HKY_WX Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 I think the statistics still favor at least one event of magnitude this winter just based on weak el-nino climo in this area. Whether we switch to a much colder pattern sometime in January remains to be seen. Personally I still think sun spots and sun levels have an impact on the AO and it always scares me when the Sun is active during winter months. I am looking forward to the future lower sun activity, b/c I think that could play a role in colder winters down the road. In the meantime enjoy the warmer weather, to me the cold/dry of some winters is miserable. I love playing golf the day before an ice or snowstorm... Merry Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Some good news (maybe?) CFSv2 looks like it's undecided on January, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 I love playing golf the day before an ice or snowstorm... Merry Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Some good news (maybe?) CFSv2 looks like it's undecided on January, too. it doesn't look undecided for the western us. I wonder why it's so consistent for the west but so inconsistent in the eastern half ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 I think the statistics still favor at least one event of magnitude this winter just based on weak el-nino climo in this area. Whether we switch to a much colder pattern sometime in January remains to be seen. Personally I still think sun spots and sun levels have an impact on the AO and it always scares me when the Sun is active during winter months. I am looking forward to the future lower sun activity, b/c I think that could play a role in colder winters down the road. In the meantime enjoy the warmer weather, to me the cold/dry of some winters is miserable. I love playing golf the day before an ice or snowstorm... Merry Christmas I totally agree about the sun's activity. I would think the flares of the past month are playing havoc with the magnetic field. Has to have an impact on the stratosphere. Weak solar activity of the past cycle has led to recent cold winters IMO. The next cycle should be very, very weak. Great observation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Some good news (maybe?) CFSv2 looks like it's undecided on January, too. Was just looking at that, it did bust hard for Nov, but so did everyone else. It's been pretty good the past few winters, I think it had 1 out 9 that busted and it's going to nail Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 it doesn't look undecided for the western us. I wonder why it's so consistent for the west but so inconsistent in the eastern half ? I feel like models are still out to lunch on exactly how the ridge forms..you can see some outlooks with a very warm AK but some back off...to me the latest IC is a strong signal for a strongly -EPO which we're headed towards...the other idea is where the heck the PV is going to drop, how cold it will be and whether or not any of that will go east. I guess there's a lot of reasons why it's undecided on the east coast. You can see on the last 3 runs there is widespread cold in Canada, that's a good sign to me at least the model is putting the cold on our side of the globe...the other factor is where it goes after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 th.gif I've done that before lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 I totally agree about the sun's activity. I would think the flares of the past month are playing havoc with the magnetic field. Has to have an impact on the stratosphere. Weak solar activity of the past cycle has led to recent cold winters IMO. The next cycle should be very, very weak. Great observation. Thanks, the future cycle of lower sunspots(or even no sunspots) is pretty exciting from a winter lover's perspective. If these forecasts are right, we could see some radically colder winters ahead. I will always remember how dead the sun was in the 09-10 winter. Back to this winter, if we could see the el-nino continue to trend west based, that will only help matters as we head through winter. Region 4 will hopefully continue to trend upwards. This generally sets up a favorable Aleutian low/western US ridge anomaly. Don't give up hope, the back end of winter still offers some good chances I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 I've done that before lol. Ditto - Me not in Gainesville (but once - exactly 25 years ago to the day when we actually had a white X-Mas), but me many times mostly on the lee side of Lake Michigan back in the '70's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 I thought that this solar max was still pretty low on the scale. Is that not true? If solar was the magic bullet, then every year with a solar min would be cold, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 I thought that this solar max was still pretty low on the scale. Is that not true? If solar was the magic bullet, then every year with a solar min would be cold, right? This is a pretty decent nasa gif. Personally I think it's a factor in the equation, how much of a factor remains to be seen. I've always wanted to do research into a sunspot/AO link, but never have. Looking at the past data during the maunder minimum, it's hard to argue the sun doesn't play a large role. If forecasts of it trailing off again similar to that time period are accurate, that's pretty exciting from a snow lovers perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Gotcha, HKY. I agree with you in that I think I plays a role. We talk about the great blocking in 09/10, but the winters around 09/10, we don't hear much about them. Solar activity was low from about 2005 on through 2011 or so, according to that chart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Well the 00z GFS PARA is coming out ALOT colder @123...has the PV dropping into the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Well the 00z GFS PARA is coming out ALOT colder @123...has the PV dropping into the east. By like, 700 miles... LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Burger this is my 1st post of the season, Just bring us something to work with. If you'd be so kind! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 GFS PARA looks like it's close to giving us an overrunning event @171. By the way 00z GFS was colder as well but not cutting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 The Para is legitimately really cold in the D6-7 period. Looking at 10-15+ degrees below average for most of the SE. Probably lows in the 10s for NC (20s for SC/GA lowlands, probably) and single digits in the NC/TN/VA mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Is it just me or is the LR GFS trying to build back a +PNA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Looks like the GGEM is finally folding on the massive snowstorm it had been showing for the Mid-Atlantic on Monday for the last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 if the CMC keeps pushing the cold air mass east, we could be in for big bucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 if the CMC keeps pushing the cold air mass east, we could be in for big bucks. Can you translate this into something weather related ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Can you translate this into something weather related ?? Sorry, I'm very amateur on how weather works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Sorry, I'm very amateur on how weather works. We all are! (Mostly anyway) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 CMC has an icing event for NC @207. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 The 00z GGEM looks potentially icy for N AL/N MS and maybe NC down the road. EDIT: And Burger confirms it. It's a Christmas Miracle!!! Kind of looks like it could start out as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Only like .5 of QPF as ice for the CAD areas of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Sorry, I'm very amateur on how weather works. I was trying to figure out what you ment by big bucks ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Only like .5 of QPF as ice for the CAD areas of NC. Looks like it has the northwestern Piedmont (GSO, etc.) hanging on to sub-freezing temperatures nearly to the end of the storm. Sort of reminiscent of March 2014 in that regard. It seems like the Canadian sometimes overdoes low-level cold in the LR, though, so I'm not sure if it could be a bias or what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 I'll bet there's some spread on the GFS ENS tonight. Not staying up for the Euro but it might be interesting tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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