GaWx Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 It does seem like the CFS is missing the cold west/central look that the models are depicting for early Jan, although there is a weak signal, I suppose. Either that, or it's expecting the 2nd half of Jan to light us all on fire.No, the CFS has the weeks 1-2 cold outside of the SE:http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/sweaver/cfs_fcst/images1/wk1.wk2_20141226.NAsfcT.gif After this, it gets rid of all of the cold from the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 No, the CFS has the weeks 1-2 cold outside of the SE: http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/sweaver/cfs_fcst/images1/wk1.wk2_20141226.NAsfcT.gif Gotcha, so the Are expecting the second half of Jan to torch. I don't believe that. I just looked at your link. I thought it was the same one Pack posted, but it wasn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 No, the CFS has the weeks 1-2 cold outside of the SE: http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/sweaver/cfs_fcst/images1/wk1.wk2_20141226.NAsfcT.gif The SE has run the entire spectrum for temp anomalies on the CFS for January over the past week. LOL. Confidence issues to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 No, the CFS has the weeks 1-2 cold outside of the SE:http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/sweaver/cfs_fcst/images1/wk1.wk2_20141226.NAsfcT.gif CFS has been doing fine. I wouldn't buy its Feb forecast yet, but come mid/end of Jan it will start coming into range. The CFS may change the next few days for Jan, it's been going back and forth with conus touch and cold east. Shows still a lot of uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 The SE has run the entire spectrum for temp anomalies on the CFS for January over the past week. LOL. Confidence issues to say the least. Agreed, I just posted that thought above. Still a lot of uncertainty both ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Don't get bent up about the CFS it's garbage, I don't care if someone says it's accurate near the end of the month for the next month it's still a garbage model. But hey if that's correct we still have 4 days of terrible CFS runs to look at! GFS & Euro still advertising PV split at 144hrs. GFS retrogrades,if you will, the PV back by 240 but Euro's not having it and keeps it on our side of the globe through Jan 6th which, for cold modeled in the central US, makes more sense. Euro might be the model to follow right now if you have to follow one for the LR, especially the means... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Don't get bent up about the CFS it's garbage, I don't care if someone says it's accurate near the end of the month for the next month it's still a garbage model. But hey if that's correct we still have 4 days of terrible CFS runs to look at! GFS & Euro still advertising PV split at 144hrs. GFS retrogrades,if you will, the PV back by 140 but Euro's not having it and keeps it on our side of the globe through Jan 6th which, for cold modeled in the central US, makes more sense. Euro might be the model to follow right now if you have to follow one for the LR, especially the means... Regardless of the CFS weeks 3-4, I'm still hoping that the somewhat more favorable MJO phases for cold will turn things around near 1/15. My guess is that weeks 3-4 aren't reliable at all vs weeks 1-2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Regardless of the CFS weeks 3-4, I'm still hoping that the somewhat more favorable MJO phases for cold will turn things around near 1/15. Funny how we were saying the same thing a month ago. Next it will be 2-15, 3-15=welcome to Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Don't get bent up about the CFS it's garbage, I don't care if someone says it's accurate near the end of the month for the next month it's still a garbage model. But hey if that's correct we still have 4 days of terrible CFS runs to look at! GFS & Euro still advertising PV split at 144hrs. GFS retrogrades,if you will, the PV back by 140 but Euro's not having it and keeps it on our side of the globe through Jan 6th which, for cold modeled in the central US, makes more sense. Euro might be the model to follow right now if you have to follow one for the LR, especially the means... The Euro-EPS is warm day 11-15 for the entire conus south of I-40. It's not that far off from the CFS, the core of the cold is in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Regardless of the CFS weeks 3-4, I'm still hoping that the somewhat more favorable MJO phases for cold will turn things around near 1/15. My guess is that weeks 3-4 aren't that good. yeah I mean it looks like it's headed that way on the Euro ENS MJO plot we just have to get through 4,5,6,7 first Mid month doesn't look like a bad guess of when things will start to change in our favor, this is going to be a long 19 days if true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 The Euro-EPS is warm day 11-15 for the entire conus south of I-40. It's not that far off from the CFS, the core of the cold is in Canada. Yeah by LR I meant day 10 only...240. I don't trust any model really right now outside of that range especially right now..the PV retrogrades by 240* I meant in my post (just edited) and the Euro really hasn't stepped down from the strat idea, yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Funny how we were saying the same thing a month ago. Next it will be 2-15, 3-15=welcome to Spring. Whereas the CFS has shown some skill late month, I'm assuming this is only because week 1 has good skill for obvious reasons and week 2 has some skill. If you're at the end if a month looking ahead and the 1st two weeks of CFS have pretty good skill, then naturally the CFS monthly will have some skill if it can do fairly well for the 1st half of the month regardless of what the 2nd half does/despite how unreliable weeks 3-4 of the CFS very likely are. That's very likely why only the last week or so before the month has the most skill. So, what I'm saying is that we should put only very little weight on CFS weeks 3-4, especially 4. By then, when the MJO is hopefully in phases 7-8, things will hopefully look much better for the SE. Aside: Jon, phase 7 is actually one of the colder phases on avg., too, fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 I definitely should applaud Gawx for the recognition of 1939-40 as an analog to this winter, the December temperatures are nearly a perfect match to this year. Nicely done! In fact, within that multi-year El Nino event from 1939-42, every single winter like this year was virtually a coast-coast torch in December, but this trend didn't remain the case throughout the rest of the winter, especially in February w/ the core of the cold, as one would expect in this kind of ENSO state, mainly confined to the southeastern US I really like the late 1930s, it's a fairly close match in terms of interdecadal ENSO variability marked by an overall lack of El Ninos, & thus this lack of El Ninos led to a subsequent drop in Atlantic Hurricane ACE despite being juxtaposed near the heart of the last +AMO multidecadal phase...(w/o El Ninos to slow down the THC, decrease surface evaporation & wind stress, especially during boreal winter, causes the AMO to fall, & at the same token the abundance of El Ninos, particularly during the 1990-94 period invigorates the AMO, & in that instance it was enough to reign in a new multidecadal warm phase in 1995..) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Whereas the CFS has shown some skill late month, I'm assuming this is only because week 1 has good skill for obvious reasons and week 2 has some skill. If you're at the end if a month looking ahead and the 1st two weeks of CFS have pretty good skill, then naturally the CFS monthly will have some skill if it can do fairly well for the 1st half of the month regardless of what the 2nd half does/despite how unreliable weeks 3-4 of the CFS very likely are. That's very likely why only the last week or so before the month has the most skill. So, what I'm saying is that we should put only very little weight on CFS weeks 3-4, especially 4. By then, when the MJO is hopefully in phases 7-8, things will hopefully look much better for the SE. Aside: Jon, phase 7 is actually one of the colder phases on avg., too, fwiw. DonS posted about this earlier... I could only find one winter that had a +AO for Dec/Jan which then had a -AO for Feb (82/83). Not saying that Jan's AO will be + but let's hope we see that turn around in early Jan. Maybe I missing a couple of others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 So the cfs has a +pna and -ao and forecasts a blowtorch? Nah, don't think so. Remember this is the same model that forecasted a super nino. It was also showing a frigid January just a few days ago. My confidence is the cfs is very low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 DonS posted about this earlier... I could only find one winter that had a +AO for Dec/Jan which then had a -AO for Feb (82/83). Not saying that Jan's AO will be + but let's hope we see that turn around in early Jan. Maybe I missing a couple of others. I posted about this in the ma forum yesterday. 51-52, 04-05, and 06-07 flipped late. The jury is out for Jan and we're a few weeks away from really knowing. IF we can get some real blocking going it could easily run the typical 30-60 day period. A late flip to a strong -ao could also add March to the snow window. They're hit and miss south of 40 but plenty of good storms have happened in the first half of march for both of us through history. I wouldn't over think d10-15 euro ens. With Canada being so cold, a big push into the se can happen at any time. Especially behind any big storm even if it's a cutter/runner. No block means quick hitting cold (like last year) but we all need that first before we can talk frozen. Reality will likely look a lot different in 10-15 days anyway. Which direction is hard to say. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 I definitely should applaud Gawx for the recognition of 1939-40 as an analog to this winter, the December temperatures are nearly a perfect match to this year. Nicely done! [/quote 1) Thanks, Webber. 2) the 12Z GFS has the western ridge even further offshore and the SE ridge looking dominant. Great news for outdoor activities, including walking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 I definitely should applaud Gawx for the recognition of 1939-40 as an analog to this winter, the December temperatures are nearly a perfect match to this year. Nicely done! [/quote 1) Thanks, Webber. 2) the 12Z GFS has the ridge even further west and the SE ridge looking dominant. Great news for outdoor activities, including walking. LOL, for the 1/3 system it tracks over Chicago. Euro tracks the system a day later over the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Well if the ridge retrogrades far enough west, eventually a trough will setup in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Well if the ridge retrogrades far enough west, eventually a trough will setup in the east. Actually, if this persistent run after run of shifting things westward keeps up (it won't stop!!), you could very well be right. Actually, I'm putting more hope for this for near 1/15, when the MJO may help with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Actually, if this persistent run after run of shifting things westward keeps up (it won't stop!!), you could very well be right. Actually, I'm putting more hope for this for near 1/15, when the MJO may help with that. I've been thinking mid Jan since the first week or so in Dec. We will eventually have a winter and some storms to track, but I'm fairly confident there won't be much interest in the next couple of weeks, outside of a fluke or something. That will be about 1/2 of winter right down the crapper. Very unfortunate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 I posted about this in the ma forum yesterday. 51-52, 04-05, and 06-07 flipped late. The jury is out for Jan and we're a few weeks away from really knowing. IF we can get some real blocking going it could easily run the typical 30-60 day period. A late flip to a strong -ao could also add March to the snow window. They're hit and miss south of 40 but plenty of good storms have happened in the first half of march for both of us through history. I wouldn't over think d10-15 euro ens. With Canada being so cold, a big push into the se can happen at any time. Especially behind any big storm even if it's a cutter/runner. No block means quick hitting cold (like last year) but we all need that first before we can talk frozen. Reality will likely look a lot different in 10-15 days anyway. Which direction is hard to say. Lol Agreed. The cold air is key and I've been trying to stress that even in the CFS runs, though they look torchy look at the trend over Canada. They're getting that right. Anything can flip on a dime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 I posted about this in the ma forum yesterday. 51-52, 04-05, and 06-07 flipped late. The jury is out for Jan and we're a few weeks away from really knowing. IF we can get some real blocking going it could easily run the typical 30-60 day period. A late flip to a strong -ao could also add March to the snow window. They're hit and miss south of 40 but plenty of good storms have happened in the first half of march for both of us through history. I wouldn't over think d10-15 euro ens. With Canada being so cold, a big push into the se can happen at any time. Especially behind any big storm even if it's a cutter/runner. No block means quick hitting cold (like last year) but we all need that first before we can talk frozen. Reality will likely look a lot different in 10-15 days anyway. Which direction is hard to say. Lol Let's hope we don't see the flip from those winters, I thinks we 5" total from all of those winters :-)Agreee on the blocking, you guys will probably do fine with the SE ridge, you guys seem to always do fine, but we will need something to beat down the ridge. Just curious, what are you guys climo wise since 09/10? 150%? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 JB's free weekly Saturday video: http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-december-27-2014 Keep in mind that his perspective is not centered on the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 JB's free weekly Saturday video: http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-december-27-2014 Thanks GaWx! Although, proposedly not watching, tiring hearing him hyping this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Let's hope we don't see the flip from those winters, I thinks we 5" total from all of those winters :-) Agreee on the blocking, you guys will probably do fine with the SE ridge, you guys seem to always do fine, but we will need something to beat down the ridge. Just curious, what are you guys climo wise since 09/10? 150%? We don't do fine with the se ridge. Last year was the only time. 93-94 was a similar year and we finished below climo. DCA is 137% including 09-10 but our feast/famine winters are annoying. The 3 winters post 09-10, dca has 10.1, 2 and 3.1. Terrible stretch. We generally don't do climo. Usually a good bit below on average and then hit a home run like 02-03, 09-10, 13-14 to keep the #'s up. Last time we went back to back to back climo + was 86-87, 87-88. That was one of flags I couldn't get out of my mind leading into this winter. Back to backs are very rare here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Thanks GaWx! Although, proposedly not watching, tiring hearing him hyping this winter. Per JB video (check it out for the CFS indices ), today 's CFS has a solid -AO dominating 1/5+ and a +PNA 1/10+. Is this to be believed? If we get both of these, how could the SE stay mild?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 We don't do fine with the se ridge. Last year was the only time. 93-94 was a similar year and we finished below climo. DCA is 137% including 09-10 but our feast/famine winters are annoying. The 3 winters post 09-10, dca has 10.1, 2 and 3.1. Terrible stretch. We generally don't do climo. Usually a good bit below on average and then hit a home run like 02-03, 09-10, 13-14 to keep the #'s up. Last time we went back to back to back climo + was 86-87, 87-88. That was one of flags I couldn't get out of my mind leading into this winter. Back to backs are very rare here. The back to backs are always tough. RDU is about 75% of climo over those same 5 years, haven't had a feast year since 04. I thought this year would break that awful record streak. Still holding out weenie hope, atleast til mid-Jan. If it's evident blocking isn't going to develop by mid Jan we will be in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Quick update on my thoughts for the weekend, and a little bit on the medium and extended range. I still think he pattern is coming for us, its been delayed, NOT denied! The I-40 will benefit from this new pattern, if anyone does around here for the next few weeks. https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Somebody's falling down on the job here, because the GFS is looking absolutely !!!!!!!! in the LR. Come on, you guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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