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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread II


JoshM

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Thanks man I appreciate it! :)

 

Edit: the cold is definitely more impressive on our side of the globe and the center of the core is more east for sure.... -26 at 850 in the hudson bay by 189. If this verifies we shouldn't have a problem with snow chances after 204....core of cold headed for hudson bay, exactly what we want. -30+ by 204, -36 by 240...

 

the cold is so freaking impressive that it suppresses the storm the last run had. This is a good sign though IMO, we could see a healthy mix of the two but I really like where the cold is centered.

Me too, let's get the cold here or near by where it's able to be tapped. when a storm is riding up out of the gulf!

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it has the squashed storm somehow bombing out....tons of moisture at 300 and 312 around the gulf and off the coast of SC...if that squashed low didn't bomb out we would have a huge storm off the coast of NC IMO.

The look at 324 is money if that low didn't bomb out.... GFS could be one run away from an insane fantasy solution. I'll see when I wake up tomorrow! Huge trend w/ cold.

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it has the squashed storm somehow bombing out....tons of moisture at 300 and 312 around the gulf and off the coast of SC...if that squashed low didn't bomb out we would have a huge storm off the coast of NC IMO.

The look at 324 is money if that low didn't bomb out.... GFS could be one run away from an insane fantasy solution. I'll see when I wake up tomorrow! Huge trend w/ cold.

 

 

Key word "324".  Fantasy ftw, we see them every year.  Ensembles will hopefully show something good tonight... cause you know one of those members is going to be epic.. but is it a lot joining it?

 

No disrespect btw, I'm about to panic mode though. :/

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I'm still waiting for a real gfs fantasy SE bomb. But I meant the key word to be the cold placement :)

Understood Jon.  It's just getting to the point where pretty much none of us have any idea what is going to happen.

 

Is it the models?  We have analogs saying what it should do... it should be cold/stormy..  Is it us?  Being weenies?  I personally wouldn't want to work at anything with the NWS/Global guys right now.  It's volatile.. and very uncertain.

 

I could really see us getting too cold for snow at some points.. then I can see us getting too warm at points.  The models are scaring me.  It might really come down to those transition parts of cold/warm for us.

 

I personally could care less about the NAO etc.. we did okay with it.. not the best as a - .. but still.. but a trough in the West is no good deal.

 

This Christmas storm (i think) is going to help alleviate the models (stress) a bit... when it passes.

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Deltadog will know what I'm making reference to here because I responded to a question of his on twitter earlier today...

 

But this pattern change down at the surface is going to come suddenly without a whole lot of notice. The reason for that is this will end up being a two-step process...

 

The first step is getting cold from across the globe to move into Northern N. America...that's going to happen with the Christmas storm which helps spawn a brief -NAO...that's going to bring much colder source region of air.

 

The second aspect is going to be that once the new source region gets in play, these massive surface ridges (i.e 1053 mb high on tonight's 0z GFS @ 192)...will be delivering the cold into the US...the global models will have to play catch-up ball to the new source region of air...

 

It would not surprise me in the least that you'll see the surface cold start to build for the timeframe immediately after Christmas. Give it a couple days worth of model cycles...and next thing you know, its looking much colder post Christmas.

 

Tonight's height anomalies on the GFS by Days 6-8 are very ominious for a massive discharge of arctic air...

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Very surprise no one is talking about this but...

 

00z ECMWF was a surprise with major Eastern NC snow event overnight December 28/29 for everybody east of Greensboro toward coast, with jackpot east of I-95 between Wilson, NC to Virginia Beach, VA if we were to believe clown maps. I'm not sure surface temperature is there (33-34), but -6 Celsius 850 mb and 540 thickness line is telling me other wise...

 

EDIT: I guess it's 2 am and models are in full-blown chaos but I was hoping for someone as crazy as me still awake by now :)

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Very surprise no one is talking about this but...

 

00z ECMWF was a surprise with major Eastern NC snow event overnight December 28/29 for everybody east of Greensboro toward coast, with jackpot east of I-95 between Wilson, NC to Virginia Beach, VA if we were to believe clown maps. I'm not sure surface temperature is there (33-34), but -6 Celsius 850 mb and 540 thickness line is telling me other wise...

 

EDIT: I guess it's 2 am and models are in full-blown chaos but I was hoping for someone as crazy as me still awake by now :)

 

Surface temps are iffy for E NC, but with 850s and the thicknesses as they are, RDU is definitely snow.  GSO is easily snow.  I-95 is iffy and some areas might be rain-to-snow.  Somewhere just SW of Norfolk is probably the jackpot.

 

I've not been paying too much attention, so I'm not sure if the Euro is catching on to something here or just throwing a dart at the wall because as far as I knew, this period wasn't even a threat (I'm guessing the Euro is just wrong).  Then again, we do get a lot of winter storms for stationary cold fronts parked to our south.

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Surface temps are iffy for E NC, but with 850s and the thicknesses as they are, RDU is definitely snow.  GSO is easily snow.  I-95 is iffy and some areas might be rain-to-snow.  Somewhere just SW of Norfolk is probably the jackpot.

 

I've not been paying too much attention, so I'm not sure if the Euro is catching on to something here or just throwing a dart at the wall because as far as I knew, this period wasn't even a threat.  Then again, we do get a lot of winter storms for stationary cold fronts parked to our south.

 

I think I'm mostly snow as well since I'm couple of miles from 534 line. However, most models are in full chaos trying to figure out post-Christmas low pattern, so I think it's safe to hold onto our chips for now. As good as this run was for some of us in Triangle, this run was completely unexpected. I knew 540 line was going pretty deep around this period the past few days thanks to Christmas low, but I thought it was dry as well until tonight. Something to watch for when we get up in morning I guess...

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I think I'm mostly snow as well since I'm couple of miles from 534 line. However, most models are in full chaos trying to figure out post-Christmas low pattern, so I think it's safe to hold onto our chips for now. As good as this run was for some of us in Triangle, this run was completely unexpected. I knew 540 line was going pretty deep around this period the past few days thanks to Christmas low, but I thought it was dry as well until tonight. Something to watch for when we get up in morning I guess...

 

Yeah, I decided to look at the Euro really quick just to see what D10 pattern it was advertising and was shocked to see that at D8. :lol:  Totally out of the blue.

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My theory is that the models are in such chaos because something very unusual is going to unfold. What, I have no idea, but it could be fun.

 

It's just me, but I think it's combination of that massive Christmas low shifting the pattern and struggling models with server issues trying to figure out this transition. American models (and maybe Canadian) seem to have problems at this moment, but again that's just my 4 am thinking out loud. I really hope your theory is right because I love unusual events :)

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As others have mentioned I really like the idea of a New Years dy storm for the SE. So does LC. The problem as others have stated is that this big system going to the lakes needs to setup in order for the models to get some consistency. 00z last night shows the potential of what type of cold we could be dealing with. Very much had a Jan. 2011 look to it. My only issue with that is everything will get pushed to Cuba....we kind of need a relaxed version of that so we can end up closer to a solution like the Euro which is more Christmas 2010. 

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As others have mentioned I really like the idea of a New Years dy storm for the SE. So does LC. The problem as others have stated is that this big system going to the lakes needs to setup in order for the models to get some consistency. 00z last night shows the potential of what type of cold we could be dealing with. Very much had a Jan. 2011 look to it. My only issue with that is everything will get pushed to Cuba....we kind of need a relaxed version of that so we can end up closer to a solution like the Euro which is more Christmas 2009. 

 

I liked how the EPS brought in the colder sooner though, starts day 7-8 on both GEFS and EPS.  The GEFS is ice age cold, probably overdone, but starting day 8+ it's crazy cold...

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I liked how the EPS brought in the colder sooner though, starts day 7-8 on both GEFS and EPS.  The GEFS is ice age cold, probably overdone, but starting day 8+ it's crazy cold...

 

I just wonder if it's overdoing the cold due to the big low bombing out over the lakes? The cold the GFS last night showed and to an extent the GEFS feels more like one of those locked in longer term patterns vs. a transitory one. One thing I really like is pretty much every model is showing arctic air in southern Canada. With that all we need is a big High to drop into place much like last Feb. and we'll be in business. 

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I just wonder if it's overdoing the cold due to the big low bombing out over the lakes? The cold the GFS last night showed and to an extent the GEFS feels more like one of those locked in longer term patterns vs. a transitory one. One thing I really like is pretty much every model is showing arctic air in southern Canada. With that all we need is a big High to drop into place much like last Feb. and we'll be in business. 

 

I agree it's probably overdone, but that's a good thing as you said as we would be dealing with cold/dry.  

 

The one good things on the models is that even by day 15+ is they all hold onto the -EPO. 

 

We probably still relax sometime early/mid Jan, even the winter or 09/10 which I considered end to end cold had a 10 day period of warmth in mid-Jan.

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DT had a good writeup on the upcoming pattern...alot of folks are up in arms about his last couple of paragraphs about the -QBO and MJO.  No telling what the MJO is going to do the rest of the winter.  But, as for the -QBO, which he believes is a bad thing, I picked out the winter analogs that had a (-QBO/+PDO/+ENSO) and you get this below, which essentially looks like the GEFS...09/10 and 76/77 maybe the best matches when it comes to those 3 parameters and those are crazy cold winters.  He obviously is a lot smarter than me so if the -QBO is bad lets hope that rises.

 

 

http://www.wxrisk.com/the-dts/

 

 

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Most winter, it seems the NAO, the QBO, and the MJO hurt us more than they help us.

 

The NAO is the biggest bummer so far about this winter, I would have thought we would have seen stretches of a -NAO by now, kind of giving up on that happening ever in our lifetimes again :bag: .  We probably don't have a blockbuster (12"+) type winter without it, but still think we will finish around climo (6-8").

 

It really helps our chances too, look at this chart below for central NC, not surprising we do so much better with a -NAO.  We would be better off with a -NAO in a Nina, LOL.

 

The chart below shows the average number of snow days (with ≥1 inch of snow) in central and eastern NC, broken down by NAO and ENSO phase

 

NAO_Interactions.png

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Very surprise no one is talking about this but...

00z ECMWF was a surprise with major Eastern NC snow event overnight December 28/29 for everybody east of Greensboro toward coast, with jackpot east of I-95 between Wilson, NC to Virginia Beach, VA if we were to believe clown maps. I'm not sure surface temperature is there (33-34), but -6 Celsius 850 mb and 540 thickness line is telling me other wise...

EDIT: I guess it's 2 am and models are in full-blown chaos but I was hoping for someone as crazy as me still awake by now :)

Always come back west generally when this far out. Still good to see something but no confidence yet

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