Cold Rain Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 If that energy kicks out though quick enough don't we have a better chance of it staying suppressed and helping suck in some of that colder air just to our north? Oh, I see what you're saying. You're thinking about it from a storm potential. I'm thinking about it wrt it's affect on the overall pattern. I'don't what it does. Either way, I don't think it's going to result in much winter weather. You'd have a better shot than me though if it did come out and stay south. I think it will probably not come out. But that's just a guess really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Thanks Jon! On the 18z that energy out west is much more progressive out to 123 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Oh, I see what you're saying. You're thinking about it from a storm potential. I'm thinking about it wrt it's affect on the overall pattern. I'don't what it does. Either way, I don't think it's going to result in much winter weather. You'd have a better shot than me though if it did come out and stay south. I think it will probably not come out. But that's just a guess really. I don't know man it's looking pretty close to a launch east @132. Totally different from 12z today. 12z @141 had it in the central Cali coast at 2-3 contours...18z @135 has it almost in NV at 2 contours. Still has time to stall out there though. Overall the 18z is a little warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Last year it was Jan 21 when we got winter going. Still plenty of time as probably will be close to that time again before we get going good. Models have not been consistent all year so need to watch every model run and lose sleep because not our way. It will snow in due time we got winter going in November this year, so we are way ahead of where we were last year ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 I don't know man it's looking pretty close to a launch east @132. Totally different from 12z today. 12z @141 had it in the central Cali coast at 2-3 contours...18z @135 has it almost in NV at 2 contours. Still has time to stall out there though. Overall the 18z is a little warmer. That's what kind of afraid of...even if it does come out, I think it just might be too warm. There's not a lot of cold in the pattern yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 18z at 5h....cutoff spins off into two cutoffs then spins back into one all the while staying in NV. Meanwhile all the cold air in Canada is nowhere to be found. Wild run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 we got winter going in November this year, so we are way ahead of where we were last year ! hum hum ... My concerns were with a cold Nov (posted repeatedly way back then); never seen a cold Nov pan out until real late in the season, if then at all. But oh well, that's just a lifelong observation without scientific back-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 The new one month JMA is absolutely horrible. It torches the entire east coast week 2. No cold anywhere for all 30 days. Not a good look but if that comes to fruition that means the JMA busted hardcore on Jan, along with every other seasonal. All I can say is wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Jon, Yikes. Phil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 BMerry Christmas everyone! Had a down moment and wanted to come by and say that. I will say, I agree, Burger, Jon CR and probably others....I think the pattern WILL produce at some point. Its only a matter of TIME IMHO. Noticed a few changes today. The ridge really tries to get beat up, and its not as wet either. Its wet for the weekend, and the NYD ish storm, but some changes *for the better IMO* at 500mb level. Glad to see the changes still showing. Lets get them at freakin' D5 and in. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 594 dm SE ridge showing up now on a few frames this evening.Stronger than previous runs(588 dm) Continue on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Euro weeklies are an absolute disaster in weeks 3 & 4 lol. Bermuda high FTL. It is best to laugh in these situations. Remember it is only wx. Enjoy that wx as it is the only wx you've got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Euro weeklies are an absolute disaster in weeks 3 & 4 lol. Bermuda high FTL. It is best to laugh in these situations. Remember it is only wx. Enjoy that wx as it is the only wx you've got. Well atleast we would be warm. Time to go buy the pre-emergent. Haven't updated on WB yet, hoping atleast day 32 give us hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 18z at 5h....cutoff spins off into two cutoffs then spins back into one all the while staying in NV. Meanwhile all the cold air in Canada is nowhere to be found. Wild run. The pattern from last Sat gave us flakes, the pattern for next week is better....just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Euro weeklies are an absolute disaster in weeks 3 & 4 lol. Bermuda high FTL. It is best to laugh in these situations. Remember it is only wx. Enjoy that wx as it is the only wx you've got. My goodness, that is a conus torch for week 3 on the weeklies. LOL, I still thought the -EPO would hold on and central US would be cold. Edit: week 4 does bring back the -EPO but also a -PNA, so back to the cold west warm east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 My goodness, that is a conus torch for week 3 on the weeklies. LOL, I still thought the -EPO would hold on and central US would be cold. Edit: week 4 does bring back the -EPO but also a -PNA, so back to the cold west warm east. that makes me feel a little bit better that it won't be just us torching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 that makes me feel a little bit better that it won't be just us torching. Man that's just mean. I thought the same thing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 I'm not a huge fan of the current "modeled" pattern showing up on the eps. Is does look pretty bad with the eastern ridge and low heights in Canada. It does build an epo ridge on roids and brings higher heights into the Arctic later in the run. So we should have chances with true arctic air into the pattern via cross polar flow. That said the usually reliable eps have performed badly over the last few weeks. What was once forecasted to be a nice -nao with eastern us trough has turned out to be false. Hopefully we can see a trend towards a better pattern with building heights over Canada. Merry Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 I'm not a huge fan of the current "modeled" pattern showing up on the eps. Is does look pretty bad with the eastern ridge and low heights in Canada. It does build an epo ridge on roids and brings higher heights into the Arctic later in the run. So we should have chances with true arctic air into the pattern via cross polar flow. That said the usually reliable eps have performed badly over the last few weeks. What was once forecasted to be a nice -nao with eastern us trough has turned out to be false. Hopefully we can see a trend towards a better pattern with building heights over Canada. Merry Christmas! Good post, Franklin. All modeling has performed badly. All of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 that makes me feel a little bit better that it won't be just us torching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Good post, Franklin. All modeling has performed badly. All of it.thanks, I will add that over the last couple of days the models have shown a much better push of colder air against what looks to be a weaker ridge. This still leaves the door open for the new years timeframe. Of course the farther northwest you are the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Just got a look at the weeklies. Don't buy the quick breakdown of the epo ridge especially after it went off the charts on the 12Z eps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Lets see - forecast says starting tomorrow - 72, 78, 80, 78, 75, 72, 80, 78, 75, 72, 72, 72, 78 ...... this is supposed to be .... Oh never mind .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Lets see - forecast says starting tomorrow - 72, 78, 80, 78, 75, 72, 80, 78, 75, 72, 72, 72, 78 ...... this is supposed to be .... Oh never mind .... winter in Florida? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Lets see - forecast says starting tomorrow - 72, 78, 80, 78, 75, 72, 80, 78, 75, 72, 72, 72, 78 ...... this is supposed to be .... Oh never mind .... That's crazy. I thought your average high was like 67 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 winter in Florida? Yes - it happens; frequently; more so in N Fla than you might imagine (want some stats?); Fla is not homogeneous ..... You might be expecting some frozen precip this time of year - I'm expecting at least high 20's low 30's through Jan - other than a 24 in Nov, we're well above our normal cold here. This ain't Orlando or Tampa or Miami Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 That's crazy. I thought your average high was like 67 ? Yes it is crazy === I'd give a silver dollar at this point for a few weeks of climo "normal" = Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Yes - it happens; frequently; more so in N Fla than you might imagine (want some stats?); Fla is not homogeneous ..... You might be expecting some frozen precip this time of year - I'm expecting at least high 20's low 30's through Jan - other than a 24 in Nov, we're well above our normal cold here. This ain't Orlando or Tampa or Miami don't worry. Its been very mild here too. We are struggling just to make it to freezing at night. Usually it's no problem getting below freezing this time of year. You gotta love warm winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 winter in Florida?Winter in Atlanta!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Winter in Atlanta!? Winter anywhere in the SE? OK - through with my whining .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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