burgertime Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 All may not be lost. There is now a kicker so that energy in the SW should kick east. Confluence in the NE should help keep it south. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Joe Bastardi (@BigJoeBastardi) 12/25/14, 01:08 Cold stretching from Asia, through Europe into Africa where snow is forecast on n coast. Italy e coast too pic.twitter.com/ml7eRtSsv3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 That energy in the west refuses to kick. Wouldn't be surprised if this looks colder in the LR just due to how it looks up north. GFS PARA also coming in looking better out to 141....it aint beautiful but it also isn't 2011/12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 This one took a baby step in the right direction. That energy at 5h is really screwing us cutting off in California and just hanging around for days. Need something to kick it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 @171 on the PARA looks like the PV is about the flex it's muscle on the east to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Model trends have been quite disappointing to me over the last few runs in terms of early Jan. cold potential due to the cold aiming for the SW US. Intense cold aiming that far west of the SE rarely does much good for at least GA/SC/NC. If anything, it is a bad thing on average as that tends to allow for ridging near the SE. Let's hope this awful trend reverses soon. Otherwise, Jan. is liable to not start off too well. The latest GEFS AO forecast is looking downright ugly: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif Hopefully, the latest two CFSv2's don't come to pass or it would probably be a long, boring Jan and the polar opposite of what I've been expecting: (CFSv2 has shown some skill this close to the month being forecasted, unfortunately): http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20141225.201501.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20141224.201501.gif Edit: At KATL, Dec. has a good shot at ending up warmer than Nov. Edit: The 12Z GFS is starting off in the crapper (through 96). Ugly! Agreed, I think this will be a great wintery pattern for the OH-V into the interior NE the next 2 weeks. We will be on the wrong side of the SLP track, but we will be wet and battling seasonal to cool. I don't think we will be in the 60's or anything, which is unfortunate, as that would be a welcome reprieve from this really bad pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Good news is this run is looking much better in the 240 range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 PARA is really close to a big one. One thing I want to see by Sunday. Does the GFS continue to relax the SE ridge allowing colder air to spill in? Do those big highs get better placement? Where does the PV actually end up dropping? Lots of questions still need to be answered before we close the book entirely on next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 GFS PARA has a big low bombing out off the coast @192.....huge PV in eastern Canada....but all that cold air can't get past the Apps it's cockblocking us! Also keeps a low in the great lakes area. Darn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Agreed, I think this will be a great wintery pattern for the OH-V into the interior NE the next 2 weeks. We will be on the wrong side of the SLP track, but we will be wet and battling seasonal to cool. I don't think we will be in the 60's or anything, which is unfortunate, as that would be a welcome reprieve from this really bad pattern. This pattern could well for west tenn northern miss and Arkansas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 12z GfS was a huge improvement over yesterday's runs . Western ridge was a bit east and it never took a beating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 CMC looks pretty durn close to something @180. Not quite cold enough though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 12z GfS was a huge improvement over yesterday's runs . Western ridge was a bit east and it never took a beating Just got a chance to look at the 12z GFS, and I agree. I actually like the day 6 setup. In my opinion, this look could lead to something good. **at this point I'm trying to only focus on day 7 and below. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_144_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=144&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141225+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Just got a chance to look at the 12z GFS, and I agree. I actually like the day 6 setup. In my opinion, this look could lead to something good. **at this point I'm trying to only focus on day 7 and below. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_144_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=144&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141225+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 I agree...for everyone who is doom and gloom about this there are still a lot of things in the air. For instance once cold comes if it does the way the GFS has it.....in a lot of cases in the past it tends to stick around a little longer. Also with good placement of high models tend to undercut how cold it actually is. Just need a little movement and we can get something good....can also go really bad with a little movement. That's the chance you take living in the south though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 This pattern could well for west tenn northern miss and Arkansas Agreed. I could see Dallas to Memphis to KY up through the interior NE really going nuts the next 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 CMC looks pretty durn close to something @180. Not quite cold enough though. That will be theme for a while for us, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Big fail on the PV split, it battles the warming, but the warming fades and it re-stregthens. If this is correct it's going to be Feb before a split occurs, or I should say, if a split were to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 I finally got a chance to look at the GFS. It evolves pretty nicely, actually. The energy that cuts off in the SW is NOT a/the problem. If you look at H5 around 168 or so, you have a block over top of the cutoff and a clear split flow. The trajectories into the US are clearly out of the NW and the PV is in eastern Canada. The ridge out west remains pretty much in tact through the run and blocking develops in and around the NAO region. There's no specific fantasy snow, but you wouldn't have to change very much to have a few legitimate shots at something. If the pattern evolves like the GFS is showing, it won't take long for people to get excited. Still a big IF though. Anyway, I'm very happy with that run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Big fail on the PV split, it battles the warming, but the warming fades and it re-stregthens. If this is correct it's going to be Feb before a split occurs, or I should say, if a split were to occur. Unicorn. There's been a lot of talk about the models being waffling back and forth. I don't think that's really the case. Except for those insane runs two days ago, the models seem consistent with keeping the ridge a bit too far off the coast and dumping the cold in the southwest and central us. I think were toast till mid January at earliest. Punt. Don't hate... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 PARA is really close to a big one. One thing I want to see by Sunday. Does the GFS continue to relax the SE ridge allowing colder air to spill in? Do those big highs get better placement? Where does the PV actually end up dropping? Lots of questions still need to be answered before we close the book entirely on next week. The Day 7-10 pattern is not far from an Ice setup, we just need the timing of the hp's over the plains/stj cutoff ejection to be right. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 I agree...for everyone who is doom and gloom about this there are still a lot of things in the air. For instance once cold comes if it does the way the GFS has it.....in a lot of cases in the past it tends to stick around a little longer. Also with good placement of high models tend to undercut how cold it actually is. Just need a little movement and we can get something good....can also go really bad with a little movement. That's the chance you take living in the south though. With the last wedge for yesterdays "severe chances" in SC. It basically waited until after the moisture was gone before it eroded. Models didn't really pick up well on that until the night before (a few hrs before it was supposed to rise to 65-70 degrees). We've learned over the years that wedge scenarios end up colder and longer than forecast even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 First off...Merry Christmas to all the Southeast peeps...and second, if you have Weatherbell Premium, I highly encourage you to watch Bastardi's video today...that should help relieve those who are trying to cliff-dive with each model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 GFS model looks better than the past few runs on the NY storm, we just need those temps to go down more south. Another, dare I say it, *potential* minor snowstorm on Jan 9 is possible. Infact, there's another beautiful cold snap on Jan 9-10 on the GFS... hmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrgolf Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Hello....long time lurker. The key for us if a SSW event happens. If not, I'm clueless on how we can get a period of sustained cold without a -nao. Also qbo is too negative IMHO. Happy holidays!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Hello....long time lurker. The key for us if a SSW event happens. If not, I'm clueless on how we can get a period of sustained cold without a -nao. Also qbo is too negative IMHO. Happy holidays!! Hello! That's a softball. +PNA can easily lead to a cold east....very cold even. Don't count on a SSW. Don't count on a -NAO. You'll rarely see those in winter. Look for the PAC jet to slow and a PNA ridge. Plus, we can get a -AO to displace the PV south, but who knows when/if that actually happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Good news is this run is looking much better in the 240 range The problem with that is, the only one living at the 240 range is Marty McFly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 The problem with that is, the only one living at the 240 range is Marty McFly. He just came back to the present and is selling his heating oil stock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Euro not looking terrible. Close to something on the 30th....New Years storm is more suppressed vs. last nights run. Need that pesky low in the Lakes to get out of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Euro @204 is more suppressed and colder....not cold enough but it takes a little baby step. That energy out west is trucking east and into Texas starting to open up....without anything to keep it suppressed though it won't do much to help us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 End of the Euro sends a huge wrapped up storm to the lakes with what looks like a chance to dislodge everything and bring cold air in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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