Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread II

[GlaringSun]

I was trying to figure out what you ment by big bucks ?

 

Oh, sorry. I meant big bucks as in a really good snowstorm

[NCSNOW]

Shame the cliff divers have dosed off.

[metwannabe]

I'll bet there's some spread on the GFS ENS tonight. Not staying up for the Euro but it might be interesting tonight.

Must be cause the trough is further east on the 00z GEFS and it's clear there will be members that don't keep the energy in the SW as long as the OP. 00z GEFS is colder than previous runs for sure

[CarolinaCrusher2000]

I sure wish these QBO numbers would come down soon. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data   If not, were waiting on the MJO coming through with phases 7,8, 1 and 2 later in January and February. I just hate to see winter days wasted like that.

[Shawn]

Dec and Jan aren't really good months for snow anyway in the south right ? February is our big snow month.

 

In Southern GA/SC, Midlands, Coastal areas Feb is climo around these parts.  You're a but further up so I'd suspect your climo to start by mid january, but larry would have to verify that.

 

Either way, we aren't really going to be climo if these current models are right in any area.  A couple brief cold shots here and there with an overrunning chance sometimes before mid jan.

 

With the HP(s) showing up (there was a monster 1059 earlier today over the SW/Plains), i'd be more worried about ice even into N. GA/NC in the not-too-far future.

[jburns]

Shame the cliff divers have dosed off.

 

So you're saying those who don't see the cold and snow have a drug problem?

[Marion_NC_WX]

Tonight's Euro screams overrunning ice potential for Interior North Carolina day 7-8. Plenty cold enough down to I-40 days 5-7... Then a system in the Plains is quickly running moisture out ahead before the airmass can totally moderate. Any sort of CAD could turn this into something interesting in a hurry!

[nchighcountrywx]

Good read on Joe Bastardi's blog yesterday.

 

For subscribers:

 

http://www.weatherbell.com/premium/joe-bastardi/out-of-nowhere-against-modeling-winter-attacks-europe

 

In it he discusses the previous forecast for a 30-45 period of outstanding cold for the US.

 

It appears solar activity and cycles have now trumped the analog based forecasts and have the upper hand and as most of us have already realized over the last 3 week.  Now Europe gets the real core of winter this year.

[Jon]

Good read on Joe Bastardi's blog yesterday.

 

For subscribers:

 

http://www.weatherbell.com/premium/joe-bastardi/out-of-nowhere-against-modeling-winter-attacks-europe

 

In it he discusses the previous forecast for a 30-45 period of outstanding cold for the US.

 

It appears solar activity and cycles have now trumped the analog based forecasts and have the upper hand and as most of us have already realized over the last 3 week.  Now Europe gets the real core of winter this year.

He didn't really mention the last sentence he just said the models forecasted warmth for this are (Scandinavia and south) and now it's showing a lot of snow and cold...essentially showing us model flips in another area of the globe, ha! But this is interesting as usually when there's a trough over this area, there is a deep ridge in the Atlantic and a trough over the east US....as bastardi alaways says when they're having fun LOOK OUT, etc. We'll see how it plays out and if models can trend with a trough in the east.

 

Last night's OP Euro -EPO is officially off the charts, past -5 on WxBell maps...so I don't know really how low it gets. Some other good news (I guess) the AO doesn't seem to be torching as bad positive...and there's trends downward toward neutral in most if not all models for a neutral AO/NAO or negative suite by the end of the first week of Jan...now this can trend earlier as always, the Euro even goes neutral at 10 days...but again we're at 10 days....10....more....days....Hopefully the models just missed Christmas and give us some festivities today. I'll be road tripping for 8 hours so I'll rely on some PBP by burger and others.

[GaWx]

KATL now looks very likely to end up with a warmer Dec (almost 50) than the cold (for Nov) 49 of Nov!

[packbacker]

He didn't really mention the last sentence he just said the models forecasted warmth for this are (Scandinavia and south) and now it's showing a lot of snow and cold...essentially showing us model flips in another area of the globe, ha! But this is interesting as usually when there's a trough over this area, there is a deep ridge in the Atlantic and a trough over the east US....as bastardi alaways says when they're having fun LOOK OUT, etc. We'll see how it plays out and if models can trend with a trough in the east.

 

Last night's OP Euro -EPO is officially off the charts, past -5 on WxBell maps...so I don't know really how low it gets. Some other good news (I guess) the AO doesn't seem to be torching as bad positive...and there's trends downward toward neutral in most if not all models for a neutral AO/NAO or negative suite by the end of the first week of Jan...now this can trend earlier as always, the Euro even goes neutral at 10 days...but again we're at 10 days....10....more....days....Hopefully the models just missed Christmas and give us some festivities today. I'll be road tripping for 8 hours so I'll rely on some PBP by burger and others.

 

So, we are back to the weeklies, JMA and now CFS calling for a torch January.  Feels good to accept that Jan is going to suck, just another 5 weeks until February.  February is going to rock...

 

JB said the next 3 out of 5 winters would be warm in the east, who knew he meant starting this winter.

 

It's fairly evident how this winter is going to turn out.

[packbacker]

Good read on Joe Bastardi's blog yesterday.

 

For subscribers:

 

http://www.weatherbell.com/premium/joe-bastardi/out-of-nowhere-against-modeling-winter-attacks-europe

 

In it he discusses the previous forecast for a 30-45 period of outstanding cold for the US.

 

It appears solar activity and cycles have now trumped the analog based forecasts and have the upper hand and as most of us have already realized over the last 3 week.  Now Europe gets the real core of winter this year.

 

Has he released his Jan forecast?  There is no way he can go cold, atleast not in the east, and when he releases it he will be essentially throwing his winter forecast (DJF) down the trash.

[franklin NCwx]

Euro ensembles now take the -epo off the charts, wpo negative as well. Siberian express in full gear.

Gefs are looking better going forward. Maybe we can turn this "modeled" pattern around.

[Jon]

So, we are back to the weeklies, JMA and now CFS calling for a torch January. Feels good to accept that Jan is going to suck, just another 5 weeks until February. February is going to rock...

JB said the next 3 out of 5 winters would be warm in the east, who knew he meant starting this winter.

It's fairly evident how this winter is going to turn out.

Hmm. The core of the cold near Hudson on those maps and Canada hasn't been negative for several runs before until recently yet none of that cold makes it east OR west this time? Especially with those deep pos anomalies over AK? Bollocks.

[packbacker]

Hmm. The core of the cold near Hudson on those maps and Canada hasn't been negative for several runs before until recently yet none of that cold makes it east OR west this time? Especially with those deep pos anomalies over AK? Bollocks.

 

Yeah, just looking at the temps, conus torch, ridge in the west but cold air is in Canada, so big +AO.  There isn't any getting around not having a -AO this winter.  SSW is our only hope at this point and at best that will be end of January at the point with effects not felt until Feb.

[Jon]

Yeah, just looking at the temps, conus torch, ridge in the west but cold air is in Canada, so big +AO. There isn't any getting around not having a -AO this winter. SSW is our only hope at this point and at best that will be end of January at the point with effects not felt until Feb.

I can buy the fab feb honestly but we all don't want to wait that long to see a favorable pattern. I'll just wait until Jan 15 or so to cancel Jan, just like I waited until mid month for Dec. I just can't cancel a month that early. It would be nice to see the trend to neutral AO/NAO by the 7th and get it negative for week 2-3.

[GaWx]

Has he released his Jan forecast? There is no way he can go cold, atleast not in the east, and when he releases it he will be essentially throwing his winter forecast (DJF) down the trash.

Pack,

JB tends to be very stubborn as I assume you realize. So, he wouldn't give in easily normally. The chances for an overall cold DJF winter for the E US are obviously diminishing though are still not yet close to zero since we technically still have all of Jan and Feb to go. However, absent a fairly rare major bust for the CFSv2 this late in the month prior, a huge bust for the Euro weeklies, and a bust for the GEFS AO forecast, his very cold E US forecast is in deep doodoo. The same could be said for LC as well as my -3 or colder for KATL and overall cold for the SE US. The OPI and Cohen's SAI based strong -AO idea has already moved to life support.

In summary, absent the kind of huge change experienced vs the late OCT warm fcast for Nov, the cold overall DJF forecasts would be down the "terlet" as Archie Bunker might have put it. However, I'm still not quite giving up as a repeat of the sudden 12Z GFS/Euro "OMG" very cold set of runs of a couple of days ago could change the outlook at any point. But this would need to occur very soon.

Edited

[franklin NCwx]

Pack,

JB tends to be very stubborn as I assume you realize. So, he wouldn't give in easily normally. The chances for an overall cold DJF winter for the E US are obviously diminishing though are still not yet close to zero since we technically still have all of Jan and Feb to go. However, absent a fairly rare major bust for the CFSv2 this late in the month prior, a huge bust for the Euro weeklies, and a bust for the GEFS AO forecast, his very cold E US forecast is in deep doodoo. The same could be said for LC as well as my -3 or colder for KATL and overall cold for the SE US. The OPI and Cohen's SAI based strong -AO idea has already moved to life support.

In summary, absent the kind of huge change experienced vs the late OCT warm fcast for Nov, the cold overall DJF forecasts would be down the "terlet" as Archie Bunker might have put it. However, I'm still not quite giving up as a repeat of the sudden 12Z GFS/Euro "OMG" very cold set of runs could change the outlook at any point. But this would need to occur very soon.

Larry, I will admit I have never been a big fan of the cfs so the only time I look at it anymore is when it's posted on this board. As far as the ao the 0z and 6z gfs ensembles bring it back to negative territory (6z more than 0z).cmc ensembles bring it slightly into negative territory as well. The biggest news is the off the charts epo, major arctic air will be staple of the pattern.

[GaWx]

Larry, I will admit I have never been a big fan of the cfs so the only time I look at it anymore is when it's posted on this board. As far as the ao the 0z and 6z gfs ensembles bring it back to negative territory (6z more than 0z).cmc ensembles bring it slightly into negative territory as well. The biggest news is the off the charts epo, major arctic air will be staple of the pattern.

Franklin,

As Pack and I have noted, the late month CFSv2 forecasts have shown some skill and have fairly rarely totally busted though the sample size isn't large. The very strong -EPO is a wild card that will keep us on our toes for a sudden forecast shift if we could suddenly regain a +PNA in the forecast to go along with it such as occurred at 12Z on Tuesday that got me about as excited as anytime recently. However, absent a shift to that kind of thing, the strong -EPO will do the SE little good as strong cold air aiming that far west of the SE would not allow for very cold in the SE. Bleeding cold would not be cold enough to salvage very cold DJF forecasts for the SE.

Edited

[franklin NCwx]

Franklin,

As Pack and I have noted, the late month CFSv2 forecasts have shown some skill and have fairly rarely totally busted. The very strong -EPO is a wild card that will keep us on our toes for a sudden forecast shift if we could suddenly regain a +PNA in the forecast to go along with it such as occurred at 12Z on Tuesday(?) that got me about as excited as anytime recently. However, absent a shift to that kind of thing, the strong -EPO will do the SE little good as strong cold air aiming that far west of the SE would not allow for very cold in the SE. Bleeding cold would not be cold enough to salvage very cold DJF forecasts for the SE.

Larry, I agree with +pna that would help greatly! I see hints of it on the gefs ,in fact after the cutoff is ejected the gefs keeps heights slightly above in the sw us. That should help keep the ridge offshore. Speaking of the gefs they have consistently showed below normal temps for the southeast (except Florida) after the first of the year. Let's see how that verifys.

[packbacker]

Larry, I agree with +pna that would help greatly! I see hints of it on the gefs ,in fact after the cutoff is ejected the gefs keeps heights slightly above in the sw us. That should help keep the ridge offshore. Speaking of the gefs they have consistently showed below normal temps for the southeast (except Florida) after the first of the year. Let's see how that verifys.

I agree, I wouldn't be surprised to see the modeling turn better in early Jan. If we forget all these epic winter forecasts that were released this winter is going fairly normal. Warm Dec, turning colder to start Jan, maybe relax mid-Jan, then all heck breaks loose.

I will probably have 10 winter cancel posts later today though :-)

I do like the CFS, but really only the last 3-4 runs of the month. Let's see what it shows the next few days.

[Met1985]

Great read guys. I will say this I am going to give solar activity a real hard look in the fall from know on. I do think that solar storms are no good for good blocking. Just like in 2012 through 2013. We had high solar activity. Seems like solar activity can trump just about everything else with blocking. Not ready to write off winter but this is very concerning.

[FallsLake]

Great read guys. I will say this I am going to give solar activity a real hard look in the fall from know on. I do think that solar storms are no good for good blocking. Just like in 2012 through 2013. We had high solar activity. Seems like solar activity can trump just about everything else with blocking. Not ready to write off winter but this is very concerning.

Current solar activity is low. The sun spot number is still at 100; which is high for this particular low solar maximum. There was an interesting development dealing with cosmic rays; on December 21st the numbers fell drastically. From past readings I think we actually want more cosmic rays for a cooler climate (...long term wise for developing more cloud cover, etc.). Full story here:

 

http://www.spaceweather.com/

[packbacker]

Great read guys. I will say this I am going to give solar activity a real hard look in the fall from know on. I do think that solar storms are no good for good blocking. Just like in 2012 through 2013. We had high solar activity. Seems like solar activity can trump just about everything else with blocking. Not ready to write off winter but this is very concerning.

Was looking at the graph Hky posted yesterday, the solar activity is similar to 02/03 and that was a very blocky winter. But, I do agree it would be nice if it was lower.

Edit: Only difference between 02/03 is we are in strong -QBO. That combination solar/-QBO is probably bad.

[GaWx]

Great read guys. I will say this I am going to give solar activity a real hard look in the fall from know on. I do think that solar storms are no good for good blocking. Just like in 2012 through 2013. We had high solar activity. Seems like solar activity can trump just about everything else with blocking. Not ready to write off winter but this is very concerning.

Met1985,

I've been one who has felt that the effect of the sun on late 20th century global warming has quite possibly been underestimated since 1950-2000 was the most active 50 year period in at least 350 years. So, I do pay attention to the sun. It has unexpectedly gotten quite active in recent weeks. IF this increased activity really has been a sig factor for the warmer E US (I don't know how that can be proven so soon by JB and others to be honest as it sounds more like a grasping of straws), look out below when we get what I expect to be an even weaker min than that of 2008-9 once we get to around the 2018-22 period, which could very well turn out to be the weakest sun since at least the early 1800's Dalton Minimum.

[FallsLake]

Just glancing at the 6z GFS temps for my area (N. NC), there is definitely no torch showing up in the LR. Nothing quit cold enough for frozed precip but we could actually average slightly below average the next couple of weeks. If we could then get a colder pattern to set in mid to late month, we would be primed to have an overall below average month.

 

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=12&model_dd=26&model_init_hh=06&fhour=150&parameter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

[NCSNOW]

So you're saying those who don't see the cold and snow have a drug problem?[/qu

LOL. They got drug into the world's greatest winter pattern fantasy land with the rest if us, including yours truly. I just haven't stepped over to the dark side as its referred to now. Atleast not yet officially.

[NCSNOW]

After a history making cold November.

For December so far RDU is only .9 above normal temp wise and PTI is is +2. 3 days really carry the weight keeping rdu barely above average temp wise for the month. Not suprised even without any true artic air all month, we've had an abundance of cloudy days to keep temps in check for the most part.

[Carvers Gap]

Gotcha, HKY. I agree with you in that I think I plays a role. We talk about the great blocking in 09/10, but the winters around 09/10, we don't hear much about them. Solar activity was low from about 2005 on through 2011 or so, according to that chart.

Solar activity spiked in December. We dodged a bullet when an area of high activity was pointed diectly at us and didn't discharge. Communications have been hit on a small scale. The max is lower, but the max occured in December. I think there is a definite connection. In 09-10, the sun was empty of sun spots. The solar flux was at record lows. It took a potentially warm winter and it went frigid. An argument might also be made for last Jan, but my memory is a bit blurry there. And I agree, solar activity should be taken into account. The 90s had record activity and it was warm. Now the next cycle is predicted off the last one. May be a minimum type of cycle. We will see....

[HKY_WX]

So, we are back to the weeklies, JMA and now CFS calling for a torch January.  Feels good to accept that Jan is going to suck, just another 5 weeks until February.  February is going to rock...

 

JB said the next 3 out of 5 winters would be warm in the east, who knew he meant starting this winter.

 

It's fairly evident how this winter is going to turn out.

That's a pretty ridiculous statement from him. He normally can't get the next 2 weeks right.