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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread II


JoshM

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Rinse, cycle, repeat

 

Just keep showing the look it has next week and keep stepping down with the cold. We all think Jan/Feb of last year was awesome but if you read the threads you would think it was a horrible winter just before storms showed up in both months. I'll take my chances with this and take may chances with the models showing colder air arriving in Canada. Will it dump all in the southwest? It could....but I would rather have cold dropping down then what was going on in December. 

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MJO Map courtesy of distro by WxRisk.com that were sourced from work from Kyle MacRitchie off of the CFS..

 

http://www.kylemacritchie.com/real-time-maps/realtime-mjo/

 

MJO Index

This is modeled after the Wheeler and Hendon (2004) RMM phase space and is most similar to a similar approach that I’ve written about in MacRitchie and Roundy (2012). This approach uses the CFS MJO projections, as used in other figures on this website, to track the MJO. This results in a smoother signal than the WH04 index with less interference from other modes

 

We were discussing the MJO a week or so back after it started diving into the circle of death foretelling that something might not work out as planned with the pattern change.    So far, that appears to have played out.

 

If this hold credence, we gots 3+ weeks of waiting ahead of us.

 

The MJO was certainly on our side in the early winter snow we had back in late October and November.

 

SHZ3r1c.png

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I don't the think the euro was bad at all. If you live west of the apps for ark, tenn, extreme northern bama and miss the setup screams ice threat . Now it sucked for areas east of the apps. Then of course we have an over phased cutter day ten which will look 100% different at 00z . 12z was a big improvement for areas west of the apps

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I don't the think the euro was bad at all. If you live west of the apps for ark, tenn, extreme northern bama and miss the setup screams ice threat . Now it sucked for areas east of the apps. Then of course we have an over phased cutter day ten which will look 100% different at 00z . 12z was a big improvement for areas west of the apps

Of course, if you lived west of the Apps, you'd probably be in the TV forum. :P

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Just keep showing the look it has next week and keep stepping down with the cold. We all think Jan/Feb of last year was awesome but if you read the threads you would think it was a horrible winter just before storms showed up in both months. I'll take my chances with this and take may chances with the models showing colder air arriving in Canada. Will it dump all in the southwest? It could....but I would rather have cold dropping down then what was going on in December. 

 

Models were pretty good at the overall synoptic pattern last year, it did struggle with individual events.  Look at these 2 Euro-EPS maps from last winter compared with what happened.  Looks great, if the models showed this we should be a lot more optimistic....

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post-2311-0-85615300-1419538290_thumb.pn

post-2311-0-88152700-1419538298_thumb.pn

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Rinse, cycle, repeat

Sad but true! We're suppose to be having a monster storm cutting through the lakes yesterday and bringing in the cold and possible flurries, according to runs about 7 days ago!? Now it's a dud and 60+ degrees today! Model and storm fail! It was suppose to dislodge the cold, but not so much! It's gonna be hard to wait till February to get threats/ pattern changes !
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Models were showing that type of pattern not too long ago. Also I think that map you showed is from that real cold dry spell we had.

 

There was 3 minor events in that period, the last one came at the end, PGV jackpotted, as usual.  RDU was fringed but there was atleast chances.  It's not the pattern I would draw up, I am still waiting on the -AO/-NAO/+PNA pattern to develop.

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Lol so now one eps run sets the table for chicagos winter

How is the pattern change coming along? Getting closer to something wintery in your back yard? Are the models still wrong?

Seriously, are you going to come over to the dark side? We have cookies!!! We will accept even the most optimistic posters who have had it with he broken promises.

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How is the pattern change coming along? Getting closer to something wintery in your back yard? Are the models still wrong?

Seriously, are you going to come over to the dark side? We have cookies!!! We will accept even the most optimistic posters who have had it with he broken promises.

pattern has changed. But as always it does not mean snow in your backyard.

You are getting want you wanted low heights and cold air.

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pattern has changed. But as always it does not mean snow in your backyard.

You are getting want you wanted low heights and cold air.

The pattern has changed, of course it has. But the pattern change people were looking for hasn't happened and now isn't in the cards. We now have to wait for another pattern change and hope it favors the SE. finally getting my lower heights in Canada and look what it's going to give us.....I totally agree with you and have stated this a few times in the past few weeks during #patternchangeddon.
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Models were pretty good at the overall synoptic pattern last year, it did struggle with individual events.  Look at these 2 Euro-EPS maps from last winter compared with what happened.  Looks great, if the models showed this we should be a lot more optimistic....

 

I want to see what they looked like Dec 25th....cause looking back it wasn't pretty. 

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Agreed! Thus why I think the next 2-3 weeks are going to suck.

 

I'm not disagreeing with you totally. I think it's more than likely the next two weeks probably won't show much. I'm just still interested in late next week. I think it's a little foolish to throw in the towel totally for our areas when you have 2m freezing line and 850's hovering just around border of NC/VA and some big highs out there. Wildcard is the evolution at 5h which admittedly doesn't look so hot at the moment. 

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I'm not disagreeing with you totally. I think it's more than likely the next two weeks probably won't show much. I'm just still interested in late next week. I think it's a little foolish to throw in the towel totally for our areas when you have 2m freezing line and 850's hovering just around border of NC/VA and some big highs out there. Wildcard is the evolution at 5h which admittedly doesn't look so hot at the moment.

Agreed, long shot, not impossible though.

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I talked about this in banter but looking at flow of the Pac with that big cutoff it's going to be about placement. Check out the 12z. You can see that big cutoff forming and hanging on in Cali. The energy just south west of it is moving west but just gets shunted to the south and then starts to get absorbed. This stops the cutoff from getting kicked. If that cutoff falls further south then energy coming out of the Pac should force it east....that's what we need to keep an eye on. Temps are just borderline enough and there should be enough confluence that it would stay suppressed. 

 

Ob7wznol.png

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I want to see what they looked like Dec 25th....cause looking back it wasn't pretty.

Here you go Burger some pics from my blog c0d044ce09cf820ea3fe875681977ab6.jpgadaf806257ae05c7938e5485a0ce4c78.jpg8967ea4a002ff6e3f913eaf866aa67b4.jpg9e0d642c5c7a211a1e4ff06e0448b37d.jpg

We were seeing some crap for a while last year until the models went nuts dropping the PV...that first image haha.

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