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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread II


JoshM

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Wow, dumpster fire, temps don't go below freezing for over two weeks if the last few runs of he GFS are right. Kicking the can to mid jan at this point. 10-15th ish.... That damn can has been kicked for half of met winter with nothing to show.... Bye bye blockbuster winter. Early cold is a killer. Waste a good pattern in early November and you get nada when you need it,

Merry Christmas folks... Maybe late Jan and Feb can get it done? Just one season I would love to see a dec-feb well below normal.... With snow all three months... I think that's what many had in mind when we came into this winter.

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Wow, dumpster fire, temps don't go below freezing for over two weeks if the last few runs of he GFS are right. Kicking the can to mid jan at this point. 10-15th ish.... That damn can has been kicked for half of met winter with nothing to show.... Bye bye blockbuster winter. Early cold is a killer. Waste a good pattern in early November and you get nada when you need it,

Merry Christmas folks... Maybe late Jan and Feb can get it done? Just one season I would love to see a dec-feb well below normal.... With snow all three months... I think that's what many had in mind when we came into this winter.

but Larry said that we should be rooting for November cold because that increased our chances of a cold winter.
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Increased chances doesn't mean guaranteed and the book on 2014-2015 hasn't been written yet. We will see..... I'm not feeling it though.

I guess only time will tell. Its very easy to get frustrated right now, but we have to keep in mind that all it takes for us to have a great winter is one storm. Even in warm winters we can get snow. We just somehow have to be patient, which admittedly is not easy.
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I guess only time will tell. Its very easy to get frustrated right now, but we have to keep in mind that all it takes for us to have a great winter is one storm. Even in warm winters we can get snow. We just somehow have to be patient, which admittedly is not easy.

Agreed. One storm and all is forgotten and forgiven in these parts. Plenty of seasonal examples of that case.

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Agreed. One storm and all is forgotten and forgiven in these parts. Plenty of seasonal examples of that case.

From my perspective, if we get one good snowstorm it's a good winter. I base a winter more on snow than on Temps, but that's just me. 01-02 was warm but we had a good snow. There are more examples as well.I mean if course we would all like wall to wall cold and snowstorm after snowstorm but we have to be realistic. Its the south and that is not the norm.
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There's intense amount of energy in SW USA on 0z Euro run with 500 mb trough little deeper into Eastern USA on New Year's Eve comparing to 12z run from earlier. We'll see what it does in LR.

 

EDIT: Look like 0z run is holding ball of energy back in SW longer this time around, but 540 line is about 100 miles farther south. Could be promising for NC if we can kick the energy to east quicker and meet the cold, but energy got held behind too long this time around.

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Trends are not good at the moment but likely to do a 180 today. GFS PARA at 6z shows that there's still potential....but alas it's one run. Still not going to throw in the towel on New Years until Sunday or so. One thing that I do not like at all is the models last night stepped away from even the big cold air dump in the SW. 

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Good news is ENS models are not horrible from last night or this morning. Plenty of opportunity to sneak something in if this indeed becomes the pattern over the next two weeks. 

I honestly love the look of the 00z Euro ENS this morning... The trough east of Hawaii is larger on the ensembles, the PV is considerably deeper as well. Instead of -230gpm it's -296gpm very strong signal for dropping the PV or core of the cold, over hudson bay or south of hudson. The ridge is improved on the west coast. The flat ridge under the SE seems to be linking up with the other ridge east.The models can continue to correct and lose that west cold in future runs all together, or one can hope. It's just the best you can pull from the models this am but it's not that bad.

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I honestly love the look of the 00z Euro ENS this morning... The trough east of Hawaii is larger on the ensembles, the PV is considerably deeper as well. Instead of -230gpm it's -296gpm very strong signal for dropping the PV or core of the cold, over hudson bay or south of hudson. The ridge is improved on the west coast. The flat ridge under the SE seems to be linking up with the other ridge east.The models can continue to correct and lose that west cold in future runs all together, or one can hope. It's just the best you can pull from the models this am but it's not that bad.

 

This is why I have a feeling we see a turn around today. Hopefully it's the models giving us a Christmas gift!  :weenie:

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If we're going to get a repeating pattern.... If we get a SSW.... If the models are overdoing the SE ridge.... If the trough east of Hawaii.... If the energy dropping into the SW on all the models is wrong.... If the typhoon recurves.... If the MJO is irrelevant.... If ninos mysteriously produce nina conditions.... If the Cubs win the World Series.... If Taco Bell doesn't cause bloating... If, if, if.... Yeah.

Ye of little faith :)  I got 3.6 over about 4 days, after getting .25 over 21 days, so to me, things are looking up...way up :)  Whenever the rain starts to come in daily doses, the cold will come sniffing around.  Those rain pheromones waft over vast areas of landscape, lol, just wait and see.  Of course, this might only apply to me and Waygone and Pbr, Chris, Shack, and El K, down here, but I know you wish us the best :)  Happy Merry All.  T

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This is why I have a feeling we see a turn around today. Hopefully it's the models giving us a Christmas gift!  :weenie:

We really need to see these changes within 7 days. It's driving me crazy seeing the models flip back and forth. It looked like the models were showing the 7 day change a couple of days back but they even backed off at that range. Somebody was half joking about within 3 days and I'm almost for that at this point.

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Model trends have been quite disappointing to me over the last few runs in terms of early Jan. cold potential due to the cold aiming for the SW US. Intense cold aiming that far west of the SE rarely does much good for at least GA/SC/NC. If anything, it is a bad thing on average as that tends to allow for ridging near the SE. Let's hope this awful trend reverses soon. Otherwise, Jan. is liable to not start off too well.

The latest GEFS AO forecast is looking downright ugly:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

Hopefully, the latest two CFSv2's don't come to pass or it would probably be a long, boring Jan and the polar opposite of what I've been expecting: (CFSv2 has shown some skill this close to the month being forecasted, unfortunately):

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20141225.201501.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20141224.201501.gif

Edit: At KATL, Dec. has a good shot at ending up warmer than Nov.

Edit: The 12Z GFS is starting off in the crapper (through 96). Ugly!

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It's becoming quite apparent that the pattern flip that was supposed to be commencing around now is not exactly going as planned.

 

Some people are calling Winter over, some are holding onto the models being totally confused.  I still believe the models are struggling, but they are starting to warm up.  The ensembles are wanting to become warmer, the CFS too.  We are starting to get model signals of a real SE ridge potential.  Multiple runs of different models are wanting to just bury energy in the SW.  It's getting to the point where it can't be ignored especially if many runs of the GFS are trying to bury it back there like the Euro.

 

Overall, things are going a bad way if you wanted cold/snow storms in the first half of Jan.  I could see some ice for many though.  This isn't a forecast by any means, I don't know what will happen.  It just doesn't look too good right now.

 

Seems that some of you guys are expecting to see a change today on the models since the last storm is getting out of the way.  Let's see.

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