Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread II

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Mack,

You should but here is what I actually predicted:

1. One major ATL wintry precip. event and a nontrivial chance for two (much higher chance for two vs that for an average winter) possibly incl. ZR.

2. At least three measurable wintry precip. events possibly incl. ZR.

3. DJF averaging -3 or colder.

gonna be hard for DJF to average -3 or colder since Dec will end up +5 or close to it.

[GaWx]

gonna be hard for DJF to average -3 or colder since Dec will end up +5 or close to it.

 

I know that though it isn't impossible. That was my original prediction.

[mackerel_sky]

I know that though it isn't impossible. That was my original prediction.

Good job sticking to your guns! Many are waffling,I respect you for holding firm!

[SN_Lover]

^{I just realized this morning that a very strong SSW is imminent:}

 

^{http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44807-winter-2014-2015-medium-term-discussion/?p=3216533}

That's awesome, with the polar vortex being on our side. Maybe there is hope haha

[max100]

12Z GFS has 6 degrees at Atlanta Jan 7, 2015 with .38 of precip around the 9th...........

[Shawn]

Weak low around the 9th is perfect climo (the way it is tracking) for much of Ga (even southern), KCAE, Southern/Coastal SC, Central/eastern NC to see WInter weather.  Some Ice, Snow & Sleet based on temp profiles for many.

 

Way too far out to even pay much attention to though.  Lets just see if the cold is coming first.

[Jonesing for a chase]

The 6z also showed sufficient cold and a storm in the same period. This might be a time to look at for some type of storm (hopefully it's wintery). All we can hope for at this time is for the cold to establish itself at the day 7 period. This(cold) is something we can realistically track at this time. An actual storm(to track) will have to wait.[/quote

FWIW gfs para has a wintry mix in central NC verbatim about that time, I'm just glad to see another arctic air mass rolling in about that time, hopefully just further east

[dsaur]

Tony,

 I agree with you 1,000%, especially what I highlighted.

So with the actual conditions probably far colder in "Atlanta" for the month, your predictions should be completely intact, right?  I mean for a good comparison run why not use the data from the Experiment Station?  Being south, any bias would be toward the warmer, rather than say using Cartersville with might skew toward the cooler.  Do a control run for Griffin, and see how that compares to Atl. and what climo might then predict.  I know you have lots of time on your hands, now the moles aren't coming, and the ice cream is not so readily available, lol.  The Experiment Station is a huge field surrounded on all sides by a mill village, so the conditions aren't too dissimilar to the old airport I remember from the late 50s, which was a huge field with quonsit huts, and surrounded with mill sized housing.  T

[GaWx]

Weak low around the 9th is perfect climo (the way it is tracking) for much of Ga (even southern), KCAE, Southern/Coastal SC, Central/eastern NC to see WInter weather.  Some Ice, Snow & Sleet based on temp profiles for many.

 

Way too far out to even pay much attention to though.  Lets just see if the cold is coming first.

 

For entertainment: verbatim, this shows a rare moderate icestorm all of the way to near the coast at CHS 1/9-10. Of course, they just had some ZR twice just last winter!

[deltadog03]

My Davis Vantage Pro2 is at +0.2f for the year so far.

Hey, how do I get that Weatherunderground to show in my siggy, and how about my desktop?  Thank you!

[GaWx]

So with the actual conditions probably far colder in "Atlanta" for the month, your predictions should be completely intact, right?  I mean for a good comparison run why not use the data from the Experiment Station?  Being south, any bias would be toward the warmer, rather than say using Cartersville with might skew toward the cooler.  Do a control run for Griffin, and see how that compares to Atl. and what climo might then predict.  I know you have lots of time on your hands, now the moles aren't coming, and the ice cream is not so readily available, lol.  The Experiment Station is a huge field surrounded on all sides by a mill village, so the conditions aren't too dissimilar to the old airport I remember from the late 50s, which was a huge field with quonsit huts, and surrounded with mill sized housing.  T

 

Tony,

 Thanks for the suggestion. Actually, what about places like west ATL or maybe even PDK (NE ATL)?

[DaculaWeather]

How about Gainesville (GVL) or Athens (AHN)?

[GlaringSun]

GFS temps for next week into the week following look beautiful. 7 days straight of below freezing temps for ATL (right after having highly above average temps). I love how ATL goes from highs in the 60s to highs in the 20s in just one day.. Let's see what the Euro thinks ;P

 

since it's 10+ days out u cant rly trust the models that much tho lol

[dsaur]

Tony,

 Thanks for the suggestion. Actually, what about places like west ATL or maybe even PDK (NE ATL)?

Well, I know the data is readily available from the Exp Sta, can't say about the others, but it's your abacus time in your candle lit warren, so it's up to you, lol.  I'm game to see it all.  If 6 flags keeps accurate records, go for it   Tony

[dsaur]

How about Gainesville (GVL) or Athens (AHN)?

  To cold on average as the foothills are just right there.  I'd say somewhere on the plateau outside the heart of the heat island, and a place with accurate records kept by approved devices.  Better, I think, would be an average taken from many spots around the village.  Tony

[GaWx]

Well, I know the data is readily available from the Exp Sta, can't say about the others, but it's your abacus time in your candle lit warren, so it's up to you, lol.  I'm game to see it all.  If 6 flags keeps accurate records, go for it   Tony

 

Tony,

 So, are you talking about using these alternative stations to see how I do with my -3 F DJF prediction?

[dsaur]

GFS temps for next week into the week following look beautiful. 7 days straight of below freezing temps for ATL (right after having highly above average temps). I love how ATL goes from highs in the 60s to highs in the 20s in just one day.. Let's see what the Euro thinks ;P

 

since it's 10+ days out u cant rly trust the models that much tho lol

That's right in Atl's wheelhouse.  Going from 70 and sunny to 25 and snowing all in a day or two.  I've seen it lots of times....and it's ever and always beyond cool

[SN_Lover]

Looks like December will finish above normal for the year for my city. 

January looks more hopeful with the polar vortex on our side. 

 

Warming event incoming. This one looks really strong. 

[GaWx]

Looks like December will finish above normal for the year for my city. 

 

January looks more hopeful with the polar vortex on our side. 

 

Warming event incoming. This one looks really strong. 

 

 

 It looks VERY strong. Progs have it warming a whopping 37 C at 5 mb covering 60-90N over just ~five days from ~12/26 to ~12/31! The strongest warming I can even recall seeing over the last 30+ years isn't much warmer than that....at ~40C. This could easily end up as a top three event IF the prog verifies....will it??

 

 See the prog at this link:

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_12_2014/post-882-0-44670900-1419776040.gif

 

See bottom graph where pink line (that's the 5 hPa/mb one) ends and the prog continues..it goes from ~-23 to ~+14 in only ~five days (37C rise). This would be a classic very strong SSW. Even the supposed "guru" Cohen, himself, doesn't appear to be expecting one right now and has yet to say anything about this..caught by surprise?

 

Watch it update here each day..see if it makes it to the brown (+28 to +32) and maybe even the gray colors (+32+)at some levels..it is now at ~+9 C:

 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_OND_NH_2014.gif

[DaculaWeather]

Wave 1 Pressure levels are very high right now.

 

[Cold Rain]

^ So what are the implications of this historic warming, Larry?

[GlaringSun]

GEFS doesn't look fabulous... But again, this is 10+ days out

[deltadog03]

Company will be gone later today..hahahh  I guess I should do a webcast?  What yall think?  Im stuck on 666 for FB, can you help me get to 700 then?  LMAO

[DaculaWeather]

The implications depend on the extent of the warming and could be anywhere from a brief disruption of the PV to an all out split and wind reversal. As far as practical weather, large SSW events can generate big blocking regimes. It's just too early to tell right now.

[GaWx]

^ So what are the implications of this historic warming, Larry?

 

 The implications of a very strong SSW on the actual wx: that's the 64K Q that is very hard to answer and may never actually be known due to the extreme complexities of the atmosphere. How does one isolate effects from a SSW? Regardless, one thing I'm wondering is whether or not this will (and may already be starting to) play bigtime havoc with the upcoming model solutions.

 

Also, see Steve's response on this. I do know that sometimes they do not help bring down the AO no matter how strong.

[packbacker]

The implications depend on the extent of the warming and could be anywhere from a brief disruption of the PV to an all out split and wind reversal. As far as practical weather, large SSW events can generate big blocking regimes. It's just too early to tell right now.

Unfortunately the models have it re-organizing by day 15, but it's much weaker and hopefully there is renewed warming to hopefully finally split for an extended period of time.

[tnweathernut]

AO ensemble clusters mostly +2 to +3 incoming. It might take a historic warming to save us....

[Cold Rain]

The implications depend on the extent of the warming and could be anywhere from a brief disruption of the PV to an all out split and wind reversal. As far as practical weather, large SSW events can generate big blocking regimes. It's just too early to tell right now.

Thanks, Steve. Since, as Larry has pointed out, there's not much discussion of this, the inference is it must not be that big of a deal, in terms of its effect on the vortex. But if the warming is as extensive as it appears, I would *think* it would have a substantial impact. Maybe not, though, since it's not really being lauded.

[GaWx]

AO ensemble clusters mostly +2 to +3 incoming. It might take a historic warming to save us....

 

The Q I have is this: does the GEFS AO prediction already assume a very strong SSW is likely about to take place! It may very well may for all we know. Opinions? Shouldn't models know about SSW's and take them into account?

[DaculaWeather]

It appears that this warming is already larger than the one we had in November. It's a day by day thing. I've never had a lot of confidence in the models forecast for warming events.