and doom like many think. Look at the HPs floating around. The deep south, its always nice to be a bit colder than shown, but other than that I'll take it going into mid-month. I agree with Jon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Wave 1 amplitude is increasing but forecasted to drop Heat flux is increasing and beginning a poleward push (bottom graph) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Yikes.... https://twitter.com/wsi_energy/status/549588041992798208 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Steve, Thanks for posting that. Wave 1 typically peaks before the strat warming peaks based on looking at past SSW's and it is already very strong today. So, even if it has just about reached its peak, that would by no means mean that this SSW wouldn't be able to peak at very strong levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.