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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread II


JoshM

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If that energy kicks out though quick enough don't we have a better chance of it staying suppressed and helping suck in some of that colder air just to our north?

Oh, I see what you're saying. You're thinking about it from a storm potential. I'm thinking about it wrt it's affect on the overall pattern. I'don't what it does. Either way, I don't think it's going to result in much winter weather. You'd have a better shot than me though if it did come out and stay south. I think it will probably not come out. But that's just a guess really.

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Oh, I see what you're saying. You're thinking about it from a storm potential. I'm thinking about it wrt it's affect on the overall pattern. I'don't what it does. Either way, I don't think it's going to result in much winter weather. You'd have a better shot than me though if it did come out and stay south. I think it will probably not come out. But that's just a guess really.

 

I don't know man it's looking pretty close to a launch east @132. Totally different from 12z today. 12z @141 had it in the central Cali coast at 2-3 contours...18z @135 has it almost in NV at 2 contours. Still has time to stall out there though. Overall the 18z is a little warmer. 

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Last year it was Jan 21 when we got winter going. Still plenty of time as probably will be close to that time again before we get going good. Models have not been consistent all year so need to watch every model run and lose sleep because not our way. It will snow in due time

we got winter going in November this year, so we are way ahead of where we were last year !
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I don't know man it's looking pretty close to a launch east @132. Totally different from 12z today. 12z @141 had it in the central Cali coast at 2-3 contours...18z @135 has it almost in NV at 2 contours. Still has time to stall out there though. Overall the 18z is a little warmer.

That's what kind of afraid of...even if it does come out, I think it just might be too warm. There's not a lot of cold in the pattern yet.

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we got winter going in November this year, so we are way ahead of where we were last year !

hum hum ...

 

My concerns were with a cold Nov (posted repeatedly way back then); never seen a cold Nov pan out until real late in the season, if then at all. But oh well, that's just a lifelong observation without scientific back-up.

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The new one month JMA is absolutely horrible. It torches the entire east coast week 2. No cold anywhere for all 30 days. Not a good look but if that comes to fruition that means the JMA busted hardcore on Jan, along with every other seasonal. All I can say is wow.

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BMerry Christmas everyone!  Had a down moment and wanted to come by and say that.  I will say, I agree, Burger, Jon CR and probably others....I think the pattern WILL produce at some point.  Its only a matter of TIME IMHO.  Noticed a few changes today.  The ridge really tries to get beat up, and its not as wet either.  Its wet for the weekend, and the NYD ish storm, but some changes *for the better IMO* at 500mb level.  Glad to see the changes still showing.  Lets get them at freakin' D5 and in.  LOL

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Euro weeklies are an absolute disaster in weeks 3 & 4 lol. Bermuda high FTL. It is best to laugh in these situations. Remember it is only wx. Enjoy that wx as it is the only wx you've got.

 

Well atleast we would be warm.  Time to go buy the pre-emergent. 

 

:sizzle:

 

Haven't updated on WB yet, hoping atleast day 32 give us hope.   :facepalm:

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Euro weeklies are an absolute disaster in weeks 3 & 4 lol. Bermuda high FTL. It is best to laugh in these situations. Remember it is only wx. Enjoy that wx as it is the only wx you've got.

 

My goodness, that is a conus torch for week 3 on the weeklies.  LOL, I still thought the -EPO would hold on and central US would be cold.

 

Edit:  week 4 does bring back the -EPO but also a -PNA, so back to the cold west warm east.  

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My goodness, that is a conus torch for week 3 on the weeklies. LOL, I still thought the -EPO would hold on and central US would be cold.

Edit: week 4 does bring back the -EPO but also a -PNA, so back to the cold west warm east.

that makes me feel a little bit better that it won't be just us torching.
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I'm not a huge fan of the current "modeled" pattern showing up on the eps. Is does look pretty bad with the eastern ridge and low heights in Canada. It does build an epo ridge on roids and brings higher heights into the Arctic later in the run. So we should have chances with true arctic air into the pattern via cross polar flow. That said the usually reliable eps have performed badly over the last few weeks. What was once forecasted to be a nice -nao with eastern us trough has turned out to be false. Hopefully we can see a trend towards a better pattern with building heights over Canada. Merry Christmas!

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I'm not a huge fan of the current "modeled" pattern showing up on the eps. Is does look pretty bad with the eastern ridge and low heights in Canada. It does build an epo ridge on roids and brings higher heights into the Arctic later in the run. So we should have chances with true arctic air into the pattern via cross polar flow. That said the usually reliable eps have performed badly over the last few weeks. What was once forecasted to be a nice -nao with eastern us trough has turned out to be false. Hopefully we can see a trend towards a better pattern with building heights over Canada. Merry Christmas!

Good post, Franklin. All modeling has performed badly. All of it.

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Good post, Franklin. All modeling has performed badly. All of it.

thanks, I will add that over the last couple of days the models have shown a much better push of colder air against what looks to be a weaker ridge. This still leaves the door open for the new years timeframe. Of course the farther northwest you are the better.
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winter in Florida?

Yes - it happens; frequently; more so in N Fla than you might imagine (want some stats?); Fla is not homogeneous .....

 

You might be expecting some frozen precip this time of year - I'm expecting at least high 20's low 30's through Jan - other than a 24 in Nov, we're well above our normal cold here.

 

This ain't Orlando or Tampa or Miami

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Yes - it happens; frequently; more so in N Fla than you might imagine (want some stats?); Fla is not homogeneous .....

You might be expecting some frozen precip this time of year - I'm expecting at least high 20's low 30's through Jan - other than a 24 in Nov, we're well above our normal cold here.

This ain't Orlando or Tampa or Miami

don't worry. Its been very mild here too. We are struggling just to make it to freezing at night. Usually it's no problem getting below freezing this time of year. You gotta love warm winters.
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