superjames1992 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Bout like last night's 0z Canadian. I didn't check the 13z today, but will be interested to see what tonight's has to say. Atleast it's something to chase besides patterns and fog The 12z Canadian sucked, but the 00z looks like ice to rain for us. It has a monster HP in place in the NE for the overrunning event. The "main event" at D10 is clearly a cutter rainstorm, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 The gfs actually looks pretty interesting for most of this run. There would be a lot of CAD opportunities with this anomalous cold air mass sitting on the Canadian border. There are several instances of HP's dropping into the plains and sliding into the northeast. If the timing is right, we could get a nasty ice/mix storm out of one of these at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 The gfs actually looks pretty interesting for most of this run. There would be a lot of CAD opportunities with this anomalous cold air mass sitting on the Canadian border. There are several instances of HP's dropping into the plains and sliding into the northeast. If the timing is right, we could get a nasty ice/mix storm out of one of these at some point. I'd go with a big ice storm coming for parts of the SE. It's been showing up/possibility for a while now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 The gfs actually looks pretty interesting for most of this run. There would be a lot of CAD opportunities with this anomalous cold air mass sitting on the Canadian border. There are several instances of HP's dropping into the plains and sliding into the northeast. If the timing is right, we could get a nasty ice/mix storm out of one of these at some point. One thing I've noticed on tonight's runs is that the HPs are coming down stronger and in better position, it seems. It will be interesting to watch over the coming days if there's anything to that or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Huge changes on the 00z Euro. It's hard to believe it's the same model. (Not that it's good for us or anything) It goes from a huge cutter to Apps Runner and crushes NE TX/AR/NW TN/KY/WV and then up in the Northeast. Needless to say, the Mid-Atlantic gets crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 As much as I want to believe the GEFS in the 10+ day period it's been to cold in the east in that period over the past 10 days. Compare the period ending Jan 6th. The Euro may have a "west bias" but the GFS has an east bias.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 The gfs actually looks pretty interesting for most of this run. There would be a lot of CAD opportunities with this anomalous cold air mass sitting on the Canadian border. There are several instances of HP's dropping into the plains and sliding into the northeast. If the timing is right, we could get a nasty ice/mix storm out of one of these at some point. I just looked at both the 0z and 6z and both show cold in the area or nearby for most of the run. With an active southern stream and high pressure sliding across the north, we'll have a chance or two, if that pattern verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 It would be nice to get something to cut and phase and yank the trough east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 I didn't think the extended pattern looked too bad, esp for NC. The +PNA goes all the way to the north pole, so the cold air is going to be dumping into the US. Yes, it may be a little west of the SE, but it's close. Also, the trough sitting over Hawaii is going to pump storm after storm into the US..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 I didn't think the extended pattern looked too bad, esp for NC. The +PNA goes all the way to the north pole, so the cold air is going to be dumping into the US. Yes, it may be a little west of the SE, but it's close. Also, the trough sitting over Hawaii is going to pump storm after storm into the US..... I see what you are saying but the SE ridge keeps pumping up with every intrusion according to the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 I see what you are saying but the SE ridge keeps pumping up with every intrusion according to the models.it has been a feature that weakens as we get closer. NY day timeframe is much colder than earlier in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 it has been a feature that weakens as we get closer. NY day timeframe is much colder than earlier in the week. I think eventually the SE ridge will get beaten down and allow the cold to seep into the SE, May take a 2-3 more weeks maybe a lot less hard to say? Can't trust models at all. And like you said NYD is going to be a lot colder than it looked just a few days ago! Delayed but not denied!!! lol Shift that tall ridge Greensboro Weather is talking about east just a bit we'll be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 I see what you are saying but the SE ridge keeps pumping up with every intrusion according to the models. Yes, the SE is going to be the battleground between cold (north) and warm (south). The SE ridge will slowly get beaten down through January (I think). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Pack maybe we end up with a middle ground solution for day 10+ from the euro and gefs. If so I'd be more than happy to take my chances. Also with these HPS sliding through the NE just like Brandon said it's only a matter of time before one times it just right, to put down some ice. We have to get the pna to stay pos. As long as we can do that well be able to salvage Jan while the AO and NAO stay on their hiatis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Hopefully the western ridge will finally shift eastward to near the W coast of the US by ~1/15, when the MJO will finally have a chance to reach the phases that tend somewhat to be associated with cold (7+) or back into the COD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 I didn't think the extended pattern looked too bad, esp for NC. The +PNA goes all the way to the north pole, so the cold air is going to be dumping into the US. Yes, it may be a little west of the SE, but it's close. Also, the trough sitting over Hawaii is going to pump storm after storm into the US..... I agree.. it wouldn't take much of a shift in the models to show something pretty wild... i.e. the mean trough trending east. Models show that HI trough pushing east which will further challenge the SE ridge. I expect if that is true, you will see the strength of the SE ridge trend down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Hopefully the western ridge will finally shift eastward to near the W coast of the US by ~1/15, when the MJO will finally have a chance to reach the phases that tend somewhat to be associated with cold (7+) or back into the COD. I agree.. it wouldn't take much of a shift in the models to show something pretty wild... i.e. the mean trough trending east. Models show that HI trough pushing east which will further challenge the SE ridge. I expect if that is true, you will see the strength of the SE ridge trend down.I think we will need blocking, both the -AO/-NAO, to have a chance. I don't think we can get by like last year with just the strong -EPO and well placed trough. The Euro never had this strong of a SE ridge modeled last year.Look at what the CFS had last year for Jan, not even close to the same as this year. We are in a little bit of trouble here. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201401.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 I think we will need blocking, both the -AO/-NAO, to have a chance. I don't think we can get by like last year with just the strong -EPO and well placed trough. The Euro never had this strong of a SE ridge modeled last year. It's the two year Nina lag atmospheric memory that's affecting the pattern this year. Hence, the SE ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Really liking the temp distribution being shown in the 6-10 Day in all major guidance, very similar to the Warm Neutral, Weak, & Modoki El Nino January composites... Core of the cold should shift southeastward towards the East coast & SE US in February... The temperatures the last week or so over North America have been pretty similar to what Schreck et al noted in reference to the Multivariate PNA Index combined w/ Phase 3 RMM MJO, where in a neutral-negative state, the core of the warmth tends to situate itself over south-central Canada & the northern tier w/ some diffusion into the eastern US... We should begin to move out this unfavorable regime in relatively short order Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 What's the latest CFS chart look like, Pack? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 It's the two year Nina lag atmospheric memory that's affecting the pattern this year. Hence, the SE ridge. We are definitely not in a nino like pattern. We have had one nino in the past 7 years, and this year may not register as a nino anyways nor is it behaving like one. I just read Eric's post, so waiting on Feb....what a debacle this winter is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 We are definitely not in a nino like pattern. We have had one nino in the past 7 years, and this year may not register as a nino anyways nor is it behaving like one. I just read Eric's post, so waiting on Feb....what a debacle this winter is. Don't worry, we'll be waiting on March soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 What's the latest CFS chart look like, Pack? Conus torch...that would be welcome actually, misery loves company. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201501.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 What's the latest CFS chart look like, Pack? I'm not Pack, but today's CFS looks awful fwiw. Weeks 3-4: http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/sweaver/cfs_fcst/images1/wk3.wk4_20141226.NAsfcT.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Thanks guys. The run from the 20th looks good! We still have a couple of days to turn it around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Don't worry, we'll be waiting on March soon enough. It was fairly evident in early Dec it was going to be a punt it month, getting close to that point for January. We can only ride "the models are wrong" for so long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 No way that verifys with the epo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 It was fairly evident in early Dec it was going to be a punt it month, getting close to that point for January. We can only ride "the models are wrong" for so long. It does seem like the CFS is missing the cold west/central look that the models are depicting for early Jan, although there is a weak signal, I suppose. Either that, or it's expecting the 2nd half of Jan to light us all on fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 No way that verifys with the epo. For the SE it could verify warm if we don't get the +PNA/west coast ridge and don't get rid of the SE ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 It does seem like the CFS is missing the cold west/central look that the models are depicting for early Jan, although there is a weak signal, I suppose. Either that, or it's expecting the 2nd half of Jan to light us all on fire.Well the weeklies, JMA and now CFS all agree. Let's hope they are all wrong. The SSWE the Euro is modeling could be a game changer for end of Jan, IMO, but we need the PV to blow up like the Death Star. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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