superjames1992 Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Greg Fishel just posted on facebook that we will have plenty of precipitation around here but no cold. He said it looks like things really warm up, too. Maybe things will change at the end of January like they did last winter. But right now it looks like all those forecasts for above average snowfall here are a big bust. The wall-to-wall cold and the cold December (and MAYBE January... though I still think that's really premature) forecasts are a bust, but we can easily surpass average snowfall with a rockin' second half of winter. It only takes one good storm in these parts... The good news is that we're currently at the threshold of hell and it can only get better from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 You know I agree. I would rather have that than cold and dry or plain rain. I just wish all thus precipitation we have had would keep repeating until the cold air gets here for snow. Then all the rain would be worth it. Typically ++PDO's are very wet in the E/SE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Thank you everyone for all the of GREAT Feedback with these videos. The feedback is really helping me to make them better. Would y'all like for me to grab GFS images and put a few on there? The reason I haven't yet, is because it usually takes a really long time to do that. I can, just want to see if it will matter. I can't thank y'all enough for all the new likes with Facebook page. I am 40 away from 700 likes. Lets keep pushing There are 2 videos in 1. The latter will be the model disco/thoughts/pattern change thoughts. I STILL DO think we are going to see the pattern change, it will change and produce. Maybe just not now. I do think the I-40 corridor stands the best chance right now...More in the video, please let me know what y'all think on my FB page.. please like and share there. -Chris https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Just a little difference between Euro-EPS and GEFS... See a couple posts above for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 C'mon pack, to make this work you need to post warm maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Based on the models stubbornly placing the western ridge too far offshore in so many runs, I'm currently thinking that the best shot for cold to start dominating the bulk of the SE is going to be ~1/15 when the MJO hopefully gets out of phase 6 and into either phase 7 or the COD. Perhaps then we'll finally have a +PNA dominating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Based on the models stubbornly placing the western ridge too far offshore in so many runs, I'm currently thinking that the best shot for cold to start dominating the bulk of the SE is going to be ~1/15 when the MJO hopefully gets out of phase 6 and into either phase 7 or the COD. Perhaps then we'll finally have a +PNA dominating.then we will be fighting the sun angle and ground temp crowd. O'well sounds like your typical winter in the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 C'mon pack, to make this work you need to post warm maps. I did, 2 posts above :-) I really just want to post maps just so we can track how the models are doing. That's a big difference between the GFS and Euro day 11+. It will probably be blend of the two, which won't be terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 I did, 2 posts above :-) I really just want to post maps just so we can track how the models are doing. That's a big difference between the GFS and Euro day 11+. It will probably it will probably what? C'mon the suspense is killing me! Don't leave us hanging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 it will probably what? C'mon the suspense is killing me! Don't leave us hanging. Fixed... It will probably be blend of the two, which won't be terrible Although I am still holding out hope for -NAO, atleast some point in this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 and while pac leaves us hanging, jb has the ***** to Tweet: We think what happened in the mid and latter part of November is on the way next 2-3 week, but mid winter style.We can compare come mid Jan Mid-Jan -- put it on your calendar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 and while pac leaves us hanging, jb has the ***** to Tweet: We think what happened in the mid and latter part of November is on the way next 2-3 week, but mid winter style.We can compare come mid Jan Mid-Jan -- put it on your calendar. Actually he means the next 2 to 3 weeks. Starting this coming week. Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 5h5 hours ago As far as whats coming. 2 weeks starting Dec 28 will rival against normals coldest 2 weeks of November for US as whole. Europe in it now too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 This isn't based on "hard data" but just something to think about. We know even the short term models have been abysmal over all, and the Cvs2 have been crazy wacky. While the pattern stinks now and has all month ( and I see no reason to expect a Miracle) why would we expect the long range models to be nailing it now? Most likely, this isn't going to be a blockbuster winter, but there is cold in the NH, unlike some other years. We could easily enter a far better pattern well before the end of Jan. While I am very disappointed so far, I just can't see it being a 2011-2012 type of year. I just don't think the models have been very accurate over the past couple months, therefore I don't expect them to be going forward until they perform better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Actually he means the next 2 to 3 weeks. Starting this coming week. Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 5h5 hours ago As far as whats coming. 2 weeks starting Dec 28 will rival against normals coldest 2 weeks of November for US as whole. Europe in it now too JB - That means the clock is running, I suppose? Mid-Jan; we'll see ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 JB - That means the clock is running, I suppose? Mid-Jan; we'll see ..... don't worry the cold is coming just might not reach us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 This isn't based on "hard data" but just something to think about. We know even the short term models have been abysmal over all, and the Cvs2 have been crazy wacky. While the pattern stinks now and has all month ( and I see no reason to expect a Miracle) why would we expect the long range models to be nailing it now? Most likely, this isn't going to be a blockbuster winter, but there is cold in the NH, unlike some other years. We could easily enter a far better pattern well before the end of Jan. While I am very disappointed so far, I just can't see it being a 2011-2012 type of year. I just don't think the models have been very accurate over the past couple months, therefore I don't expect them to be going forward until they perform better. I agree, for this area there isn't alot of snowless winters with a ++PDO/+ENSO. It's a very climo+ snow background state, climo will usually win out, this time for the benefit of a snowy SE. 76/77 might be the worst and that was a freezer box from Dec to mid Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 00z is running... Hopefully it can be prettier than the last few runs (kind of doubt it though). 'Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 I'm sure we will be fine. Winter is just getting started and we are in a plus enso/PDO winter. Chances will come. I hope you're right. I saw the 00z runs early and it's beyond torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 If I'm seeing it correctly, the SE ridge is weakening @90 on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 High heights, 850s never drop below +2 the entire 18z run. Back in December 2010 meteostsr runs showed the 500-1000mb thickness solid blue the entire run after run. I would love to see a good ole -NAO and a 50/50 with a +PNA. I guess the old saying of you do really appreciate what you have till it's gone fits well, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 18z DGEX!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 So I looked back on the 06z run on the 22nd, seems like (if I'm correct) if the minor ridge just south of Arkansas and Oklahoma got kicked out, we could be in business for some cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 So I looked back on the 06z run on the 22nd, seems like (if I'm correct) if the minor ridge just south of Arkansas and Oklahoma got kicked out, we could be in business for some cold air. Just curious but what good is there in looking at model run from four days ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 18z DGEX!!!!!!!!!!!! I may have to go on a road trip to Boone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Just curious but what good is there in looking at model run from four days ago? Well, up until the 31st and 1st, both runs looked very similar, when the cold air from the Plains came SE and overran the minor SE warmth. I don't know, it just seemed like on the earlier run, the SE ridge was alot weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 The 00z GFS is pretty close to an ice storm for the CAD regions of NC to start on 1/3, though it appears the end result is low to mid 30s with rain.. SW VA gets some ice to start. Some interesting changes all along. By the end of it, we're all in the 50s/60s, though. Get the storm in a little faster and there would be some fireworks, but that'll be a tough/impossible task. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 The 00z GFS is pretty close to an ice storm for the CAD regions of NC to start on 1/3, though it appears the end result is low to mid 30s with rain.. SW VA gets some ice to start. Some interesting changes all along. By the end of it, we're all in the 50s/60s, though. Get the storm in a little faster and there would be some fireworks, but that'll be a tough/impossible task. yeah what was once the new years day storm is delayed so the cold air is lifting out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Para is a little quicker and starts the mtns off as sleet freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 I'm pretty close to jumping the train on a day 5-8 storm for ATL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Bout like last night's 0z Canadian. I didn't check the 13z today, but will be interested to see what tonight's has to say. Atleast it's something to chase besides patterns and fog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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