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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread II

JoshM

By JoshM,
in Southeastern States

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deltadog03

deltadog03

Posted
Posted

Taking out the "noise" of JB forecast, I think he is just frustrated.  I can FULLY understand that.  Right or wrong, the man works his butt off.  There have been MANY forecasts that have been AWFUL This year.  Honestly, this is the 1 BIG reason why I don't do a winter outlook, online or for my viewers on TV.  I will def. talk about trends and have some thoughts about the winter overall, but I don't do a traditional winter/summer outlook.  I understand why they are done, I just don't really believe in them. I honestly thought that December would have been a bit better, but also thought it would be the WORST month of the winter, if you want wintry weather.  There have been some GREAT examples of JAN and or FEB being the best in this overall pattern setup.  Either way, for ME, 1 or 2 storms is MORE than enough for winter weather in the SE.  Its the SE, and people have to remember that.  For me, if DEC sucks, JAN maybe a threat or 2, and a rockin' FEB...Im SOLD and I am all good with that.  Ok, of soap box.  BTW, I have NEVER seen the models *ENS as well* SUCK so bad!!

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Shawn

Shawn

Posted
Posted

Big differences between the para and regular gfs by day 5.

 

We really need a Winter storm of some sort before the upgrade takes over.  I think Lookout had said basically the same thing.  I'm hearing verification scores are pretty good with it (but haven't looked into it).  It'd be interesting to see how it would really fare vs the current GFS, Euro, and GGEM.

 

It's just odd how it can be so far off sometimes.  It could be either good or bad.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Why in the hell would he think that with the prospect of us having +PDOs

 

 I wonder if he'll end up adjusting this IF this winter doesn't turn out to be cold since he is E US cold biased at least imo. Also, 3 of 5 doesn't sound like that big of a deal. If he had said 5 of 5 or even 4 of 5, that would be more of a warm statement. Also, it wouldn't surprise me if he has a cold Midwest during those warm E US winters. He could just mean the E 1/8 of the US when he says E US, for example. For all we know, he could have a warm E 1/8 and a very cold western 5/8 or 6/8.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

JB is an interesting character. It's hard to bite on a 36-60 month forecast when nobody can get a 36-60 day forecast right.

The -epo is the real deal. But both our areas are going to fight a se ridge at times but the longer it lasts the odds increase.

 

Bob,

 It is pretty simple for the SE US. We need a return of the +PNA, especially while -AO/-NAO blocking is largely absent, if we want persistent cold. bleeding cold won't work well for most of the SE. A prevailing +PNA is pretty typical of a Nino and +PDO. Why isn't it back yet?

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

JB is an interesting character. It's hard to bite on a 36-60 month forecast when nobody can get a 36-60 day forecast right.

The -epo is the real deal. But both our areas are going to fight a se ridge at times but the longer it lasts the odds increase.

Yeah, he is going down with the ship, assuming it goes down.  This morning he commented that he obviously was to fast with the cold but that it was still coming and there would be ridging in the west and troughing in the east.  We are going to have "pay the piper" down the road.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

Bob,

It is pretty simple for the SE US. We need a return of the +PNA, especially while -AO/-NAO blocking is largely absent, if we want persistent cold. A prevailing +PNA is pretty typical of a Nino and +PDO. Why isn't it back yet?

I agree. We need that as well here. But I don't think a -pna is going to be some static feature. With progressive flow, a transient +pna is possible anytime.

We're in a nina pattern for whatever reason. People can blame the sun, mjo, or whatever but it is what it is. I highly doubt this is the new theme for an extended period. Just part of an unusual winter (based on expectations). The only sure thing about weather patterns is that there is never a sure thing until it's staring you in the face. Each individual year is an analog of its own. They all have their own personality.

Seems pretty apparent that multiple arctic airmasses will be dropping into the conus over the next few weeks (and probably beyond). That's a huge change from where we just were. OTOH, at face value it looks like the east in general is the short end of the stick but I'm not biting hook line and sinker. There is so much spread that it's not worth buying doom and gloom model suites or the optimistic ones. The only stable feature I'm seeing on the suites is the -epo. The rest will need to work itself out for better or worse until we get another stable feature like a -ao or fable -nao. They could both go crazy positive too. I'm just going one day at a time and not sweating the long lead looks until they become medium lead.

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

I agree. We need that as well here. But I don't think a -pna is going to be some static feature. With progressive flow, a transient +pna is possible anytime.

We're in a nina pattern for whatever reason. People can blame the sun, mjo, or whatever but it is what it is. I highly doubt this is the new theme for an extended period. Just part of an unusual winter (based on expectations). The only sure thing about weather patterns is that there is never a sure thing until it's staring you in the face. Each individual year is an analog of its own. They all have their own personality.

Seems pretty apparent that multiple arctic airmasses will be dropping into the conus over the next few weeks (and probably beyond). That's a huge change from where we just were. OTOH, at face value it looks like the east in general is the short end of the stick but I'm not biting hook line and sinker. There is so much spread that it's not worth buying doom and gloom model suites or the optimistic ones. The only stable feature I'm seeing on the suites is the -epo. The rest will need to work itself out for better or worse until we get another stable feature like a -ao or fable -nao. They could both go crazy positive too. I'm just going one day at a time and not sweating the long lead looks until they become medium lead.

 

This looks better though, much better.

 

Be nice if EPS was somewhat close to this.

post-2311-0-56981700-1419615997_thumb.pn

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

Surprised nobody is talking about the 12z GFS para. Has two waves:

 

1) At 183 hours looks like maybe some ice

http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_183_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=183&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=area&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141223+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

 

2) At 216 looks to be better chances of ice with snow right at the VA/NC boarder

http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_216_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=216&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=area&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141223+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

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franklin NCwx

franklin NCwx

Posted
Posted

Oh well might as well enjoy this weather because it may be another 30 days until we see a favorable pattern change for the SE. it is funny really how in the fall everything was lining up for us. Know everything is lining up against us.

it was just two weeks ago everything was looking good. Blocking over Canada, eastern us trough. And active southern stream. Now we have low heights in Canada and a ridge over the east. Talk about a 180 flip.
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Met1985

Met1985

Posted
Posted

it was just two weeks ago everything was looking good. Blocking over Canada, eastern us trough. And active southern stream. Now we have low heights in Canada and a ridge over the east. Talk about a 180 flip.

yeah it is a remarkable turn around from what was looking to happen. I just cannot get my head around the crap out west. Just trough after trough with a negative epo. By no means am I tossing winter but shoot you get to a point were your like this is comical.
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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

Greg Fishel just posted on facebook that we will have plenty of precipitation around here but no cold. He said it looks like things really warm up, too. Maybe things will change at the end of January like they did last winter. But right now it looks like all those forecasts for above average snowfall here are a big bust.

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jburns

jburns

Posted
Posted

Greg Fishel just posted on facebook that we will have plenty of precipitation around here but no cold. He said it looks like things really warm up, too. Maybe things will change at the end of January like they did last winter. But right now it looks like all those forecasts for above average snowfall here are a big bust.

 

Meh.  One good storm and you're above average.  It's only late December.

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

Greg Fishel just posted on facebook that we will have plenty of precipitation around here but no cold. He said it looks like things really warm up, too. Maybe things will change at the end of January like they did last winter. But right now it looks like all those forecasts for above average snowfall here are a big bust.

 

We will flip between the 15-20th.  Enjoy the seasonal warmth the next couple of weeks, your going to be hating the cold by end of Jan.

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

We will flip between the 15-20th. Enjoy the seasonal warmth the next couple of weeks, your going to be hating the cold by end of Jan.

I will if it is cold and dry. That is why it is so frustrating to have all this precipitation lately and it be too warm for snow. I just hope things don't dry up when the cold comes.

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southernskimmer

southernskimmer

Posted
Posted

 

 

 

More bad news for snow lovers.....

While colder temperatures are definitely on the way for this week, mainly Tue-Fri, there is no indication of it being cold enough for snow when precipitation is occurring. And adding insult to injury may be a big warmup just after New Years. There is something called a teleconnection, and while not the be all and end all of weather forecasting, it does correlate upper level wind patterns in different parts of the world to temperature and precipitation patterns worldwide. Two such indices are the Arctic Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation. Generally, negative values of these 2 indices favor colder than normal weather in the eastern US, with positive values inferring the opposite. Both are trending negative now, but are forecast to go strongly positive just after New Years Day. I looked back through history at the last time both were strongly positive, and I came up with January 10-12 of 2006 and January 1-10, 2005. The former featured several days in the 60s, and the latter resulted in 7 days in the 70s! Not exactly the kind of news we snow lovers are looking for......

 

 

Geez

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