Cold Rain Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 And if we can time a high that can tap some of that -25C 850MB air, who cares if it doesn't make a big initial push south? Yep. I will just be glad to get it in the neighborhood for starters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Pack is just having his yearly existential weather crisis. I was just commenting what it was showing :-). Didnt say it was right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 New webcast video with models and all that fun times ahead recording now. Should be up in about 45 mins or less. I will let yall know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 I was looking forward for something between Christmas and New Years. Now folks are saying maybe between 12/30 and 1/5. I know it is only 5 days, but I hope we don't start pushing things back every week. Just have to be patient I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 18z GFS goes BOOM for New Years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 1032 high and 540 line is about 50-75 miles farther south at 186 HR as we get into burger's target frame... EDIT: Burger called this one. Nice one, man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 18z GFS goes BOOM for New Years. yes it does...Notice how its further SOUTH with the upper low and more consolidated with the energy for the Christmas storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 sorry it took awhile to get the video up, just takes a while to make sure my maps look good for y'all. The video is a bit shorter today as well. Thanks everyone for liking my FB page and sharing the videos and the page with your friends. You can invite as many as y'all want. Shameless plug. I really think the pattern change is going to be very good. There are some VERY encouraging sings to the models *both OP and ENS* Enjoy! Let me know what y'all think please. More shout outs today as well. Thanks for the help with the maps today as well. https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 18z GFS goes BOOM for New Years. And right on cue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 50/50 low is much closer to SE Canada this run, which pushes 1030 mb high into New England and completely blocked our NYE low from cutting with assist from 1046 mb high in Upper Plains. As result, our NYE low is behaving like classic Miller A low and the cold is in place for this one Now, let get some consistence going... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 That 18z GFS run doesn't make sense to me. How can that surface low that develops around Louisana/Mississippi plow directly through a 1028 high over the great lakes/northeast? Not buying what that's selling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 18Z makes no sense to me either - a 2m low of 40º across the entire run here - almost unheard of, even here, this time of year. Almost toast, I suppose. Should at worst be seeing some 20's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Verbatim there would be two waves between the 30th-2nd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 GFS parallel is a train wreck on a dumpster fire in the LR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 GFS parallel is a train wreck on a dumpster fire in the LRI thought it was not running over the weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Thank you guys for all the likes on fb page. Can't TY enough. Yes the GFS is at least showing us the potential this pattern will have. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 GFS parallel is a train wreck on a dumpster fire in the LR Had a bomb at 12Z. The upgrade sucks. I expect more delays on its launch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Had a bomb at 12Z. The upgrade sucks. I expect more delays on its launch It's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Ya, I wouldn't expect that to go operational anytime soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Ya, I wouldn't expect that to go operational anytime soon I wouldn't bet on it though. Delay would require an admission of failure by someone in a government organization. I can happen, but it as rare as a southern blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Since the PARA and AO are popular topics, FWIW the PARA has kept the AO negative and at least been consistent when the normal GFS has been all over the place. Take a look at Dec 15th-20th and how the GFS vs PARA has done. Just an observation. Regular GFS PARA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I wouldn't bet on it though. Delay would require an admission of failure by someone in a government organization. I can happen, but it as rare as a southern blizzard. It's already been delayed once. It's horrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Ummm does the gfs have the closed low over the Texas/Arkansas/Oklahoma boarders? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Ummm does the gfs have the closed low over the Texas/Arkansas/Oklahoma boarders? Sent from my iPhone It does. Much further south. It goes bonkers on QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 GFS waking up, 138hr very impressive with the cold coming in on 12/26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Yall left off the part about the 50/50 low and 1040 hp sliding into NY, didn't you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 It does. Much further south. It goes bonkers on QPF. Goodness yes it does. Hmmm..this is an interesting trend...IMO I wonder if the EURO will follow suit. A very weird run, but I could see how that could work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 GFS waking up, 138hr very impressive with the cold coming in on 12/26 Jon, I appreciate your posts very informative keep up the good work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Jon, I appreciate your posts very informative keep up the good work! Thanks man I appreciate it! Edit: the cold is definitely more impressive on our side of the globe and the center of the core is more east for sure.... -26 at 850 in the hudson bay by 189. If this verifies we shouldn't have a problem with snow chances after 204....core of cold headed for hudson bay, exactly what we want. -30+ by 204, -36 by 240... the cold is so freaking impressive that it suppresses the storm the last run had. This is a good sign though IMO, we could see a healthy mix of the two but I really like where the cold is centered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Major cold on the 0z gfs. Everything is suppressed w/ the strong push of cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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